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This presentation is focused on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and how these disrupted the main trade routes in Southern Africa. The Southern African region comprises fourteen countries. We consider two trade routes starting from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) through Zambia, Botswana to South Africa (route 1) and the trade route from the DRC through Zambia, Zimbabwe to South Africa (route 2). The presentation considers COVID-19 protocols and how over-enforcement of these protocols in various countries along the trade routes resulted in loss of the GDP of these countries. As a background check, we will investigate the level of understanding of infectious diseases in general among inhabitants of this region (we present results of the Botswana survey as an example). Based on this knowledge of infectious diseases, we answer the question were lockdowns necessary to curb the infection rate within each country? Were human and vehicle movement restrictions across the boarders based on scientific facts or fear? We present results of multi-patch models and compare the severity of COVID-19 in each country and look for evidence of imported/exported infections influencing the increase in local infections as justification for enforcement of the protocols.
Edward Lungu is a professor of mathematics at the Botswana International University of Science and Technology. His Master's degree and Ph.D. were awarded by the University of Bristol. Edward Lungu has been described as a "fundamental person" in the development of teaching and research in applied mathematics in Southern Africa. He is Co-Initiator and Board Member of several International Programs (e.g. Southern Africa Mathematical Sciences Association - SAMSA) and other capacity building programs in Mathematics. Professor Lungu has developed models in epidemiology, immunology, ecology and hydrology. He received many national and international awards for his dedication for capacity building and education support. In 2016, he became the first African to be awarded the Philip Griffith Award for his work in Biomathematics, given by the Advanced Study Institute, Princeton University. Between 2013-2023, he has lead a very active research programme under the Simons Fundation, USA, to run postgraduate studies in Sub-Sahara Africa.