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Publication - Dr Maximilian Werner

    The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

    Achievements and Priorities


    Schorlemmer, D, Werner, M, Marzocchi, W, Jordan, TH, Ogata, Y, Jackson, DD, Mak, S, Rhoades, DA, Gerstenberger, MC, Hirata, N, Liukis, M, Maechling, P, Strader, A, Taroni, M, Wiemer, S, Zechar, JD & Zhuang, J, 2018, ‘The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities’. Seismological Research Letters, vol 89., pp. 1305-1313


    The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and to improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at the global scale, and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new, and sometimes surprising, insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.

    Full details in the University publications repository