Dr Thea Hincks

Research summary

I am interested in probabilistic hazard and risk modelling, mapping  and communication of risk, and decision making under uncertainty. I  have written software for performing multi-hazard, multi-scenario  volcanic risk assessments, and code to simulate exposure to  respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat.

Other interests include  Bayesian Networks and the use of expert systems for hazard evaluation  and forecasting. Recent work has included development of a Bayesian Network to investigate the impact of alternative climate change  scenarios on risk associated with deep geological repositories for  nuclear waste, and applying Monte Carlo sampling techniques to volcanic conduit flow models.

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Recent publications

• Sparks, RSJ, Aspinall, WP, Crosweller, HS & Hincks, TK 2013, ‘Uncertainty assessment of volcanic hazards’. in: Jonathan Rougier, RSJ Sparks, L Hill (eds) Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Natural Hazards. Cambridge University Press, pp. 364-397
• Hincks, TK, Malamud, B, Sparks, RSJ, Wooster, MJ & Lynham, T 2012, ‘Risk and management of wildfires’. in: Jonathan Rougier, RSJ Sparks, L Hill (eds) Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Natural Hazards. Cambridge University Press, pp. 398-444

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View complete publications list in the University of Bristol publications system