Professor Nicky Welton
B.Sc.(Sheff.), M.Sc.(U.C.Lond.), Ph.D.(Bristol)
Expertise
Nicky is a statistician and health economist working on methods to combine evidence from different research studies to evaluate if new healthcare treatments are effective and represent good value for money.
Current positions
Professor in Statistical and Health Economic Modelling
Applied Health Research
Contact
Press and media
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Research interests
Nicky's research interests concern methodology for evidence synthesis, and use of evidence in decision modelling. This includes methods for synthesis of studies informing Markov model parameters, synthesis of evidence on components of complex interventions, bias adjustment in pairwise and network meta-analysis, allowing for uncertainty due to missing data, extrapolation of survival curves, and combining evidence with heterogeneously reported (but related) outcomes. She has also worked on methods and applications of Value of Information calculations that can be used to prioritise and design new research by comparing the expected benefit in the reduction of uncertainty in the optimal policy decision with the cost of a proposed new study. Nicky leads the Multi-Parameter Evidence Synthesis research group, is Director of the NICE Guidelines Technical Support Unit, Co-Director of the Bristol Technology Assessment Group, Associate Editor for the journal Medical Decision Making, a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, and a member of the NICE Technology Appraisals Committee.
Projects and supervisions
Research projects
Hip Implant Prosthesis Programme For The Younger THR Patient (BTC)
Principal Investigator
Role
Co-Investigator
Description
We are trying to find out which type of hip implant is best for patients under 70 with osteoarthritis who are having a hip replacement.
There are three well-established and successful…Managing organisational unit
Bristol Medical School (THS)Dates
01/07/2023 to 30/06/2031
NICE Guidelines Technical Support Unit (2023-2026)
Principal Investigator
Managing organisational unit
Bristol Medical School (PHS)Dates
01/04/2023 to 31/03/2026
NIHR Evidence Synthesis Group
Principal Investigator
Role
Co-Investigator
Description
Bristol Evidence Synthesis Group (ESG) is one of nine, UK-based, research groups commissioned by the National Institute for Health and Care Research Evidence Synthesis Programme to identify, appraise, and combine…Managing organisational unit
Bristol Medical School (PHS)Dates
01/04/2023 to 31/03/2028
Bristol TAG
Role
Co-Principal Investigator
Managing organisational unit
Bristol Medical School (PHS)Dates
01/04/2022 to 31/03/2027
Real-world treatment effectiveness in people with type 2 diabetes: Maximising the applicability of clinical trials
Principal Investigator
Managing organisational unit
Bristol Medical School (PHS)Dates
03/02/2020 to 31/05/2024
Thesis supervisions
Publications
Recent publications
24/06/2026Assessing cost effectiveness in oncology treatment sequences: a review of pathway modeling methods for health technology assessment
International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care
Cancer risk of Janus kinase inhibitors and other advanced therapies in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis of RCTs
Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
Consensus-Based Quality Assurance Framework for NICE Technology Appraisal Models: InterTASC Quality Assurance Checklist for External Assessment Groups (IQ-Check)
PharmacoEconomics
Diagnostic accuracy of surveillance tests for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis: a systematic review and network meta-analysis
BMJ Open Gastroenterology
Latent Class Log-Linear Models for Estimating Diagnostic Test Accuracy Without a Gold Standard: A Simulation Study
Statistics in Medicine



