R version 4.5.1 (2025-06-13 ucrt) -- "Great Square Root"
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Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64

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> ############################################################################
> #     MLwiN MCMC Manual
> #
> # 17  Modelling Spatial Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
> #
> #     Browne, W.J. (2009) MCMC Estimation in MLwiN, v2.13. Centre for
> #     Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol.
> ############################################################################
> #     R script to replicate all analyses using R2MLwiN
> #
> #     Zhang, Z., Charlton, C., Parker, R, Leckie, G., and Browne, W.J.
> #     Centre for Multilevel Modelling, 2012
> #     http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/software/R2MLwiN/
> ############################################################################
> 
> # 17.1 Scottish lip cancer dataset . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
> 
> library(R2MLwiN)

R2MLwiN: A package to run models implemented in MLwiN from R
Copyright 2013-2024 Zhengzheng Zhang, Christopher M. J. Charlton, Richard M. A. Parker, William J. Browne and George Leckie

Support provided by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
(Grants RES-149-25-1084, RES-576-25-0032 and ES/K007246/1)

To cite R2MLwiN in publications use:

  Zhengzheng Zhang, Richard M. A. Parker, Christopher M. J. Charlton,
  George Leckie, William J. Browne (2016). R2MLwiN: A Package to Run
  MLwiN from within R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72(10), 1-43.
  doi:10.18637/jss.v072.i10

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

  @Article{,
    title = {{R2MLwiN}: A Package to Run {MLwiN} from within {R}},
    author = {Zhengzheng Zhang and Richard M. A. Parker and Christopher M. J. Charlton and George Leckie and William J. Browne},
    journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
    year = {2016},
    volume = {72},
    number = {10},
    pages = {1--43},
    doi = {10.18637/jss.v072.i10},
  }

The MLwiN_path option is currently set to C:/Program Files/MLwiN v3.15/
To change this use: options(MLwiN_path="<path to MLwiN>")
> # MLwiN folder
> mlwin <- getOption("MLwiN_path")
> while (!file.access(mlwin, mode = 1) == 0) {
+   cat("Please specify the root MLwiN folder or the full path to the MLwiN executable:\n")
+   mlwin <- scan(what = character(0), sep = "\n")
+   mlwin <- gsub("\\", "/", mlwin, fixed = TRUE)
+ }
> options(MLwiN_path = mlwin)
> 
> ## Read lips1 data
> data(lips1, package = "R2MLwiN")
> summary(lips1)
      area            cons        obs              exp            perc_aff     
 Min.   : 1.00   Min.   :1   Min.   : 0.000   Min.   : 1.100   Min.   : 0.000  
 1st Qu.:14.75   1st Qu.:1   1st Qu.: 4.750   1st Qu.: 4.050   1st Qu.: 1.000  
 Median :28.50   Median :1   Median : 8.000   Median : 6.300   Median : 7.000  
 Mean   :28.50   Mean   :1   Mean   : 9.571   Mean   : 9.575   Mean   : 8.661  
 3rd Qu.:42.25   3rd Qu.:1   3rd Qu.:11.000   3rd Qu.:10.125   3rd Qu.:11.500  
 Max.   :56.00   Max.   :1   Max.   :39.000   Max.   :88.700   Max.   :24.000  
      offs             pcons       denom       neigh1          neigh2     
 Min.   :0.09531   Min.   :1   Min.   :1   Min.   : 1.00   Min.   : 0.00  
 1st Qu.:1.39655   1st Qu.:1   1st Qu.:1   1st Qu.: 6.00   1st Qu.:11.75  
 Median :1.83941   Median :1   Median :1   Median :18.00   Median :25.00  
 Mean   :1.84076   Mean   :1   Mean   :1   Mean   :18.41   Mean   :23.14  
 3rd Qu.:2.31500   3rd Qu.:1   3rd Qu.:1   3rd Qu.:27.25   3rd Qu.:31.00  
 Max.   :4.48526   Max.   :1   Max.   :1   Max.   :44.00   Max.   :46.00  
     neigh3          neigh4          neigh5          neigh6     
 Min.   : 0.00   Min.   : 0.00   Min.   : 0.00   Min.   : 0.00  
 1st Qu.:16.75   1st Qu.:12.75   1st Qu.: 0.00   1st Qu.: 0.00  
 Median :32.50   Median :34.00   Median : 0.00   Median : 0.00  
 Mean   :29.27   Mean   :28.23   Mean   :19.09   Mean   :13.59  
 3rd Qu.:41.00   3rd Qu.:44.00   3rd Qu.:45.00   3rd Qu.:29.00  
 Max.   :55.00   Max.   :56.00   Max.   :56.00   Max.   :56.00  
     neigh7           neigh8           neigh9          neigh10       
 Min.   : 0.000   Min.   : 0.000   Min.   : 0.000   Min.   : 0.0000  
 1st Qu.: 0.000   1st Qu.: 0.000   1st Qu.: 0.000   1st Qu.: 0.0000  
 Median : 0.000   Median : 0.000   Median : 0.000   Median : 0.0000  
 Mean   : 5.054   Mean   : 3.339   Mean   : 2.536   Mean   : 0.7679  
 3rd Qu.: 0.000   3rd Qu.: 0.000   3rd Qu.: 0.000   3rd Qu.: 0.0000  
 Max.   :55.000   Max.   :56.000   Max.   :54.000   Max.   :43.0000  
    neigh11           weight1           weight2          weight3      
 Min.   : 0.0000   Min.   :0.09091   Min.   :0.0000   Min.   :0.0000  
 1st Qu.: 0.0000   1st Qu.:0.16667   1st Qu.:0.1667   1st Qu.:0.1667  
 Median : 0.0000   Median :0.25000   Median :0.2250   Median :0.2000  
 Mean   : 0.8929   Mean   :0.25400   Mean   :0.2361   Mean   :0.2004  
 3rd Qu.: 0.0000   3rd Qu.:0.25000   3rd Qu.:0.2500   3rd Qu.:0.2500  
 Max.   :50.0000   Max.   :1.00000   Max.   :0.5000   Max.   :0.3333  
    weight4          weight5           weight6           weight7       
 Min.   :0.0000   Min.   :0.00000   Min.   :0.00000   Min.   :0.00000  
 1st Qu.:0.1061   1st Qu.:0.00000   1st Qu.:0.00000   1st Qu.:0.00000  
 Median :0.1667   Median :0.00000   Median :0.00000   Median :0.00000  
 Mean   :0.1528   Mean   :0.08138   Mean   :0.04566   Mean   :0.01293  
 3rd Qu.:0.2500   3rd Qu.:0.16667   3rd Qu.:0.11458   3rd Qu.:0.00000  
 Max.   :0.2500   Max.   :0.20000   Max.   :0.16667   Max.   :0.14286  
    weight8            weight9            weight10           weight11       
 Min.   :0.000000   Min.   :0.000000   Min.   :0.000000   Min.   :0.000000  
 1st Qu.:0.000000   1st Qu.:0.000000   1st Qu.:0.000000   1st Qu.:0.000000  
 Median :0.000000   Median :0.000000   Median :0.000000   Median :0.000000  
 Mean   :0.007824   Mean   :0.005592   Mean   :0.001623   Mean   :0.001623  
 3rd Qu.:0.000000   3rd Qu.:0.000000   3rd Qu.:0.000000   3rd Qu.:0.000000  
 Max.   :0.125000   Max.   :0.111111   Max.   :0.090909   Max.   :0.090909  
     wcar1       wcar2            wcar3            wcar4       
 Min.   :1   Min.   :0.0000   Min.   :0.0000   Min.   :0.0000  
 1st Qu.:1   1st Qu.:1.0000   1st Qu.:1.0000   1st Qu.:1.0000  
 Median :1   Median :1.0000   Median :1.0000   Median :1.0000  
 Mean   :1   Mean   :0.9821   Mean   :0.9107   Mean   :0.7679  
 3rd Qu.:1   3rd Qu.:1.0000   3rd Qu.:1.0000   3rd Qu.:1.0000  
 Max.   :1   Max.   :1.0000   Max.   :1.0000   Max.   :1.0000  
     wcar5            wcar6            wcar7            wcar8        
 Min.   :0.0000   Min.   :0.0000   Min.   :0.0000   Min.   :0.00000  
 1st Qu.:0.0000   1st Qu.:0.0000   1st Qu.:0.0000   1st Qu.:0.00000  
 Median :0.0000   Median :0.0000   Median :0.0000   Median :0.00000  
 Mean   :0.4821   Mean   :0.3036   Mean   :0.1071   Mean   :0.07143  
 3rd Qu.:1.0000   3rd Qu.:1.0000   3rd Qu.:0.0000   3rd Qu.:0.00000  
 Max.   :1.0000   Max.   :1.0000   Max.   :1.0000   Max.   :1.00000  
     wcar9             wcar10            wcar11       
 Min.   :0.00000   Min.   :0.00000   Min.   :0.00000  
 1st Qu.:0.00000   1st Qu.:0.00000   1st Qu.:0.00000  
 Median :0.00000   Median :0.00000   Median :0.00000  
 Mean   :0.05357   Mean   :0.01786   Mean   :0.01786  
 3rd Qu.:0.00000   3rd Qu.:0.00000   3rd Qu.:0.00000  
 Max.   :1.00000   Max.   :1.00000   Max.   :1.00000  
> 
> # 17.2 Fixed effects models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .248
> 
> lips1 <- lips1[with(lips1, order(neigh1, area, area)), ]
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(log(obs) ~ 1 + offset(offs), D = "Poisson", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, notation = "class"),
+   data = lips1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 3
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 591.243224
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 590.495633
Adapting finished and took 300 iterations
Adapting took 300 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 590.326698
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 588.866406
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 588.854361
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 588.865090
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 589.986613
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 590.953607
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 588.789292
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 590.658463
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 592.501910
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 588.731838

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 3
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.810076
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.899537
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.533701
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.770715
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.804601
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.910236
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.722999
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 592.705065
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.882718
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.678676
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.752890
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 591.684714
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 590.175661
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 591.363736
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.726650
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 591.762874
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 592.400424
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.708306
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.794691
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 591.434143
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 593.545958
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.937539
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.557996
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.274860
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.418327
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.235052
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.816834
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.972788
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.265666
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 590.228466
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.973838
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.012001
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 591.894094
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.804860
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.703247
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 590.900261
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.577142
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.788273
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.015206
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.703489
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.724317
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.120402
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 590.748873
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.253349
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.483294
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.254991
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.277795
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 590.456853
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.889482
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.419824
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.703133
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.718155
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 591.491550
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.877507
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 591.621909
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.989841
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.346102
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 592.026277
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.306953
