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Unit information: Business and Economic Forecasting in 2021/22

Unit name Business and Economic Forecasting
Unit code EFIMM0109
Credit points 15
Level of study M/7
Teaching block(s) Teaching Block 2 (weeks 13 - 24)
Unit director Dr. Crespo
Open unit status Not open
Pre-requisites

EFIM10020 or equivalent courses.

Co-requisites

None.

School/department School of Economics
Faculty Faculty of Social Sciences and Law

Description including Unit Aims

Forecasting is an integral part of the decision-making activities in business, finance, economics, government, and many other fields. In recent years there have been extensive developments in the methods used in forecasting. In this course we look at different approaches and techniques that help decision makers make the best possible judgments about future events. The course will normally cover forecasting with regression models, stationary and non-stationary time series models and forecasting, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models and vector autoregressive models. The unit will discuss data acquisition as well as data handling. The course will enable students to be better prepared for dissertations, which might require the analysis of time series data. The techniques covered are widely used in Economics, Finance and Management, and a knowledge of them will also enable students to be better able to apply them in their future work. Students selecting this unit should have basic/introductory knowledge in statistics and/or econometrics.

Unit aims:

(1) To provide the core concepts in time series techniques, which are used in Economics and Finance.

(2) Using real-world cases, the unit will enable students to identify appropriate forecasting models for a variety of situations.

(3) To prepare students for the dissertations, which might require the analysis of time series data.

Intended Learning Outcomes

At the end of the course a successful student will be able to: (1) estimate time series models and employ them to make forecasts; (2) to be proficient in the application of different forecasting methodologies in order to use them in their future academic or professional career; (3) to recognize the importance of the concept of non-stationarity, its consequences and how to test for it.

Teaching Information

Teaching will be delivered through a combination of synchronous and asynchronous sessions such as online teaching for large and small group, face-to-face small group classes (where possible) and interactive learning activities

Assessment Information

Coursework (85%) and MCQ Test (15%).

Resources

If this unit has a Resource List, you will normally find a link to it in the Blackboard area for the unit. Sometimes there will be a separate link for each weekly topic.

If you are unable to access a list through Blackboard, you can also find it via the Resource Lists homepage. Search for the list by the unit name or code (e.g. EFIMM0109).

How much time the unit requires
Each credit equates to 10 hours of total student input. For example a 20 credit unit will take you 200 hours of study to complete. Your total learning time is made up of contact time, directed learning tasks, independent learning and assessment activity.

See the Faculty workload statement relating to this unit for more information.

Assessment
The Board of Examiners will consider all cases where students have failed or not completed the assessments required for credit. The Board considers each student's outcomes across all the units which contribute to each year's programme of study. If you have self-certificated your absence from an assessment, you will normally be required to complete it the next time it runs (this is usually in the next assessment period).
The Board of Examiners will take into account any extenuating circumstances and operates within the Regulations and Code of Practice for Taught Programmes.

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