Professor Nicky Welton
B.Sc.(Sheff.), M.Sc.(U.C.Lond.), Ph.D.(Bristol)
Expertise
Nicky is a statistician and health economist working on methods to combine evidence from different research studies to evaluate if new healthcare treatments are effective and represent good value for money.
Current positions
Professor in Statistical and Health Economic Modelling
Bristol Medical School (PHS)
Contact
Media contact
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Research interests
Nicky's research interests concern methodology for evidence synthesis, and use of evidence in decision modelling. This includes methods for synthesis of studies informing Markov model parameters, synthesis of evidence on components of complex interventions, bias adjustment in pairwise and network meta-analysis, allowing for uncertainty due to missing data, extrapolation of survival curves, and combining evidence with heterogeneously reported (but related) outcomes. She has also worked on methods and applications of Value of Information calculations that can be used to prioritise and design new research by comparing the expected benefit in the reduction of uncertainty in the optimal policy decision with the cost of a proposed new study. Nicky leads the Multi-Parameter Evidence Synthesis research group, is Director of the NICE Guidelines Technical Support Unit, Co-Director of the Bristol Technology Assessment Group, Associate Editor for the journal Medical Decision Making, a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, and a member of the NICE Technology Appraisals Committee.
Projects and supervisions
Research projects
Real-world treatment effectiveness in people with type 2 diabetes: Maximising the applicability of clinical trials
Principal Investigator
Managing organisational unit
Bristol Medical School (PHS)Dates
03/02/2020 to 31/05/2024
8071 MRC via York - HOD1: Inferring relative treatment effects from combined randomised and oberservational data
Principal Investigator
Managing organisational unit
Bristol Medical School (PHS)Dates
01/01/2019 to 30/06/2022
No Pfizer: Calibration of multiple treatment comparisons using individual patient data
Principal Investigator
Managing organisational unit
Bristol Medical School (PHS)Dates
01/03/2017 to 29/02/2020
NICE Guidelines Technical Support Unit
Role
Co-Investigator
Description
The purpose of the TSU is three-fold:
1. To provide rapid response service to NICE and to the National Collaborating Centres on issues relating to evidence synthesis and economic modelling,
2. To…Managing organisational unit
Bristol Medical School (PHS)Dates
01/04/2016
NIRG: Bayesian evidence synthesis of multiple outcomes
Principal Investigator
Managing organisational unit
Bristol Medical School (PHS)Dates
01/01/2015 to 30/09/2018
Thesis supervisions
Publications
Recent publications
01/01/2023Validating the assumptions of population adjustment
Medical Decision Making
An Efficient Method for Computing Expected Value of Sample Information for Survival Data from an Ongoing Trial
Medical Decision Making
Assessing trial representativeness using Serious Adverse Events
BMC Medicine
Calibrating a network meta-analysis of diabetes trials of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor analogues and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors to a representative routine population: a systematic review protocol
BMJ Open
Cost-effectiveness of topical pharmacological, oral pharmacological, physical and combined treatments for acne vulgaris
Clinical and Experimental Dermatology