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.767397
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.215226
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 590.391479
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 590.607373
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.731683
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.895931
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 591.063734
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 590.621673
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.385552
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.753713
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.863736
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.138690
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.161921
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.748823
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.097561
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.050663
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 593.307542
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.476155
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.758379
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.791813
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.898455
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.725365
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.704853
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.699171
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.708453
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 596.114515
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.615088
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.722939
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.694751
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.800362
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 590.846338
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 592.152018
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.249979
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.369413
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.556307
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 591.105364
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 590.410449
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 591.491914
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 596.616467
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 588.754424
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 589.735048
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          589.72
S.D.    =          1.4969
S.E.M.  =        0.021170

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.15)  multilevel model (Poisson) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 0.55s 
Number of obs:  56 (from total 56)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
589.721    588.708    1.013      590.735    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
log(obs) ~ 1 + offset(offs)
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
Intercept   -0.00328     0.04356  -0.08       0.94         -0.08804     0.08265   1112 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(log(obs) ~ 1 + perc_aff + offset(offs), D = "Poisson", estoptions = list(EstM = 1, notation = "class"),
+   data = lips1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 3
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 447.638673
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 448.171642
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 449.069921
Adapting finished and took 400 iterations
Adapting took 400 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 448.968036
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 446.625918
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 447.912104
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 447.798668
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 447.397319
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 446.749552
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 448.888948
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 450.330555
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 450.315768
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 447.427388

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 5000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 3
Actual update 50 of 5000, Stored update 50 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.162712
Actual update 100 of 5000, Stored update 100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.471916
Actual update 150 of 5000, Stored update 150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.055530
Actual update 200 of 5000, Stored update 200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.231697
Actual update 250 of 5000, Stored update 250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.755764
Actual update 300 of 5000, Stored update 300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.532864
Actual update 350 of 5000, Stored update 350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.271158
Actual update 400 of 5000, Stored update 400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 450.435790
Actual update 450 of 5000, Stored update 450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 450.745963
Actual update 500 of 5000, Stored update 500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.606652
Actual update 550 of 5000, Stored update 550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.290596
Actual update 600 of 5000, Stored update 600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.082325
Actual update 650 of 5000, Stored update 650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.657478
Actual update 700 of 5000, Stored update 700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.361003
Actual update 750 of 5000, Stored update 750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.780595
Actual update 800 of 5000, Stored update 800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 454.432528
Actual update 850 of 5000, Stored update 850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 450.681972
Actual update 900 of 5000, Stored update 900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 450.045450
Actual update 950 of 5000, Stored update 950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.829475
Actual update 1000 of 5000, Stored update 1000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.965691
Actual update 1050 of 5000, Stored update 1050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 449.409938
Actual update 1100 of 5000, Stored update 1100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 450.474783
Actual update 1150 of 5000, Stored update 1150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 449.829813
Actual update 1200 of 5000, Stored update 1200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.340009
Actual update 1250 of 5000, Stored update 1250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.184316
Actual update 1300 of 5000, Stored update 1300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.457034
Actual update 1350 of 5000, Stored update 1350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.955460
Actual update 1400 of 5000, Stored update 1400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 450.368284
Actual update 1450 of 5000, Stored update 1450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.777870
Actual update 1500 of 5000, Stored update 1500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.659639
Actual update 1550 of 5000, Stored update 1550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.822426
Actual update 1600 of 5000, Stored update 1600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 455.115479
Actual update 1650 of 5000, Stored update 1650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.249969
Actual update 1700 of 5000, Stored update 1700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.292921
Actual update 1750 of 5000, Stored update 1750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.107899
Actual update 1800 of 5000, Stored update 1800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.744155
Actual update 1850 of 5000, Stored update 1850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 450.449555
Actual update 1900 of 5000, Stored update 1900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.021861
Actual update 1950 of 5000, Stored update 1950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.900939
Actual update 2000 of 5000, Stored update 2000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.388955
Actual update 2050 of 5000, Stored update 2050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.387659
Actual update 2100 of 5000, Stored update 2100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 449.288778
Actual update 2150 of 5000, Stored update 2150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.886050
Actual update 2200 of 5000, Stored update 2200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 449.013641
Actual update 2250 of 5000, Stored update 2250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 450.179100
Actual update 2300 of 5000, Stored update 2300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 450.146916
Actual update 2350 of 5000, Stored update 2350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 449.763609
Actual update 2400 of 5000, Stored update 2400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.448482
Actual update 2450 of 5000, Stored update 2450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.812026
Actual update 2500 of 5000, Stored update 2500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 451.713502
Actual update 2550 of 5000, Stored update 2550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.975163
Actual update 2600 of 5000, Stored update 2600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.684397
Actual update 2650 of 5000, Stored update 2650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 453.117274
Actual update 2700 of 5000, Stored update 2700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.345953
Actual update 2750 of 5000, Stored update 2750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 452.518922
Actual update 2800 of 5000, Stored update 2800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.783525
Actual update 2850 of 5000, Stored update 2850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.475758
Actual update 2900 of 5000, Stored update 2900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.316125
Actual update 2950 of 5000, Stored update 2950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 450.402538
Actual update 3000 of 5000, Stored update 3000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.069500
Actual update 3050 of 5000, Stored update 3050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 449.211603
Actual update 3100 of 5000, Stored update 3100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 451.535126
Actual update 3150 of 5000, Stored update 3150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.085509
Actual update 3200 of 5000, Stored update 3200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.237985
Actual update 3250 of 5000, Stored update 3250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.175791
Actual update 3300 of 5000, Stored update 3300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.268926
Actual update 3350 of 5000, Stored update 3350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.097312
Actual update 3400 of 5000, Stored update 3400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.850172
Actual update 3450 of 5000, Stored update 3450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.922853
Actual update 3500 of 5000, Stored update 3500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.376830
Actual update 3550 of 5000, Stored update 3550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.518744
Actual update 3600 of 5000, Stored update 3600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 451.330311
Actual update 3650 of 5000, Stored update 3650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.525094
Actual update 3700 of 5000, Stored update 3700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.763251
Actual update 3750 of 5000, Stored update 3750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.890973
