School Seminar - Integrating hazard, exposure, vulnerability and resilience for risk and emergency management in a volcanic context: the ADVISE model - Costanza Bonadonna

We are pleased to announce a School Seminar by Costanza Bonadonna on the topic of: Integrating hazard, exposure, vulnerability and resilience for risk and emergency management in a volcanic context - the ADVISE model.

Abstract:

Risk assessments in volcanic contexts are complicated by the multi-hazard nature of both unrest and eruption phases, which frequently occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. As an attempt to capture the multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of volcanic risk, we developed an integrAteD VolcanIc risk asSEssment (ADVISE) model that focuses on two temporal dimensions that authorities have to address in a volcanic context: short-term emergency management and long-term risk management. The output of risk assessment in the ADVISE model is a function of physical, functional, and systemic damage as well as resilience, where physical, functional and systemic damage are determined combining the available information on hazard, exposed systems and vulnerability. The ADVISE model allows for qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk assessment depending on the final objective and on the available information. For the sake of illustration of the ADVISE model, we focus here on the risk assessment of the transport system in relation to the tephra fallout associated with a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle at Vulcano island (Italy). The ADVISE model can also be combined with additional analysis that can inform emergency management, such as the efficiency assessment of an evacuation. Pre-eruption simulations of Vulcano island carried out with a dedicated agent-based simulation tool show that the type of evacuation (staged or simultaneous) can optimize the number of people evacuated in time, with the simultaneous evacuation being more efficient at removing people from the island than the staged evacuation, especially in the low touristic season. Pedestrian versus hybrid evacuation scenarios are also explored to identify the best evacuation strategies in case of eruption. 

Bio:

Costanza Bonadonna received her degree in Geology from the University of Pisa, Italy, and PhD from the University of Bristol. She was then awarded the position of SOEST Young Investigator at the University of Hawaii and was later appointed the position of Assistant Professor at the University of South Florida.  She is now Full Professor at the Department of Earth Sciences of the University of Geneva, Head of the CERG-C Program (http://www.unige.ch/hazards/) and Dean of the Faculty of Science. She is currently also the president of Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology (VGP) Section of the American Geophysical Union and the president of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI). Her research focuses on various aspects of explosive volcanism and volcanic risk based on the integration of field, experimental and numerical approaches (http://www.unige.ch/hazards/about/people/bonadonna/).