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My work is primarily with very large data sets from horse racing and equestrian sports. I work closely with national and international governing bodies including the International Equestrian Federation (FEI) and the US Jockey Club. My primary research goals include identifying methods and interventions to minimise the risk of injury or fatality in sports and race horses. My work pushes the boundaries of risk prediction in these fields and has informed policy and has impacted on rules changes intended to protect horse welfare.
My main research interests involve statistical/epidemiological analysis including:
- Multivariable logistic regression - to understand the impact for horses exposed to many risk factors at once.
- Data mining - to understand the root causes of risk and extract as much information as possible from a data set.
- Predictive modelling – given the data from past events, it’s possible to predict which horses are amongst those exposed to the greatest risk before their next event.
- Survival analysis - following horses through their careers to understand how their risk level evolves over time.
Current projects include:
- Endurance - developing a predictive model to use “live” during events.
- Eventing - building horse-, rider-, event-, and fence-level models to understand risk factors leading to horse and rider fatalities.
- Show Jumping - modelling to understand the reasons for some horses' careers being cut short.
- Horse racing - large-scale modelling of racing in North America to predict each horse's risk level of fatality and track the risk level over time.
- General - analysing the impact of weather conditions (temperature and humidity) as a significant contributing factor to metabolic problems across racing and equestrian events.
I have also contributed to research in other areas including nerve-blocking of sports horses, infection diagnosis in working equids in Africa, and modelling the spread of sarcoids in donkeys at The Donkey Sanctuary.
Comparison of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) and PCR for the diagnosis of infection withTrypanosoma bruceissp. in equids in The Gambia
The association between clinical parameters recorded at vet gates during Fédération Equestre Internationale endurance rides and the imminent risk of elimination
Equine Veterinary Journal
Equine Veterinary Journal
Fédération Equestre Internationale endurance events: Risk factors for failure to qualify outcomes at the level of the horse, ride and rider (2010–2015)
Fédération Equestre Internationale (FEI) endurance events: Riding speeds as a risk factor for failure to qualify outcomes (2012–2015)