Dr Tamsin Edwards

Dr Tamsin Edwards
MPhys, PhD(Manc)

Research Associate

Area of research

Uncertainty in earth system modelling

Office F1, 12 Berkeley Square
University Road,
Clifton, Bristol BS8 1SS
(See a map)

+44 (0) 117 3314152
tamsin.edwards@
bristol.ac.uk

Summary

Favourite quote: "If most climate scientists were like Tamsin, there'd be hardly any sceptics".

PLOS climate blog: "All Models Are Wrong".

Media CV: experience, A/V links, testimonials, and CV.

RESEARCH INTERESTS

My PhD was in particle physics, on diffractively produced Z bosons. My research interests are in quantifying uncertainty in predictions from earth system models. I'm particularly interested in Bayesian approaches to this problem, in which probability is a degree of ‘belief’ based on current information, rather than an observed frequency.

I'm funded by the EU Framework 7 programme ice2sea, which aims to improve projections of the contribution of ice to future sea level changes over the next 200 years. My work has included experimental design and statistical analysis for several topics: a probabilistic prediction for Antarctica, the feedback between surface mass balance and ice sheet surface height in Greenland, the effect of meltwater on glacier sliding in Greenland, and comparing predictions from different ice sheet models.

As a side-project I'm continuing work from the NERC project PalaeoQUMP, studying past climates to estimate uncertainties in future predictions. For this I performed ‘perturbed physics’ ensemble simulations of the Mid-Holocene (6000 cal yr BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 cal yr BP) climates using the UK Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. We aim to estimate climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ and make palaeoclimate reconstructions that include both information from both proxies and climate models. An important part of this is trying to estimate how successful climate models are in simulating the real world ("model discrepancy").

I worked on the NERC scoping study SAPPUR to define a research programme on the analysis, propagation and communication of uncertainty and risk in natural hazard science. I prepared the sections on hydrometeorological hazards (droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation, and wind storms), both today and how they might change in the future. The study led to a book, "Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards" by Cambridge University Press, to which I contributed two chapters.

I am a member of SUPRAnet (Studying Uncertainty in Palaeoclimate Reconstruction: a network), a group of researchers that aims to improve the quantification of uncertainty in palaeoclimate reconstructions.

PUBLICATIONS

See Publications and below.

In preparation

Edwards, T.L., Rougier, J.C. and Collins, M. Multiple palaeo-archive constraints on climate sensitivity.

In review

Annan, J.D., Crucifix, M., Edwards, T.L. and Paul, A. Parameter estimation using Paleo-Data Assimilation. Invited contribution, PAGES News.

Edwards, T.L., X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-chalet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet and C. Ritz. (2013) Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet, Part I: Parameterisation. The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 635-674.

Edwards, T.L., X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-chalet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet and C. Ritz. (2013) Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet, Part II: Projections. The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 675-708.

Edwards, T.L., Annan, J.D., Crucifix, M., Gebbie, G. and Paul, A. Best-of-both-worlds estimates for timeslices of the past. Invited contribution, PAGES News.

Hakim, G., Annan, J., Broenniman, S., Crucifix, M., Edwards, T.L., Goosse, H., van der Schrier, G. and Widman, M. Overview of data assimilation methods. Invited contribution, PAGES News.

Payne, A.J., S.L. Cornford, D.F. Martin, C. Agosta, M.R. van den Broeke, T.L. Edwards, R.M. Gladstone, H.H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, A.M. Le Brocq, S.M. Ligtenberg, W.H. Lipscomb, E.G. Ng, S.R. Shannon , R. Timmerman and D.G. Vaughan. Impact of uncertainty in climate forcing on projections of the West Antarctic ice sheet over the 21st and 22nd centuries. Submitted to Earth and Planetary Science Letters.

Ritz, C., Durand, G., Edwards, T.L., Payne, A.J., Peyaud, V. and Hindmarsh, R.C.A. Bimodal probability of the dynamic contribution of Antarctica to future sea level. Submitted to Nature.

Shannon, S.R., A.J. Payne, I.D. Bartholomew, M.R. van den Broeke, T.L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, D. Mair, P. Nienow, M. Perego, S.F. Price, C.J.P.P Smeets, A.J. Sole, R.S.W. van de Wal and T. Zwinger. Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise. Submitted to PNAS.

