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Professor Willy Aspinall
Professor Willy Aspinall
Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards and Risk Science
BSc, PhD(Durham), CSci, CGeol
Area of research
Volcanology and seismology
Volcanology and seismology, and the formalised use of expert judgement in decision-making for low probability / high consequence events in circumstances of scientific or engineering uncertainty. Probabilistic assessment of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risks.
I received BSc and PhD degrees in Physics from the University of Durham in 1966 and 1970 respectively. From 1970 to 1983 I was a Research Fellow at the University of the West Indies. From 1983 to 1989 I was Senior Earth Scientist at Principia Mechanica Ltd, and have been Principal Consultant for Aspinall and Associates since 1989.
In 2009 I became Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards & Risk Science at the University of Bristol.
In 2010 I advised the UK Government regarding the volcanic ash clouds following eruptions at Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland.
I am currently a Member of the Scientific Committee of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) International Seismic Safety Centre, The IAEA Specialist Group preparing the Safety Guide on Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation of Nuclear Power Plants, and IAEA Working Group on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment. I am also a Specialist for the UK Nuclear Power Industry Seismic Hazard Working Party.
I was awarded the William Smith Medal by The Geological Society of London in 2012.
- earthquake assessment
- Beven, K, Aspinall, W, Bates, P, Borgomeo, E, Goda, K, Hall, J, Page, T, Phillips, J, Rougier, J, Simpson, M, Smith, P, Stephenson, D, Wagener, T & Watson, M, 2017, Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 1: A review of the issues. Natural Hazards and Earth Science Systems.
- Beven, K, Almeida, S, Aspinall, W, Bates, P, Blazkova, S, Borgomeo, E, Goda, K, Phillips, J, Simpson, M, Smith, P, Stephenson, D, Wagener, T, Watson, M & Wilkins, K, 2017, Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2: Different natural hazard areas. Natural Hazards and Earth Science Systems.
- Sheldrake, T, Sparks, RSJ, Cashman, K, Wadge, G & Aspinall, W, 2016, Similarities and differences in the historical records of lava dome-building volcanoes: Implications for understanding magmatic processes and eruption forecasting. Earth-Science Reviews, vol 160., pp. 240-263
- Bamber, J, Aspinall, W & Cooke, R, 2016, A commentary on “how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise” by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal. Climatic Change.
- Havelaar, AH, Kirk, MD, Torgerson, PR, Gibb, HJ, Hald, T, Lake, RJ, Praet, N, Bellinger, DC, Silva, NRd, Gargouri, N, Speybroeck, N, Cawthorne, A, Mathers, C, Stein, C, Angulo, FJ, Devleesschauwer, B, Adegoke, GO, Afshari, R, Alasfoor, D, Baines, J, Balakrishnan, K, Bin Hamza, WM, Bolger, PM, Chaicumpa, W, Cravioto, A, Döpfer, D, Ehiri, JE, Fazil, A, Ferreccio, C, Fèvre, EM, Hall, G, Kasuga, F, Keddy, KH, Lanata, CF, Lei, H, Liu, X, Manyindo, B, Nasinyama, G, Ongolo-Zogo, P, Pitt, JI & others 2016, World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010. PLoS Medicine, vol 12.
- & Aspinall, W, 2016, Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation. Risk Analysis, vol 36., pp. 191-202
- Tyshenko, MG, Oraby, T, Darshan, S, Westphal, M, Croteau, M, Aspinall, W, ElSaadany, S, Krewski, D & Cashman, N, 2016, Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease. Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A: Current Issues, vol 79., pp. 729-745
- Oraby, T, Tyshenko, MG, Darshan, S, Westphal, M, Croteau, M, Aspinall, W, ElSaadany, S, Krewski, D & Cashman, N, 2016, Using expert judgments to improve chronic wasting disease risk management in Canada. Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A: Current Issues, vol 79., pp. 713-728
- Aspinall, W, Cooke, RM, Havelaar, AH, Hoffmann, S & Hald, T, 2016, Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases. PLoS ONE, vol 11.
- Aspinall, W, 2016, Volcano statistics casebook: Tentative evidence from two near real-time analyses for an earth tide inﬂuence on volcano-seismic events. Statistics in Volcanology, vol 2., pp. 1-13
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