Dr Jonty Rougier
PhD, BSc
Current positions
Honorary Professor
School of Mathematics
Contact
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Research interests
My research concerns uncertainty and risk assessment for things that have the potential to cause substantial harm ('hazards').
- One part of my research focuses on particular hazards, like volcanoes, avalanches, or floods. For example: predicting future events, combining historical observations, expertise, and modelling.
- Another part focuses on general methods that are applicable across hazards, and across the full range of people connected with the hazard. This is mainly for strategic planning.
- Then there is the tricky question of how to work within an organisation to improve risk assessment, possibly by reducing ambiguity, possibly by introducing new tools, or new ways of interpreting existing practices.
- Finally, I have found that—as a practising statistician—it is important to have a sound grasp of the theoretical and philosophical fundamentals of Statistics, and also of the history of our subject.
PhD projects
A range of applied statistics projects looking at uncertainty and risk assessment in natural hazards, such as: volcanoes, earthquakes and landslides, extreme weather and floods, space weather. Projects in these areas are typically characterised by limited and poor-quality observations, and often also by a limited understanding of the underlying processes. Mathematical technique is important, but clarity of thought is essential -- including on important foundational questions like "How does Statistics help people to make better choices when managing risk?" This is about addressing the right question, achieving a defensible answer, and communicating the results.
Projects and supervisions
Research projects
Interactive visualisation of Antarctic mass trends from 2003 until present
Principal Investigator
Role
Co-Investigator
Description
JGI Seed Corn funded project for web visualisation of mass trends from the NERC Resolving Antarctic Mass TrEndS (RATES) project.Managing organisational unit
School of Geographical SciencesDates
01/12/2018 to 01/07/2019
NERC Open Innovation Internship
Principal Investigator
Managing organisational unit
School of MathematicsDates
01/11/2016 to 30/06/2017
Global ice and ocean mass trends
Principal Investigator
Role
Co-Principal Investigator
Description
GlobalMass is a 5 year ERC-funded project which aims to – for the first time at a global scale – rigorously combine satellite and in-situ data related to different aspects…Managing organisational unit
School of Geographical SciencesDates
01/08/2016 to 30/11/2022
Scoping study on the analysis, propogation and communication of probability, uncertainty and risk. (SAPPUR)
Principal Investigator
Managing organisational unit
School of MathematicsDates
01/06/2009 to 01/11/2009
PALAEOQUMP - ROUGIER - TRANSFER FROM DURHAM
Principal Investigator
Managing organisational unit
School of MathematicsDates
01/01/2007 to 01/01/2008
Publications
Recent publications
12/04/2022Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last two decades from a joint Bayesian inversion
Cryosphere
The scope of the Kalman filter for spatio-temporal applications in environmental science
Environmetrics
An integrated, data-driven approach for estimating global glacial isostatic adjustment, VLM, land ice, hydrology and ocean mass trends
Antarctic Peninsula Mass Trends and driving processes from 2003 until present through assimilation of geodetic data using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model approach
Decadal Timescale Correlations Between Global Earthquake Activity and Volcanic Eruption Rates
Geophysical Research Letters