I'm interested in assessing uncertainty for models of the earth system. My PhD was in particle physics (diffractive Z bosons). Since moving into climate science I've done climate modelling, experimental design and analysis for future sea level projections, and dabbled in vegetation and ice sheet modelling. I've also reviewed and recommended best practice in uncertainty assessment and communication in lots of different areas of earth system science, particularly in climate and extreme weather.
I'm currently funded by the EU Framework 7 programme ice2sea, which aims to improve projections of the contribution of ice to future sea level changes over the next 200 years. As a side-project I'm studying past climates to estimate climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2. I worked on the NERC scoping study SAPPUR defining a research programme on uncertainty and risk in natural hazards. I wrote the part about hydrometeorological hazards (droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation, and wind storms), both today and how they might change in the future. As well as various research programmes this led to a Cambridge University Press book on Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards - pdf of my two chapters on hydrometeorological hazards here. I'm a member of SUPRAnet, a group of researchers that aims to improve the quantification of uncertainty in palaeoclimate reconstructions.
See Publications and below.
Goelzer, H., P. Huybrechts, J.J. Fürst, M.L. Andersen, T.L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, F.M. Nick, A.J. Payne and S. Shannon. Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations. Journal of Glaciology, in press.
Shannon, S.R., A.J. Payne, I.D. Bartholomew, M.R. van den Broeke, T.L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, D. Mair, P. Nienow, M. Perego, S.F. Price, C.J.P.P Smeets, A.J. Sole, R.S.W. van de Wal and T. Zwinger. Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise. PNAS, in press.
Annan, J.D., Crucifix, M., Edwards, T.L. and Paul, A. Parameter estimation using Paleo-Data Assimilation. Invited contribution, PAGES News.
Edwards, T.L., X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-chalet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet and C. Ritz. (2013) Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet, Part I: Parameterisation. The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 635-674.
Edwards, T.L., X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-chalet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet and C. Ritz. (2013) Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet, Part II: Projections. The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 675-708.
Edwards, T.L., Annan, J.D., Crucifix, M., Gebbie, G. and Paul, A. Best-of-both-worlds estimates for timeslices of the past. Invited contribution, PAGES News.
Hakim, G., Annan, J., Broenniman, S., Crucifix, M., Edwards, T.L., Goosse, H., van der Schrier, G. and Widman, M. Overview of data assimilation methods. Invited contribution, PAGES News.
Payne, A.J., S.L. Cornford, D.F. Martin, C. Agosta, M.R. van den Broeke, T.L. Edwards, R.M. Gladstone, H.H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, A.M. Le Brocq, S.M. Ligtenberg, W.H. Lipscomb, E.G. Ng, S.R. Shannon , R. Timmerman and D.G. Vaughan. Impact of uncertainty in climate forcing on projections of the West Antarctic ice sheet over the 21st and 22nd centuries. Submitted to Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
Ford. E.A. (ed.) [Vaughan, D.G., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Agosta, C., Bamber, J.L., Barletta, V., Durand, G., Edwards, T.L., Fettweis, X., Gagliardini, O., Hellmer, H., Holland, P.B., Howard, T., Payne, A.J., Ridley, J., Smeets, P., Spada, G., Timmermann, R., Trouvilliez, A., and van den Broeke, M.] (2013), From Ice to High Seas: synthesis report of ice2sea. The ice2sea Consortium, Cambridge, UK.
Rae, J; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G; Edwards, T; Fettweis, X; Gregory, J; Hewitt, H; Lowe, J; Lucas-Picher, P; Mottram, R; Payne, T; Ridley, J; Shannon, S; Van de Berg, W.J.; Van de Wal, R; Van den Broeke, M. (2011). Twenty-first century climate change in Greenland: a comparative analysis of three Regional Climate Models. HCTN 90. Nov 2011
Edwards, T.L. (2009), Risk and Uncertainty in Hydrometeorological Hazards, NERC Scoping Study on the Analysis, Propagation and Communication of Probability, Uncertainty and Risk (SAPPUR).
Many of my conference presentations and lectures can be found on my Academia.edu page.
PLOS blog: All Models Are Wrong
Media CV: experience, A/V, testimonials.
I started at the University of Bristol in 2006, after my PhD in high energy physics and MPhys at the University of Manchester.
Projects I have worked, or am currently working, for:
Senior Associate Teacher:
Many of my lectures can be found on my Academia.edu page.
View complete publications list in the University of Bristol publications system
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