In press

Barrand, N.E., R.C.A. Hindmarsh, R.J. Arthern, C.R. Williams, J. Mouginot, B. Scheuchl, E. Rignot, S. R.M. Ligtenberg, M, R. van den Broeke, T. L. Edwards, A.J. Cook, and S. B. Simonsen (2013). Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet to warming scenarios to 2200. Journal of Glaciology, in press.

Goelzer, H., P. Huybrechts, J.J. Fürst, M.L. Andersen, T.L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, F.M. Nick, A.J. Payne and S. Shannon. Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations. Journal of Glaciology, in press.

Nick, F.M., Vieli, A., Andersen, M.L., Joughin, I., Payne, A.J., Edwards, T.L., Pattyn, F. and Roderik van de Wal. Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s major outlet glaciers in a warming climate. Nature, in press.

Book chapters

Edwards, T.L. (2013) Hydrometeorological hazards under future climate change, In: Rougier, J., Hill, L.J. and Sparks, S. [eds], Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-107-00619-5. pp. 151-189.

Edwards, T.L. and Challenor, P.G., (2013) Risk and uncertainty in hydrometeorological hazards, In: Rougier, J., Hill, L.J. and Sparks, S. [eds], Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-107-00619-5. pp. 100-150.

Non peer-reviewed

Ford. E.A. (ed.) [Vaughan, D.G., Trouvilliez, A., Smeets, P., Edwards, T.L., Payne, A.J., Durand, G., Timmermann, R., Ridley, J., van den Broeke, M., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Bamber, J.L. and Barletta, V.] (2013), Sea-level change and Europe: Synthesis of ice2sea: Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level riseice2sea synthesis report. The ice2sea Consortium, Cambridge, UK.

Rae, J; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G; Edwards, T; Fettweis, X; Gregory, J; Hewitt, H; Lowe, J; Lucas-Picher, P; Mottram, R; Payne, T; Ridley, J; Shannon, S; Van de Berg, W.J.; Van de Wal, R; Van den Broeke, M. (2011). Twenty-first century climate change in Greenland: a comparative analysis of three Regional Climate Models. HCTN 90. Nov 2011

Edwards, T.L. (2009), Risk and Uncertainty in Hydrometeorological Hazards, NERC scoping study ‘Analysis, Propagation and Communication of Probability, Uncertainty and Risk’.

PRESENTATIONS

Many of my conference presentations and lectures can be found on my Academia.edu page.

PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT

I do a lot of science communication and public engagement, including:

blogging about earth system model uncertainty: allmodelsarewrong.com now hosted at PLOS;
tweeting under the name of @flimsin;
being interviewed by the media;
giving talks and being on Q&A panels;
designing interactive exhibits for science festivals;
reviewing POSTnotes from the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology.

Biography

I started at the University of Bristol in 2006, after my PhD in high energy physics and MPhys at the University of Manchester.

Projects I have worked, or am currently working, for:

Teaching

Senior Associate Teacher:

State of the Planet; Predicting and Changing the Future; Science and Society; Resilience: for Sustainable Development, 1^st yr UG Open Unit (2011-present).

External teacher:

Climate modelling; Detection & attribution of climate change: for Climate change, 3^rd yr UG Geog., U. of Gloucestershire (2008-2009).

Teacher:

Public engagement in climate science: for Big Ideas in Science, 1^st yr UG Open Unit (2013);
Climate change; Abrupt climate change: for World in Crisis, 1^st yr UG Open Unit (2011);
Land use and vegetation feedbacks (2009-2011); The next million years of climate (2012): for Environmental Impacts & Policy / Society & Nature, 3^rd year UG Geographical Sciences;
Complexity and uncertainty in earth system modelling: for Introduction to Environmental Modelling, 4^th yr UG Earth Sciences (2012);
China and the Environment: for MSc/MRes in Earth System Science (2008);
Public understanding of prediction and uncertainty (2012); Calibration and uncertainty in earth system models (2013): for Cabot/CREDIBLE Summer School on Risk and Uncertainty in Natural Hazards, open to postgraduates, early career researchers, scientists from industry and government agencies (2013).

Demonstrator:

Numerical modelling in R: for Research Methods in Physical Geography / Environment & Society, 2^nd yr UG Geographical Sciences (2012);
Field trip, 1^st yr UG Geographical Sciences (2008-2009).

Many of my lectures can be found on my Academia.edu page.