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Professor Willy Aspinall
Professor Willy Aspinall
Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards and Risk Science
BSc, PhD(Durham), CSci, CGeol
Area of research
Volcanology and seismology
Volcanology and seismology, and the formalised use of expert judgement in decision-making for low probability / high consequence events in circumstances of scientific or engineering uncertainty. Probabilistic assessment of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risks.
I received BSc and PhD degrees in Physics from the University of Durham in 1966 and 1970 respectively. From 1970 to 1983 I was a Research Fellow at the University of the West Indies. From 1983 to 1989 I was Senior Earth Scientist at Principia Mechanica Ltd, and have been Principal Consultant for Aspinall and Associates since 1989.
In 2009 I became Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards & Risk Science at the University of Bristol.
In 2010 I advised the UK Government regarding the volcanic ash clouds following eruptions at Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland.
I am currently a Member of the Scientific Committee of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) International Seismic Safety Centre, The IAEA Specialist Group preparing the Safety Guide on Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation of Nuclear Power Plants, and IAEA Working Group on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment. I am also a Specialist for the UK Nuclear Power Industry Seismic Hazard Working Party.
I was awarded the William Smith Medal by The Geological Society of London in 2012.
- earthquake assessment
- Scourse, E, Aspinall, WP & Chapman, N 2015, Using expert elicitation to characterise long-term tectonic risks to radioactive waste repositories in Japan. Journal of Risk Research, vol 18., pp. 364-377
- Hodge, M, Biggs, J, Goda, K & Aspinall, WP 2015, Assessing infrequent large earthquakes using geomorphology and geodesy: the Malawi Rift. Natural Hazards, vol 76., pp. 1781-1806
- Aspinall, WP & Blong, R 2015, Volcanic Risk Management. in: Haraldur Sigurdsson (eds) The Encyclopedia of Volcanoes. Academic Press, pp. 1215-1234
- Neri, A, Bevilacqua, A, Ongaro, TE, Isaia, R, Aspinall, WP & 2015, Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: II. Pyroclastic density current invasion maps.. Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth.
- Bevilacqua, A, Isaia, R, Neri, A, Vitale, S, Aspinall, WP & 2015, Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: I. Vent opening maps. Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth.
- Goda, K, Aspinall, WP, Taylor, C & Taylor, CA 2014, Reply to "Comment on 'Seismic Hazard Analysis for the UK: Sensitivity to Spatial Seismicity Modelling and Ground Motion Prediction Equations' by Katsuichiro Goda, Willy P. Aspinall, and Colin A. Taylor," by Roger M. W. Musson. Seismological Research Letters, vol 85., pp. 189-191
- Aspinall, W & Musson, R 2014, Selfridge's seismograph. Seismological Research Letters, vol 85., pp. 361-364
- Jaiswal, KS, Wald, DJ, Perkins, D, Aspinall, WP & Kiremidjian, AS 2014, Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment. in: G Deodatis, BR Ellingwood, DM Frangopol (eds) Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures. CRC Press, pp. 879-886
- Biggs, J, Ebmeier, SK, Aspinall, WP, Lu, Z, Pritchard, ME, Sparks, RSJ & Mather, TA 2014, Global link between deformation and volcanic eruption quantified by satellite imagery. Nature Communications, vol 5.
- Aspinall, WP & Woo, G 2014, Santorini unrest 2011–2012: an immediate Bayesian belief network analysis of eruption scenario probabilities for urgent decision support under uncertainty. Journal of Applied Volcanology, vol 3.
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