Actual update 3800 of 5000, Stored update 3800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 449.120309
Actual update 3850 of 5000, Stored update 3850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.375168
Actual update 3900 of 5000, Stored update 3900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.367930
Actual update 3950 of 5000, Stored update 3950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.818541
Actual update 4000 of 5000, Stored update 4000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.478835
Actual update 4050 of 5000, Stored update 4050 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 452.306462
Actual update 4100 of 5000, Stored update 4100 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.761594
Actual update 4150 of 5000, Stored update 4150 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.583079
Actual update 4200 of 5000, Stored update 4200 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 452.998960
Actual update 4250 of 5000, Stored update 4250 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.648553
Actual update 4300 of 5000, Stored update 4300 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.456080
Actual update 4350 of 5000, Stored update 4350 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.129268
Actual update 4400 of 5000, Stored update 4400 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.565650
Actual update 4450 of 5000, Stored update 4450 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.257556
Actual update 4500 of 5000, Stored update 4500 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.620734
Actual update 4550 of 5000, Stored update 4550 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.852021
Actual update 4600 of 5000, Stored update 4600 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 449.956216
Actual update 4650 of 5000, Stored update 4650 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.642363
Actual update 4700 of 5000, Stored update 4700 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 446.949497
Actual update 4750 of 5000, Stored update 4750 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 452.830012
Actual update 4800 of 5000, Stored update 4800 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.910801
Actual update 4850 of 5000, Stored update 4850 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.729099
Actual update 4900 of 5000, Stored update 4900 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.788316
Actual update 4950 of 5000, Stored update 4950 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 447.982627
Actual update 5000 of 5000, Stored update 5000 of 5000
-2 * Loglike = 448.074447
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =           5000
Average =          448.52
S.D.    =          1.8395
S.E.M.  =        0.026015

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.15)  multilevel model (Poisson) 
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 0.32s 
Number of obs:  56 (from total 56)          Number of iter.: 5000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
448.521    446.603    1.918      450.438    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
log(obs) ~ 1 + perc_aff + offset(offs)
Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.54639     0.06687  -8.17   3.068e-16  ***    -0.67559    -0.41319   308 
perc_aff     0.07382     0.00574  12.87   6.865e-38  ***     0.06256     0.08467   322 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000       1e-05      1.00000     1.00000   5000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 17.3 Random effects models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(log(obs) ~ 1 + perc_aff + offset(offs) + (0 | neigh1) + (1 | area), D = "Poisson", estoptions = list(EstM = 1,
+   notation = "class", mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000)), data = lips1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10 G30[1] G30[2]  2 2 2 1 1 3
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 262.043212
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 269.185911
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 269.519991
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 266.426561
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 266.426661
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 264.078481
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 264.083324
Adapting finished and took 800 iterations
Adapting took 800 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 254.360088
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 275.073752
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 264.655309
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 281.407804
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 274.002621
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 260.401063
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 262.180730
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 258.861824
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 270.092036
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 256.869729

ERAS G30
LINK 0 G30
ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 50000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 3
Actual update 50 of 50000, Stored update 50 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 302.034949
Actual update 100 of 50000, Stored update 100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.463949
Actual update 150 of 50000, Stored update 150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.576621
Actual update 200 of 50000, Stored update 200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.899485
Actual update 250 of 50000, Stored update 250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.409153
Actual update 300 of 50000, Stored update 300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.364787
Actual update 350 of 50000, Stored update 350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.224674
Actual update 400 of 50000, Stored update 400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.745030
Actual update 450 of 50000, Stored update 450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.344820
Actual update 500 of 50000, Stored update 500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.813354
Actual update 550 of 50000, Stored update 550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.855306
Actual update 600 of 50000, Stored update 600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.262949
Actual update 650 of 50000, Stored update 650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.548696
Actual update 700 of 50000, Stored update 700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.825054
Actual update 750 of 50000, Stored update 750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 305.937229
Actual update 800 of 50000, Stored update 800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.424083
Actual update 850 of 50000, Stored update 850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.918998
Actual update 900 of 50000, Stored update 900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.344257
Actual update 950 of 50000, Stored update 950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.949161
Actual update 1000 of 50000, Stored update 1000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.291038
Actual update 1050 of 50000, Stored update 1050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.277407
Actual update 1100 of 50000, Stored update 1100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.118852
Actual update 1150 of 50000, Stored update 1150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.004755
Actual update 1200 of 50000, Stored update 1200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.735086
Actual update 1250 of 50000, Stored update 1250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.837811
Actual update 1300 of 50000, Stored update 1300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.016985
Actual update 1350 of 50000, Stored update 1350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.796192
Actual update 1400 of 50000, Stored update 1400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.077513
Actual update 1450 of 50000, Stored update 1450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.664472
Actual update 1500 of 50000, Stored update 1500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.851557
Actual update 1550 of 50000, Stored update 1550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.032088
Actual update 1600 of 50000, Stored update 1600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.334151
Actual update 1650 of 50000, Stored update 1650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.507896
Actual update 1700 of 50000, Stored update 1700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.477995
Actual update 1750 of 50000, Stored update 1750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.563196
Actual update 1800 of 50000, Stored update 1800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.285098
Actual update 1850 of 50000, Stored update 1850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.519328
Actual update 1900 of 50000, Stored update 1900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 296.703877
Actual update 1950 of 50000, Stored update 1950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.064766
Actual update 2000 of 50000, Stored update 2000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.476300
Actual update 2050 of 50000, Stored update 2050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.585279
Actual update 2100 of 50000, Stored update 2100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.971906
Actual update 2150 of 50000, Stored update 2150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.410749
Actual update 2200 of 50000, Stored update 2200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.595231
Actual update 2250 of 50000, Stored update 2250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.471009
Actual update 2300 of 50000, Stored update 2300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.539668
Actual update 2350 of 50000, Stored update 2350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.579266
Actual update 2400 of 50000, Stored update 2400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.720122
Actual update 2450 of 50000, Stored update 2450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.805709
Actual update 2500 of 50000, Stored update 2500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.789859
Actual update 2550 of 50000, Stored update 2550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.447981
Actual update 2600 of 50000, Stored update 2600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.450812
Actual update 2650 of 50000, Stored update 2650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.099434
Actual update 2700 of 50000, Stored update 2700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.511249
Actual update 2750 of 50000, Stored update 2750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.407675
Actual update 2800 of 50000, Stored update 2800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.650754
Actual update 2850 of 50000, Stored update 2850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.306256
Actual update 2900 of 50000, Stored update 2900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.578726
Actual update 2950 of 50000, Stored update 2950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.430007
Actual update 3000 of 50000, Stored update 3000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.699292
Actual update 3050 of 50000, Stored update 3050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.848291
Actual update 3100 of 50000, Stored update 3100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.461595
Actual update 3150 of 50000, Stored update 3150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.313181
Actual update 3200 of 50000, Stored update 3200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.627372
Actual update 3250 of 50000, Stored update 3250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.301420
Actual update 3300 of 50000, Stored update 3300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.041953
Actual update 3350 of 50000, Stored update 3350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.488332
