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Dr Brian Dangerfield

Dr Brian Dangerfield

Dr Brian Dangerfield
B.Sc.Econ(Wales), Dip Ind Admin(Brad.), PhD(Salf.)


Office 2.17B
Howard House,
Queen's Avenue, Bristol BS8 1SD
(See a map)

+44 (0) 117 39 40519


Brian's main research interest is in the application of system dynamics simulation models to policy-level issues in economics, business, health and public policy generally. Domains have included the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS, patient pathways, managing capacity enhancements in tertiary care, economies of scale and capacity management in the steel industry, macro-economic modelling and competitiveness in the UK construction industry. In 2005 he completed a major economic modelling project for the government of the State of Sarawak in East Malaysia. He was Principal Investigator on an EPSRC-financed project (joint with Reading and Loughborough universities) examining the systemic basis for sustained competitiveness in the UK construction industry. This project won the 2009 Chartered Institute of Building Innovation Research Paper award.  Other awards include the Operational Research Society President's Medal in 1991 and their Goodeve Medal in 2005. In 2018 he was awarded a gold medal from the UK System Dynamics Society for an Outstanding Contribution to UK System Dynamics. From 2002-2011 he was the Executive Editor of the System Dynamics Review, the flagship publication of the international System Dynamics Society and a member of the Society's Policy Council. In 2009 he was Section Editor for System Dynamics in the Encyclopaedia of Complexity & Systems Science (Springer, 2009). He was a member of the National Council of the Operational Research Society from 1989-1991 and returned as a member of their General Council and Education & Research Committee from 2012-2017.  During 2009-10 he was the President of both the Economics Chapter and the UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Society. He has supervised research on topics such as the effects of the introduction of a Minimum Wage; the future for health & social security funding given an ageing population; the sustainability of mass tourism in island tourist economies; the consequences of changing the balance of health care;  the rise and fall of superclubs in dance music culture; the supply of and demand for UK higher educated manpower; the provision of a more vocationally skilled human resource base from schools in Sarawak; manufacturing supply chain modelling; and modelling reverse logistics policies. A recently successful doctoral student has been researching childhood obesity using system dynamics and this is a major current project directed at population-level modelling of interventions designed to reverse observed trends. A development of this is an analysis of the dynamics of interventions at the population level in a social marketing context: how can campaigns be structured and managed to yield the most significant effects on behaviour change?  Brian has also supervised the modelling undertaken by a PhD candidate from the University of the West Indies who has developed a system dynamics model to act as an early warning system of twin crises in sovereign and banking debts. Finally, he is a co-editor of the book ‘Discrete-event simulation and system dynamics for management decision-making’, Wiley, 2014.



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