6 February 2012
Blackett Review Panel for Strategic Shocks: High Impact-Low Probability Events Facing the UK
In Autumn 2010 the UK Government commissioned a panel of internationally regarded experts in the field of risk management, including the University of Bristol Prof Patrick Godfrey (Systems Centre, Engineering Faculty), Prof Philip Bond (Visiting Professor, Engineering Faculty) and Prof Willy Aspinall (Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards and Risk Science, School of Earth Sciences ) to explore how the Government could best identify and plan for 'black swan events' (characterised as events that are rare, extremely impactful and only retrospectively predictable).
Bringing together academics, industry, and government scientists, the panel addressed the strategic issues of preparedness and the UK Government's use of risk analysis techniques to avoid strategic shock, examining a range of issues including the national risk assessments and definitions of 'reasonable worst case' preparedness scenarios.
Blackett Review of High Impact Low Probability Risks report (PDF, 599kB), published in January 2012, identifies several recommendations for further strengthening the UK Government’s approaches to addressing these types of risk.