Downward counterfactual analysis for extreme geohazards - Dr Gordon Woo

We are pleased to host a seminar by Dr Gordon Woo on the topic of: Downward counterfactual analysis for extreme geohazards.

Abstract:

The historical record of extreme events is the basic dataset for risk communication. Whenever losses occur, consideration is given as to how these losses might have been mitigated. But special insights can be gained by considering how the losses might have been worse: these are downward counterfactuals. The use of downward counterfactual analysis is illustrated with a wide range of geohazard examples, including the Turkish earthquakes of 6 February 2023, and the Stromboli volcanic paroxysm of 3 July 2019.

Biography:

Gordon is a catastrophist or catastrophe-risk expert at Risk Management Solutions (RMS). Gordon has worked in RMS in London since 2000 and is a world-renowned expert on catastrophe risk consultancy and catastrophe science with 30 years' experience encompassing both man-made and natural sciences. RMS is a pioneering software development company in the catastrophe risk industry. Among other things, RMS builds risk models for clients to evaluate global risk. 

If you would like to do pre-reading, he regularly writes blog posts on RMS's site, the most recent of which is on the RMS website (with a brief biography at the bottom).