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Professor Willy Aspinall
Professor Willy Aspinall
Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards and Risk Science
BSc, PhD(Durham), CSci, CGeol
Area of research
Volcanology and seismology
Volcanology and seismology, and the formalised use of expert judgement in decision-making for low probability / high consequence events in circumstances of scientific or engineering uncertainty. Probabilistic assessment of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risks.
I received BSc and PhD degrees in Physics from the University of Durham in 1966 and 1970 respectively. From 1970 to 1983 I was a Research Fellow at the University of the West Indies. From 1983 to 1989 I was Senior Earth Scientist at Principia Mechanica Ltd, and have been Principal Consultant for Aspinall and Associates since 1989.
In 2009 I became Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards & Risk Science at the University of Bristol.
In 2010 I advised the UK Government regarding the volcanic ash clouds following eruptions at Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland.
I am currently a Member of the Scientific Committee of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) International Seismic Safety Centre, The IAEA Specialist Group preparing the Safety Guide on Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation of Nuclear Power Plants, and IAEA Working Group on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment. I am also a Specialist for the UK Nuclear Power Industry Seismic Hazard Working Party.
I was awarded the William Smith Medal by The Geological Society of London in 2012.
- earthquake assessment
- Goda, K, Wagener, T & Aspinall, WP 2014, Anatomy of natural hazard analysis: uncertainty propagation and visualization.
- Hincks, TK, Komorowski, J-C, Sparks, RSJ & Aspinall, WP 2014, Retrospective analysis of uncertain eruption precursors at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, 1975-77: volcanic hazard assessment using a Bayesian Belief Network approach. Journal of Applied Volcanology, vol 3.
- Jaiswal, K, Wald, D, Perkins, D, Aspinall, WP & Kiremidjian, A 2014, Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment. in: G Deodatis, BR Ellingwood, DM Frangopol (eds) Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures. CRC Press, pp. 879-886
- Goda, K, Aspinall, WP, Taylor, C & Taylor, CA 2014, Reply to "Comment on 'Seismic Hazard Analysis for the UK: Sensitivity to Spatial Seismicity Modelling and Ground Motion Prediction Equations' by Katsuichiro Goda, Willy P. Aspinall, and Colin A. Taylor," by Roger M. W. Musson. Seismological Research Letters, vol 85., pp. 189-191
- Wadge, G & Aspinall, WP 2014, A Review of Volcanic Hazard and Risk Assessments at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1997 to 2011. in: Geoffrey Wadge, Barry Voight, Richard E Robertson (eds) The Eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 2000 to 2010. Geological Society London
- Aspinall, WP & Musson, R 2014, Selfridges seismograph. Seismological Research Letters.
- Goda, K, Aspinall, WP & Taylor, C 2013, Seismic Hazard Analysis for the UK: Sensitivity to Spatial Seismicity Modelling and Ground Motion Prediction Equations. Seismological Research Letters, vol 84., pp. 112-129
- Bamber, JL & Aspinall, WP 2013, An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets. Nature climate change, vol 3., pp. 424-427
- Engwell, SL, Sparks, RSJ & Aspinall, WP 2013, Quantifying uncertainties in the measurement of tephra fall thickness. Journal of Applied Volcanology, vol 2.
- Aspinall, WP & Cooke, R 2013, Expert Elicitation and Judgement. in: JC Rougier, RSJ Sparks, L Hill (eds) Risk and Uncertainty assessment in Natural Hazards. Cambridge University Press, pp. 234-274
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