The study report, funded by the Youth Endowment Fund (YEF) and produced by researchers at the Universities of Bristol and Hull, also shows that children who are absent for 20% or more of the time are also more likely to become involved in violence and offending.

The relationship between suspension, exclusion, absence and later offending is a well-established finding supported by other evidence. However, what has previously been harder to establish is whether the act of being absent, suspended or excluded leads to later involvement in crime or violence or whether it is just that excluded, suspended or absent children have other difficulties that make them more likely to offend. 

While other studies have attempted to control for other factors, this study goes further in adjusting for a wider array of risk and contextual factors, including measures of behavioural difficulties.

Due to the nature of the study and the limitations around sample size, we cannot definitively conclude that suspensions, exclusions and absences have a causal impact on later involvement in crime and violence. However, this study does suggest that suspensions, exclusions and absences are likely to be risk factors for later involvement in violence, even once an array of other contextual and risk factors are accounted for.

This reinforces the urgent need for policymakers to empower schools to provide the right support to the most vulnerable children when they are suspended, excluded or absent.

Suspensions are at a record high

Latest government data shows the use of suspension in England is rising. In 2022–23, suspensions reached a record high of 9.3 suspensions per 100 pupils (786,961 suspensions). These rates compare to a pre-pandemic rate of 5.4 (438,265 suspensions) in 2018-19. 

Deciding whether to suspend a child is extremely challenging, requiring headteachers to balance the child’s needs with those of the wider school community. Without knowing the cause of rising suspensions, it may well be that they are the appropriate course of action in many circumstances. In fact, new YEF-funded Teacher Tapp surveying reveals only 2% of headteachers in England believe the suspension rate is too high.

But being suspended or excluded from school can have serious implications if the right support isn’t provided. 

Suspended children are missing out on vital support

Although government guidance advises schools to provide tailored reintegration plans for pupils suspended for five days or less, a YEF-funded 2025 Teacher Tapp survey of senior leaders revealed gaps in implementation. Only: 

• 30% of headteachers and senior leaders set and marked schoolwork for suspended children. 

• 9% offered academic catch-up support when they returned.

• 7% provided a mentor to support the suspended child. 

Many children who face repeated suspensions or are at risk of exclusion require more targeted, intensive interventions to improve their behaviour. Research shows that activities that can be delivered in schools — such as mentoring,  sports programmes and Cognitive Behavioural Therapy — can help reduce behavioural difficulties and help prevent violence. 

The YEF’s recently released Education Policy, Children and Violence report proposes eight key recommendations to policymakers across England and Wales to maximise the potential of the education system to keep children safe from violence. 

Recommendations include:

• Amend Ofsted’s proposed inspection toolkits to assess how settings support suspended children and safeguard children from violence.

• Provide £100m of targeted funding over five years to deliver evidence-based violence reduction activities for children most at risk of involvement in violence (including children who have been suspended or excluded).

• Scale up impactful attendance improvement interventions and publish a strategy to improve attendance in alternative provision.

Jon Yates, CEO of the Youth Endowment Fund, said: “Suspended children are too often overlooked. We need to focus efforts on supporting children and young people at risk of suspension and exclusion as well as those who already have been.

There are practical steps that governments in England and Wales can take –strengthening school inspections, improving training and targeting resources – to get the right support to children who need it.”

Drs Alison Teyhan and Rosie Cornish, the study’s authors from Bristol Medical School: Population Health Sciences (PHS), added: "We have known about the link between being out of school – either through skipping school or through exclusion – and later violence using official education and crime records, but these records only pick up police-recorded crime, and have relatively little information about the causes of violence that might have been present before a child began to miss school or was suspended or excluded.

“Using the Children of the 90s dataset linked to education records and local police data, we have been able to look at how suspension, exclusion and persistent absence are related to both officially recorded offending and self-reported violence. Even after taking factors such as child behaviour and family socio-economic circumstances into account, the connection between offending and being out of school – either voluntarily or through exclusion - remains. 

“This study highlights that these children are a vulnerable group in need of high-quality support. Meeting these needs early would likely reduce the need for suspension and exclusion, keep children attending, and potentially reduce later harm to society through violence and other crime."

Mark Vickers MBE, CEO of Olive Academies, added: “Children and young people can succeed at school with the right support around them. We’ve found that a collaborative approach that works with the child alongside parents, their teachers, the local authority and our own experienced team is crucial for every young person we work with.

"Attendance for our programmes is high and we're seeing pupils grow in confidence as they develop social skills and improve their emotional regulation.”

Report

'Association between school exclusion, suspension, absence and violent crime' by Dr Jasmine Rollings, Dr Rosie Cornish, Dr Alison Teyhan and Professor Iain Brennan online at The Youth Endowment Fund

Channel 4 News ran a story about the report on Friday 6 June.  To watch the piece visit Excluded children more likely to offend, charity finds.