MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit (IEU) Seminar Series

Title: ‘Doubt is not pleasant, but certainty is absurd.’ - Voltaire. Hype and humility in evidence. 

Abstract: Caught between the clamour to be heard and the modesty of what we often truly know, pity the poor public. What should they believe? Politics (of course), but also the serious media and even science often seem beset by hype and distortion. In fact, I’ll bet that outside your speciality you’re likewise often in the dark - and I’ll offer examples to suggest that even respected public data and other 'knowledge' claims false authority - being a lot more sketchy than it lets on. 

Is living in a world of overconfident claims from all corners damaging people's confidence in anything? They could be forgiven for growing cynical. The exaggeration of the strength of our conclusions - which too often leads to retraction, revision, policy failure and the like - seems driven in part because we fear the reaction to uncertainty and ignorance. Uncertainty, we think, undermines our authority. Admitting ignorance impresses no-one. Confidence, on the other hand, inspires belief and action. Or so we say. But what if uncertainty is not merely more faithful to the evidence, but also a spur to more robust methods, central to trustworthiness, and actually enhances credibility and authority? I’ll report recent work on aspects of these questions. It was once said that the greatest menace to progress is not ignorance, but the illusion of knowledge. If science is to stand apart from the noise and retain public credibility, maybe the urgent task is to reject the language of hype and re-assert its humility.

Biography: 

Michael is a writer and broadcaster best known as the creator of More or Less on Radio 4. His main interest is quantitative and research evidence in public argument. His latest book, The Hidden Half, describes the enigmatic variations that place severe limits on our understanding - limits that are often unacknowledged in research, public data, and public debate, and make much of what we think we know unreliable. 

All welcome