Actual update 3400 of 50000, Stored update 3400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.520050
Actual update 3450 of 50000, Stored update 3450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.982146
Actual update 3500 of 50000, Stored update 3500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.132739
Actual update 3550 of 50000, Stored update 3550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.450088
Actual update 3600 of 50000, Stored update 3600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.644595
Actual update 3650 of 50000, Stored update 3650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.616360
Actual update 3700 of 50000, Stored update 3700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.607114
Actual update 3750 of 50000, Stored update 3750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.981177
Actual update 3800 of 50000, Stored update 3800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.817662
Actual update 3850 of 50000, Stored update 3850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.478473
Actual update 3900 of 50000, Stored update 3900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.717706
Actual update 3950 of 50000, Stored update 3950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.341131
Actual update 4000 of 50000, Stored update 4000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.531664
Actual update 4050 of 50000, Stored update 4050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.285381
Actual update 4100 of 50000, Stored update 4100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.295981
Actual update 4150 of 50000, Stored update 4150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.932470
Actual update 4200 of 50000, Stored update 4200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.969102
Actual update 4250 of 50000, Stored update 4250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.906784
Actual update 4300 of 50000, Stored update 4300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.970825
Actual update 4350 of 50000, Stored update 4350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.637470
Actual update 4400 of 50000, Stored update 4400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.793555
Actual update 4450 of 50000, Stored update 4450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.882542
Actual update 4500 of 50000, Stored update 4500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.011458
Actual update 4550 of 50000, Stored update 4550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.197006
Actual update 4600 of 50000, Stored update 4600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.444494
Actual update 4650 of 50000, Stored update 4650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 248.126554
Actual update 4700 of 50000, Stored update 4700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.860529
Actual update 4750 of 50000, Stored update 4750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.108846
Actual update 4800 of 50000, Stored update 4800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.184580
Actual update 4850 of 50000, Stored update 4850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.572358
Actual update 4900 of 50000, Stored update 4900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.379997
Actual update 4950 of 50000, Stored update 4950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.344164
Actual update 5000 of 50000, Stored update 5000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.880906
Actual update 5050 of 50000, Stored update 5050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.308745
Actual update 5100 of 50000, Stored update 5100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.928780
Actual update 5150 of 50000, Stored update 5150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 248.788064
Actual update 5200 of 50000, Stored update 5200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.148714
Actual update 5250 of 50000, Stored update 5250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.860773
Actual update 5300 of 50000, Stored update 5300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.234385
Actual update 5350 of 50000, Stored update 5350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.092312
Actual update 5400 of 50000, Stored update 5400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.932753
Actual update 5450 of 50000, Stored update 5450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.538328
Actual update 5500 of 50000, Stored update 5500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.899521
Actual update 5550 of 50000, Stored update 5550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.636136
Actual update 5600 of 50000, Stored update 5600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.602706
Actual update 5650 of 50000, Stored update 5650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.947067
Actual update 5700 of 50000, Stored update 5700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.088141
Actual update 5750 of 50000, Stored update 5750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.236757
Actual update 5800 of 50000, Stored update 5800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.976450
Actual update 5850 of 50000, Stored update 5850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.676281
Actual update 5900 of 50000, Stored update 5900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.376082
Actual update 5950 of 50000, Stored update 5950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.935539
Actual update 6000 of 50000, Stored update 6000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.399993
Actual update 6050 of 50000, Stored update 6050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.678743
Actual update 6100 of 50000, Stored update 6100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.380556
Actual update 6150 of 50000, Stored update 6150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.584346
Actual update 6200 of 50000, Stored update 6200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.942359
Actual update 6250 of 50000, Stored update 6250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.282460
Actual update 6300 of 50000, Stored update 6300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.182663
Actual update 6350 of 50000, Stored update 6350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.302269
Actual update 6400 of 50000, Stored update 6400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.227209
Actual update 6450 of 50000, Stored update 6450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.669367
Actual update 6500 of 50000, Stored update 6500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.558798
Actual update 6550 of 50000, Stored update 6550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.932015
Actual update 6600 of 50000, Stored update 6600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.360581
Actual update 6650 of 50000, Stored update 6650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.635364
Actual update 6700 of 50000, Stored update 6700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.822005
Actual update 6750 of 50000, Stored update 6750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.041757
Actual update 6800 of 50000, Stored update 6800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.083824
Actual update 6850 of 50000, Stored update 6850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.458446
Actual update 6900 of 50000, Stored update 6900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.566304
Actual update 6950 of 50000, Stored update 6950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.547669
Actual update 7000 of 50000, Stored update 7000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.252970
Actual update 7050 of 50000, Stored update 7050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.569403
Actual update 7100 of 50000, Stored update 7100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.480091
Actual update 7150 of 50000, Stored update 7150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.794667
Actual update 7200 of 50000, Stored update 7200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.287482
Actual update 7250 of 50000, Stored update 7250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.541910
Actual update 7300 of 50000, Stored update 7300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.525309
Actual update 7350 of 50000, Stored update 7350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.075455
Actual update 7400 of 50000, Stored update 7400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.046880
Actual update 7450 of 50000, Stored update 7450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.774771
Actual update 7500 of 50000, Stored update 7500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.666906
Actual update 7550 of 50000, Stored update 7550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.190788
Actual update 7600 of 50000, Stored update 7600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.840945
Actual update 7650 of 50000, Stored update 7650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.356183
Actual update 7700 of 50000, Stored update 7700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.971703
Actual update 7750 of 50000, Stored update 7750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.172684
Actual update 7800 of 50000, Stored update 7800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.372333
Actual update 7850 of 50000, Stored update 7850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.821784
Actual update 7900 of 50000, Stored update 7900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.217158
Actual update 7950 of 50000, Stored update 7950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 246.431654
Actual update 8000 of 50000, Stored update 8000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.725617
Actual update 8050 of 50000, Stored update 8050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.125163
Actual update 8100 of 50000, Stored update 8100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.487469
Actual update 8150 of 50000, Stored update 8150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.023445
Actual update 8200 of 50000, Stored update 8200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.590549
Actual update 8250 of 50000, Stored update 8250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.880874
Actual update 8300 of 50000, Stored update 8300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.529209
Actual update 8350 of 50000, Stored update 8350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.463632
Actual update 8400 of 50000, Stored update 8400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.147185
Actual update 8450 of 50000, Stored update 8450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.101151
Actual update 8500 of 50000, Stored update 8500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.076257
Actual update 8550 of 50000, Stored update 8550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.662626
Actual update 8600 of 50000, Stored update 8600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.106741
Actual update 8650 of 50000, Stored update 8650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.170270
Actual update 8700 of 50000, Stored update 8700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.885255
Actual update 8750 of 50000, Stored update 8750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.618304
Actual update 8800 of 50000, Stored update 8800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.769199
Actual update 8850 of 50000, Stored update 8850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.794627
Actual update 8900 of 50000, Stored update 8900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.471933
Actual update 8950 of 50000, Stored update 8950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.034496
Actual update 9000 of 50000, Stored update 9000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.013521
Actual update 9050 of 50000, Stored update 9050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.937667
Actual update 9100 of 50000, Stored update 9100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.115489
Actual update 9150 of 50000, Stored update 9150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.178281
