Economics Seminars: Pauline Rossi (Amsterdam University)

2 October 2019, 1.00 PM - 2 October 2019, 2.00 PM

Pauline Rossi (Amsterdam University)

1B6 Seminar Room, Priory Road Complex

Title: Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China’s Family Planning Policies

Abstract: This paper examines the spillover effects of large-scale policy-induced fertility changes in the 1970s in China. We exploit the facts that China’s family planning policies target only the ethnic majority – the Han Chinese – and that there are variations across localities in pre-policy fertility level, Han dominance and the year since when family planning policies have been effective. Using a representative sample of ethnic minority women born in 1926–1945 who were exempted from family planning policies, we find statistically and economically significant spillover effects of the Han-targeting policies on completed fertility of ethnic minorities. Using an instrumental variable approach, we estimate that a minority woman will reduce her fertility by 0.6 children if the average fertility in her reference group is reduced by one. The estimates are robust to various specifications. They provide evidence of social multipliers in population policies.

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