Professor Thomas, Professor of Risk Management in the Department of Civil Engineering, has evaluated options available to national governments to combat the COVID-19 pandemic using the J-value method, previously applied to mass evacuation scenarios. The method empirically assesses expenditure of a safety scheme against the value of life and potential gains in life expectancy.
The evidence is based on recent research published in Nanotechnology Perceptions, as well as the original J-value work published in 2017. The analysis provided by Professor Thomas assesses four options for exiting lockdown in context of the economic and life expectancy impact of these measures.
Assessment of four options available to the UK Government
The four options evaluated were:
- Option 1: keep the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, below 1.0 (Government's currently declared policy)
- Option 2: move out as quickly as possible without overstraining the health services
- Option 3: move out completely in 2020 while minimising Covid-19 cases
- Option 4: move out of lockdown as fast as possible
The analysis suggests that Option 3 would be the optimal choice to minimise the nation’s total loss of life and ensure a quicker economic recovery to avoid additional deaths from factors other than covid-19. However this suggests a second, large wave of infections is expected and therefore the challenge will be to manage and contain this to ensure health services are not overwhelmed.