Actual update 9200 of 50000, Stored update 9200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.785610
Actual update 9250 of 50000, Stored update 9250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.481946
Actual update 9300 of 50000, Stored update 9300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.570613
Actual update 9350 of 50000, Stored update 9350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.277636
Actual update 9400 of 50000, Stored update 9400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.335840
Actual update 9450 of 50000, Stored update 9450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.651389
Actual update 9500 of 50000, Stored update 9500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.536687
Actual update 9550 of 50000, Stored update 9550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.546061
Actual update 9600 of 50000, Stored update 9600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.915421
Actual update 9650 of 50000, Stored update 9650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.232064
Actual update 9700 of 50000, Stored update 9700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.062113
Actual update 9750 of 50000, Stored update 9750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.578282
Actual update 9800 of 50000, Stored update 9800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.927808
Actual update 9850 of 50000, Stored update 9850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.626446
Actual update 9900 of 50000, Stored update 9900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.050784
Actual update 9950 of 50000, Stored update 9950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.425279
Actual update 10000 of 50000, Stored update 10000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.935502
Actual update 10050 of 50000, Stored update 10050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.693721
Actual update 10100 of 50000, Stored update 10100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.931873
Actual update 10150 of 50000, Stored update 10150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.634237
Actual update 10200 of 50000, Stored update 10200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.639846
Actual update 10250 of 50000, Stored update 10250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.332073
Actual update 10300 of 50000, Stored update 10300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.495628
Actual update 10350 of 50000, Stored update 10350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.058896
Actual update 10400 of 50000, Stored update 10400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.101445
Actual update 10450 of 50000, Stored update 10450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.125498
Actual update 10500 of 50000, Stored update 10500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.152831
Actual update 10550 of 50000, Stored update 10550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.083909
Actual update 10600 of 50000, Stored update 10600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.836777
Actual update 10650 of 50000, Stored update 10650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.970726
Actual update 10700 of 50000, Stored update 10700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.310804
Actual update 10750 of 50000, Stored update 10750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.433843
Actual update 10800 of 50000, Stored update 10800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.151108
Actual update 10850 of 50000, Stored update 10850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.368546
Actual update 10900 of 50000, Stored update 10900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.496178
Actual update 10950 of 50000, Stored update 10950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.561278
Actual update 11000 of 50000, Stored update 11000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.059777
Actual update 11050 of 50000, Stored update 11050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.008141
Actual update 11100 of 50000, Stored update 11100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.787336
Actual update 11150 of 50000, Stored update 11150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.868164
Actual update 11200 of 50000, Stored update 11200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.084069
Actual update 11250 of 50000, Stored update 11250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.641105
Actual update 11300 of 50000, Stored update 11300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.417010
Actual update 11350 of 50000, Stored update 11350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.361303
Actual update 11400 of 50000, Stored update 11400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.627382
Actual update 11450 of 50000, Stored update 11450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.912514
Actual update 11500 of 50000, Stored update 11500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.065477
Actual update 11550 of 50000, Stored update 11550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.474623
Actual update 11600 of 50000, Stored update 11600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.576014
Actual update 11650 of 50000, Stored update 11650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.507998
Actual update 11700 of 50000, Stored update 11700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.678751
Actual update 11750 of 50000, Stored update 11750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.347954
Actual update 11800 of 50000, Stored update 11800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.229994
Actual update 11850 of 50000, Stored update 11850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.307932
Actual update 11900 of 50000, Stored update 11900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.407360
Actual update 11950 of 50000, Stored update 11950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.613939
Actual update 12000 of 50000, Stored update 12000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.699364
Actual update 12050 of 50000, Stored update 12050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.603073
Actual update 12100 of 50000, Stored update 12100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.626130
Actual update 12150 of 50000, Stored update 12150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.700338
Actual update 12200 of 50000, Stored update 12200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.091921
Actual update 12250 of 50000, Stored update 12250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.243216
Actual update 12300 of 50000, Stored update 12300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.655945
Actual update 12350 of 50000, Stored update 12350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.190146
Actual update 12400 of 50000, Stored update 12400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.539668
Actual update 12450 of 50000, Stored update 12450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.678281
Actual update 12500 of 50000, Stored update 12500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.347751
Actual update 12550 of 50000, Stored update 12550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.464800
Actual update 12600 of 50000, Stored update 12600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.425180
Actual update 12650 of 50000, Stored update 12650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.851861
Actual update 12700 of 50000, Stored update 12700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.557085
Actual update 12750 of 50000, Stored update 12750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.117193
Actual update 12800 of 50000, Stored update 12800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.799117
Actual update 12850 of 50000, Stored update 12850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.557209
Actual update 12900 of 50000, Stored update 12900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.800664
Actual update 12950 of 50000, Stored update 12950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.688291
Actual update 13000 of 50000, Stored update 13000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.943366
Actual update 13050 of 50000, Stored update 13050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.607466
Actual update 13100 of 50000, Stored update 13100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.065593
Actual update 13150 of 50000, Stored update 13150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 244.436384
Actual update 13200 of 50000, Stored update 13200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.817417
Actual update 13250 of 50000, Stored update 13250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.361178
Actual update 13300 of 50000, Stored update 13300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.123010
Actual update 13350 of 50000, Stored update 13350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.305463
Actual update 13400 of 50000, Stored update 13400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.910122
Actual update 13450 of 50000, Stored update 13450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.239886
Actual update 13500 of 50000, Stored update 13500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.975907
Actual update 13550 of 50000, Stored update 13550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.530681
Actual update 13600 of 50000, Stored update 13600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.846184
Actual update 13650 of 50000, Stored update 13650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.785079
Actual update 13700 of 50000, Stored update 13700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.929763
Actual update 13750 of 50000, Stored update 13750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.681045
Actual update 13800 of 50000, Stored update 13800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.862381
Actual update 13850 of 50000, Stored update 13850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.350084
Actual update 13900 of 50000, Stored update 13900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.079440
Actual update 13950 of 50000, Stored update 13950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.272056
Actual update 14000 of 50000, Stored update 14000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.446918
Actual update 14050 of 50000, Stored update 14050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.387997
Actual update 14100 of 50000, Stored update 14100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.342388
Actual update 14150 of 50000, Stored update 14150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.280879
Actual update 14200 of 50000, Stored update 14200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.876562
Actual update 14250 of 50000, Stored update 14250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.042429
Actual update 14300 of 50000, Stored update 14300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.422216
Actual update 14350 of 50000, Stored update 14350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.573610
Actual update 14400 of 50000, Stored update 14400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.575604
Actual update 14450 of 50000, Stored update 14450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 297.181193
Actual update 14500 of 50000, Stored update 14500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.948128
Actual update 14550 of 50000, Stored update 14550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.398739
Actual update 14600 of 50000, Stored update 14600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.689831
Actual update 14650 of 50000, Stored update 14650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.960364
Actual update 14700 of 50000, Stored update 14700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.392859
Actual update 14750 of 50000, Stored update 14750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.598501
Actual update 14800 of 50000, Stored update 14800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.318547
Actual update 14850 of 50000, Stored update 14850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.640350
