Professor Willy Aspinall

Summary

Volcanology and seismology, and the formalised use of expert judgement in decision-making for low probability / high consequence events in circumstances of scientific or engineering uncertainty. Probabilistic assessment of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risks.

Keywords

• seismology
• Volcanology
• earthquake assessment

Memberships

Organisations

School of Earth Sciences

Academic staff

• Earth Sciences academic staff

Research groups

• Volcanology

Research themes

• Geological Hazards and Risk

Recent publications

• Bamber, JL & Aspinall, W 2013, ‘An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets’. Nature Climate Change, vol 3.
• Sparks, RSJ, Aspinall, WP, Crosweller, HS & Hincks, TK 2013, ‘Uncertainty assessment of volcanic hazards’. in: Jonathan Rougier, RSJ Sparks, L Hill (eds) Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Natural Hazards. Cambridge University Press, pp. 364-397
• Goda, K, Aspinall, WP & Taylor, C 2013, ‘Seismic hazard analysis for the U.K.: sensitivity to spatial seismicity modelling and ground motion prediction equations’. Seismological Research Letters, vol 84., pp. 112-129
• Hincks, TK, Aspinall, WP, Sparks, RSJ, Holcombe, EA & Kern, M 2012, ‘Landslide and avalanche hazard’. in: Jonathan Rougier, RSJ Sparks, L Hill (eds) Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Natural Hazards. Cambridge University Press, pp. 275-316
• Hincks, TK, Aspinall, WP & Sparks, RSJ 2012, ‘Tsunami hazard and risk’. in: Jonathan Rougier, RSJ Sparks, L Hill (eds) Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Natural Hazards., pp. 317-363
• Sparks, RSJ, Aspinall, WP, Chapman, N, Hill, B, Kerridge, D, Pooley, JK & Taylor, C 2012, ‘Catastrophic impacts of natural hazards on technological facilities and infrastructure’. in: Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Natural Hazards. Cambridge University Press, pp. 445-479
• Barsotti, BS, Andronico, D, Carlo, PD, P.J., Aspinall, W & Hincks, T 2011, ‘Quantitative assessment of volcanic ash hazards for health and infrastructure at Mt. Etna (Italy) by numerical simulation’. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, vol 192., pp. 85 - 96
• Flandoli, F, Giorgi, E, Aspinall, W & Neri, A 2011, ‘Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique’. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, vol 96., pp. 1292 - 1310
• Latchman, J, Morgan, F, Aspinall, W & Gay, D 2011, ‘Magnitude production imbalances and the present seismogenicity state of the San Andreas Fault system’. Tectonophysics, vol 511., pp. 134 - 147
• Aspinall, W, M., A, Hincks, T, Mahony, S, Pooley, J, Nadim, ESF & Sparks, R 2011, ‘Volcano Hazard and Exposure in Track II Countries and Risk Mitigation Measures - GFDRR Volcano Risk Study’. The World Bank

View complete publications list in the University of Bristol publications system