18 February 2009
In an interview on Radio 4's PM programme, Professor Paul Gregg (Economics Department and CMPO) considered it very likely that the unemployment count in the UK will reach 3 million over the current recession. He estimated the cost to the Treasury of unemployment to average around £8,000 per unemployed person per year, a figure that includes lost tax revenues to government (around £3,000 per person-year) as well as the direct costs of unemployment and other benefits.In the interview Professor Gregg also stressed the 'scarring' effects of long-term unemployment. He estimated that long periods of unemployment reduce life-time earnings by around 10-12% as many unemployed individuals resume employment in low-pay jobs with less secure tenure.
Use this link for an MP3 version of the full interview.
Unemployment won't stop rising until the end of 2010 at the earliest.