Actual update 14900 of 50000, Stored update 14900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.119278
Actual update 14950 of 50000, Stored update 14950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.194425
Actual update 15000 of 50000, Stored update 15000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.663812
Actual update 15050 of 50000, Stored update 15050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.676138
Actual update 15100 of 50000, Stored update 15100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.654692
Actual update 15150 of 50000, Stored update 15150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.201396
Actual update 15200 of 50000, Stored update 15200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.246047
Actual update 15250 of 50000, Stored update 15250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.505308
Actual update 15300 of 50000, Stored update 15300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.614053
Actual update 15350 of 50000, Stored update 15350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.724350
Actual update 15400 of 50000, Stored update 15400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.772439
Actual update 15450 of 50000, Stored update 15450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.305762
Actual update 15500 of 50000, Stored update 15500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.591471
Actual update 15550 of 50000, Stored update 15550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.076380
Actual update 15600 of 50000, Stored update 15600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.680757
Actual update 15650 of 50000, Stored update 15650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.247620
Actual update 15700 of 50000, Stored update 15700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 294.773751
Actual update 15750 of 50000, Stored update 15750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.439795
Actual update 15800 of 50000, Stored update 15800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.701347
Actual update 15850 of 50000, Stored update 15850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.861200
Actual update 15900 of 50000, Stored update 15900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.401175
Actual update 15950 of 50000, Stored update 15950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.295724
Actual update 16000 of 50000, Stored update 16000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.974913
Actual update 16050 of 50000, Stored update 16050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.552602
Actual update 16100 of 50000, Stored update 16100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.191065
Actual update 16150 of 50000, Stored update 16150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.767180
Actual update 16200 of 50000, Stored update 16200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.969790
Actual update 16250 of 50000, Stored update 16250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.044690
Actual update 16300 of 50000, Stored update 16300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.505500
Actual update 16350 of 50000, Stored update 16350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.901104
Actual update 16400 of 50000, Stored update 16400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.323653
Actual update 16450 of 50000, Stored update 16450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.236265
Actual update 16500 of 50000, Stored update 16500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.566727
Actual update 16550 of 50000, Stored update 16550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.982962
Actual update 16600 of 50000, Stored update 16600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.486015
Actual update 16650 of 50000, Stored update 16650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.722821
Actual update 16700 of 50000, Stored update 16700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.218945
Actual update 16750 of 50000, Stored update 16750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.586106
Actual update 16800 of 50000, Stored update 16800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.316818
Actual update 16850 of 50000, Stored update 16850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.808050
Actual update 16900 of 50000, Stored update 16900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.739243
Actual update 16950 of 50000, Stored update 16950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.798122
Actual update 17000 of 50000, Stored update 17000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.151711
Actual update 17050 of 50000, Stored update 17050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 294.575540
Actual update 17100 of 50000, Stored update 17100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.018126
Actual update 17150 of 50000, Stored update 17150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 246.724037
Actual update 17200 of 50000, Stored update 17200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.413408
Actual update 17250 of 50000, Stored update 17250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.595277
Actual update 17300 of 50000, Stored update 17300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.192529
Actual update 17350 of 50000, Stored update 17350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.857049
Actual update 17400 of 50000, Stored update 17400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.602649
Actual update 17450 of 50000, Stored update 17450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.863197
Actual update 17500 of 50000, Stored update 17500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.155819
Actual update 17550 of 50000, Stored update 17550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.795981
Actual update 17600 of 50000, Stored update 17600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.418632
Actual update 17650 of 50000, Stored update 17650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.518549
Actual update 17700 of 50000, Stored update 17700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.951714
Actual update 17750 of 50000, Stored update 17750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.006620
Actual update 17800 of 50000, Stored update 17800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.320181
Actual update 17850 of 50000, Stored update 17850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.620679
Actual update 17900 of 50000, Stored update 17900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.730815
Actual update 17950 of 50000, Stored update 17950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.835096
Actual update 18000 of 50000, Stored update 18000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 294.144043
Actual update 18050 of 50000, Stored update 18050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.952324
Actual update 18100 of 50000, Stored update 18100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.298423
Actual update 18150 of 50000, Stored update 18150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.846579
Actual update 18200 of 50000, Stored update 18200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.893549
Actual update 18250 of 50000, Stored update 18250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.441840
Actual update 18300 of 50000, Stored update 18300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.828560
Actual update 18350 of 50000, Stored update 18350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 302.286983
Actual update 18400 of 50000, Stored update 18400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.239036
Actual update 18450 of 50000, Stored update 18450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.537913
Actual update 18500 of 50000, Stored update 18500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.023184
Actual update 18550 of 50000, Stored update 18550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.451844
Actual update 18600 of 50000, Stored update 18600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.855479
Actual update 18650 of 50000, Stored update 18650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.856592
Actual update 18700 of 50000, Stored update 18700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.152499
Actual update 18750 of 50000, Stored update 18750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.169498
Actual update 18800 of 50000, Stored update 18800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.526528
Actual update 18850 of 50000, Stored update 18850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.652314
Actual update 18900 of 50000, Stored update 18900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.848429
Actual update 18950 of 50000, Stored update 18950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.497375
Actual update 19000 of 50000, Stored update 19000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.543025
Actual update 19050 of 50000, Stored update 19050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.461499
Actual update 19100 of 50000, Stored update 19100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.370852
Actual update 19150 of 50000, Stored update 19150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.192266
Actual update 19200 of 50000, Stored update 19200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.108893
Actual update 19250 of 50000, Stored update 19250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.672398
Actual update 19300 of 50000, Stored update 19300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.634276
Actual update 19350 of 50000, Stored update 19350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.523547
Actual update 19400 of 50000, Stored update 19400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.516695
Actual update 19450 of 50000, Stored update 19450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.866256
Actual update 19500 of 50000, Stored update 19500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.692546
Actual update 19550 of 50000, Stored update 19550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.757354
Actual update 19600 of 50000, Stored update 19600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.429402
Actual update 19650 of 50000, Stored update 19650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.185477
Actual update 19700 of 50000, Stored update 19700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 245.762089
Actual update 19750 of 50000, Stored update 19750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.602824
Actual update 19800 of 50000, Stored update 19800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.657403
Actual update 19850 of 50000, Stored update 19850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.567113
Actual update 19900 of 50000, Stored update 19900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.429104
Actual update 19950 of 50000, Stored update 19950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.471836
Actual update 20000 of 50000, Stored update 20000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.025905
Actual update 20050 of 50000, Stored update 20050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.349858
Actual update 20100 of 50000, Stored update 20100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.254594
Actual update 20150 of 50000, Stored update 20150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.739690
Actual update 20200 of 50000, Stored update 20200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.794540
Actual update 20250 of 50000, Stored update 20250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.106298
Actual update 20300 of 50000, Stored update 20300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.218953
Actual update 20350 of 50000, Stored update 20350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.060531
Actual update 20400 of 50000, Stored update 20400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.549554
Actual update 20450 of 50000, Stored update 20450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.392208
Actual update 20500 of 50000, Stored update 20500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.161505
Actual update 20550 of 50000, Stored update 20550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.872889
Actual update 20600 of 50000, Stored update 20600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.264106
Actual update 20650 of 50000, Stored update 20650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.316912
Actual update 20700 of 50000, Stored update 20700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.665400
Actual update 20750 of 50000, Stored update 20750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.918942
Actual update 20800 of 50000, Stored update 20800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 248.886320
Actual update 20850 of 50000, Stored update 20850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.147607
Actual update 20900 of 50000, Stored update 20900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.917583
Actual update 20950 of 50000, Stored update 20950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 294.546529
Actual update 21000 of 50000, Stored update 21000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.947228
Actual update 21050 of 50000, Stored update 21050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.503782
Actual update 21100 of 50000, Stored update 21100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.221689
Actual update 21150 of 50000, Stored update 21150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.421853
Actual update 21200 of 50000, Stored update 21200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.963932
Actual update 21250 of 50000, Stored update 21250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.608552
Actual update 21300 of 50000, Stored update 21300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.476897
Actual update 21350 of 50000, Stored update 21350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.445414
Actual update 21400 of 50000, Stored update 21400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.564215
Actual update 21450 of 50000, Stored update 21450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.983414
Actual update 21500 of 50000, Stored update 21500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.880296
Actual update 21550 of 50000, Stored update 21550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.868794
Actual update 21600 of 50000, Stored update 21600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.193834
Actual update 21650 of 50000, Stored update 21650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.680710
Actual update 21700 of 50000, Stored update 21700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.949242
Actual update 21750 of 50000, Stored update 21750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.810183
Actual update 21800 of 50000, Stored update 21800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.811280
Actual update 21850 of 50000, Stored update 21850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.014124
Actual update 21900 of 50000, Stored update 21900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.870127
Actual update 21950 of 50000, Stored update 21950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.224639
Actual update 22000 of 50000, Stored update 22000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.403637
Actual update 22050 of 50000, Stored update 22050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.020590
Actual update 22100 of 50000, Stored update 22100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.577135
Actual update 22150 of 50000, Stored update 22150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.817198
Actual update 22200 of 50000, Stored update 22200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.465416
Actual update 22250 of 50000, Stored update 22250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.425613
Actual update 22300 of 50000, Stored update 22300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 298.943593
Actual update 22350 of 50000, Stored update 22350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.568532
Actual update 22400 of 50000, Stored update 22400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.721119
Actual update 22450 of 50000, Stored update 22450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.828499
Actual update 22500 of 50000, Stored update 22500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.871154
Actual update 22550 of 50000, Stored update 22550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.428541
Actual update 22600 of 50000, Stored update 22600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.706823
Actual update 22650 of 50000, Stored update 22650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.020050
Actual update 22700 of 50000, Stored update 22700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.754173
Actual update 22750 of 50000, Stored update 22750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.695905
Actual update 22800 of 50000, Stored update 22800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.307668
Actual update 22850 of 50000, Stored update 22850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.093504
Actual update 22900 of 50000, Stored update 22900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.048348
Actual update 22950 of 50000, Stored update 22950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.343877
Actual update 23000 of 50000, Stored update 23000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.763484
Actual update 23050 of 50000, Stored update 23050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.096519
Actual update 23100 of 50000, Stored update 23100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.522847
Actual update 23150 of 50000, Stored update 23150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.417471
Actual update 23200 of 50000, Stored update 23200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.292771
Actual update 23250 of 50000, Stored update 23250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.249502
Actual update 23300 of 50000, Stored update 23300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.380339
Actual update 23350 of 50000, Stored update 23350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.140092
Actual update 23400 of 50000, Stored update 23400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.595681
Actual update 23450 of 50000, Stored update 23450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.590081
Actual update 23500 of 50000, Stored update 23500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.577809
Actual update 23550 of 50000, Stored update 23550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.121864
Actual update 23600 of 50000, Stored update 23600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.365592
Actual update 23650 of 50000, Stored update 23650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.311098
Actual update 23700 of 50000, Stored update 23700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.901707
Actual update 23750 of 50000, Stored update 23750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.893663
Actual update 23800 of 50000, Stored update 23800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.497420
Actual update 23850 of 50000, Stored update 23850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 247.213264
Actual update 23900 of 50000, Stored update 23900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.672992
Actual update 23950 of 50000, Stored update 23950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.094980
Actual update 24000 of 50000, Stored update 24000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.824111
Actual update 24050 of 50000, Stored update 24050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.082326
Actual update 24100 of 50000, Stored update 24100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.748179
Actual update 24150 of 50000, Stored update 24150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.634959
Actual update 24200 of 50000, Stored update 24200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.585335
Actual update 24250 of 50000, Stored update 24250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.111377
Actual update 24300 of 50000, Stored update 24300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 243.966419
Actual update 24350 of 50000, Stored update 24350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.577402
Actual update 24400 of 50000, Stored update 24400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.080378
Actual update 24450 of 50000, Stored update 24450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.592081
Actual update 24500 of 50000, Stored update 24500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.707040
Actual update 24550 of 50000, Stored update 24550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.909253
Actual update 24600 of 50000, Stored update 24600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.182221
Actual update 24650 of 50000, Stored update 24650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.110812
Actual update 24700 of 50000, Stored update 24700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.779768
Actual update 24750 of 50000, Stored update 24750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.638979
Actual update 24800 of 50000, Stored update 24800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.755351
Actual update 24850 of 50000, Stored update 24850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.745008
Actual update 24900 of 50000, Stored update 24900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 292.227790
Actual update 24950 of 50000, Stored update 24950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.647003
Actual update 25000 of 50000, Stored update 25000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.306279
Actual update 25050 of 50000, Stored update 25050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.101244
Actual update 25100 of 50000, Stored update 25100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.307992
Actual update 25150 of 50000, Stored update 25150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.906927
Actual update 25200 of 50000, Stored update 25200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.191254
Actual update 25250 of 50000, Stored update 25250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.971164
Actual update 25300 of 50000, Stored update 25300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.332556
Actual update 25350 of 50000, Stored update 25350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.106424
Actual update 25400 of 50000, Stored update 25400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 248.284732
Actual update 25450 of 50000, Stored update 25450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.052277
Actual update 25500 of 50000, Stored update 25500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.705970
Actual update 25550 of 50000, Stored update 25550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.076428
Actual update 25600 of 50000, Stored update 25600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.945913
Actual update 25650 of 50000, Stored update 25650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.592831
Actual update 25700 of 50000, Stored update 25700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.626923
Actual update 25750 of 50000, Stored update 25750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.364751
Actual update 25800 of 50000, Stored update 25800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.282709
Actual update 25850 of 50000, Stored update 25850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.053956
Actual update 25900 of 50000, Stored update 25900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.218157
Actual update 25950 of 50000, Stored update 25950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.486889
Actual update 26000 of 50000, Stored update 26000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.422116
Actual update 26050 of 50000, Stored update 26050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.153485
Actual update 26100 of 50000, Stored update 26100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.419961
Actual update 26150 of 50000, Stored update 26150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.685190
Actual update 26200 of 50000, Stored update 26200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.471285
Actual update 26250 of 50000, Stored update 26250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.623036
Actual update 26300 of 50000, Stored update 26300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.938529
Actual update 26350 of 50000, Stored update 26350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.895483
Actual update 26400 of 50000, Stored update 26400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.221028
Actual update 26450 of 50000, Stored update 26450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.325690
Actual update 26500 of 50000, Stored update 26500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.023302
Actual update 26550 of 50000, Stored update 26550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.910815
Actual update 26600 of 50000, Stored update 26600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.060524
Actual update 26650 of 50000, Stored update 26650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.463874
Actual update 26700 of 50000, Stored update 26700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.608179
Actual update 26750 of 50000, Stored update 26750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.338314
Actual update 26800 of 50000, Stored update 26800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.883650
Actual update 26850 of 50000, Stored update 26850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.246328
Actual update 26900 of 50000, Stored update 26900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.076972
Actual update 26950 of 50000, Stored update 26950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.520714
Actual update 27000 of 50000, Stored update 27000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.412972
Actual update 27050 of 50000, Stored update 27050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.454027
Actual update 27100 of 50000, Stored update 27100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.766938
Actual update 27150 of 50000, Stored update 27150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.458289
Actual update 27200 of 50000, Stored update 27200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.952811
Actual update 27250 of 50000, Stored update 27250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.828214
Actual update 27300 of 50000, Stored update 27300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.208152
Actual update 27350 of 50000, Stored update 27350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.420093
Actual update 27400 of 50000, Stored update 27400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.353115
Actual update 27450 of 50000, Stored update 27450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.652995
Actual update 27500 of 50000, Stored update 27500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.599829
Actual update 27550 of 50000, Stored update 27550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.395806
Actual update 27600 of 50000, Stored update 27600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.229953
Actual update 27650 of 50000, Stored update 27650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.466429
Actual update 27700 of 50000, Stored update 27700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.270609
Actual update 27750 of 50000, Stored update 27750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.648692
Actual update 27800 of 50000, Stored update 27800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.975162
Actual update 27850 of 50000, Stored update 27850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.401996
Actual update 27900 of 50000, Stored update 27900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.998991
Actual update 27950 of 50000, Stored update 27950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.913831
Actual update 28000 of 50000, Stored update 28000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.607963
Actual update 28050 of 50000, Stored update 28050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.939793
Actual update 28100 of 50000, Stored update 28100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.147193
Actual update 28150 of 50000, Stored update 28150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.712789
Actual update 28200 of 50000, Stored update 28200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.584511
Actual update 28250 of 50000, Stored update 28250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.742690
Actual update 28300 of 50000, Stored update 28300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.358498
Actual update 28350 of 50000, Stored update 28350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.428379
Actual update 28400 of 50000, Stored update 28400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.561408
Actual update 28450 of 50000, Stored update 28450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.027330
Actual update 28500 of 50000, Stored update 28500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.273935
Actual update 28550 of 50000, Stored update 28550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.862930
Actual update 28600 of 50000, Stored update 28600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.548854
Actual update 28650 of 50000, Stored update 28650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.560233
Actual update 28700 of 50000, Stored update 28700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.087717
Actual update 28750 of 50000, Stored update 28750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.855721
Actual update 28800 of 50000, Stored update 28800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.680809
Actual update 28850 of 50000, Stored update 28850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.343928
Actual update 28900 of 50000, Stored update 28900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.822504
Actual update 28950 of 50000, Stored update 28950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.083894
Actual update 29000 of 50000, Stored update 29000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.228353
Actual update 29050 of 50000, Stored update 29050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.614239
Actual update 29100 of 50000, Stored update 29100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.640049
Actual update 29150 of 50000, Stored update 29150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.192192
Actual update 29200 of 50000, Stored update 29200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.200406
Actual update 29250 of 50000, Stored update 29250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.881266
Actual update 29300 of 50000, Stored update 29300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.640315
Actual update 29350 of 50000, Stored update 29350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.378795
Actual update 29400 of 50000, Stored update 29400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.633425
Actual update 29450 of 50000, Stored update 29450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.132432
Actual update 29500 of 50000, Stored update 29500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.513691
Actual update 29550 of 50000, Stored update 29550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.304054
Actual update 29600 of 50000, Stored update 29600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.746751
Actual update 29650 of 50000, Stored update 29650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.725394
Actual update 29700 of 50000, Stored update 29700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.796864
Actual update 29750 of 50000, Stored update 29750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.069917
Actual update 29800 of 50000, Stored update 29800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.073910
Actual update 29850 of 50000, Stored update 29850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.100117
Actual update 29900 of 50000, Stored update 29900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.194994
Actual update 29950 of 50000, Stored update 29950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.022026
Actual update 30000 of 50000, Stored update 30000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.563208
Actual update 30050 of 50000, Stored update 30050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.067833
Actual update 30100 of 50000, Stored update 30100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.176399
Actual update 30150 of 50000, Stored update 30150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.320090
Actual update 30200 of 50000, Stored update 30200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.793830
Actual update 30250 of 50000, Stored update 30250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.954975
Actual update 30300 of 50000, Stored update 30300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.485441
Actual update 30350 of 50000, Stored update 30350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.971371
Actual update 30400 of 50000, Stored update 30400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.824394
Actual update 30450 of 50000, Stored update 30450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.150723
Actual update 30500 of 50000, Stored update 30500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.648017
Actual update 30550 of 50000, Stored update 30550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.315083
Actual update 30600 of 50000, Stored update 30600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.235041
Actual update 30650 of 50000, Stored update 30650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.561375
Actual update 30700 of 50000, Stored update 30700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.587237
Actual update 30750 of 50000, Stored update 30750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.601301
Actual update 30800 of 50000, Stored update 30800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.823416
Actual update 30850 of 50000, Stored update 30850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.318415
Actual update 30900 of 50000, Stored update 30900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.711913
Actual update 30950 of 50000, Stored update 30950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.997316
Actual update 31000 of 50000, Stored update 31000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.334491
Actual update 31050 of 50000, Stored update 31050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.589181
Actual update 31100 of 50000, Stored update 31100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.755455
Actual update 31150 of 50000, Stored update 31150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.425037
Actual update 31200 of 50000, Stored update 31200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.567003
Actual update 31250 of 50000, Stored update 31250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 294.400433
Actual update 31300 of 50000, Stored update 31300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.388646
Actual update 31350 of 50000, Stored update 31350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.461016
Actual update 31400 of 50000, Stored update 31400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.519641
Actual update 31450 of 50000, Stored update 31450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.930591
Actual update 31500 of 50000, Stored update 31500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.515340
Actual update 31550 of 50000, Stored update 31550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.011017
Actual update 31600 of 50000, Stored update 31600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.916690
Actual update 31650 of 50000, Stored update 31650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.090949
Actual update 31700 of 50000, Stored update 31700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.458759
Actual update 31750 of 50000, Stored update 31750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.454415
Actual update 31800 of 50000, Stored update 31800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.924321
Actual update 31850 of 50000, Stored update 31850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.318926
Actual update 31900 of 50000, Stored update 31900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.781153
Actual update 31950 of 50000, Stored update 31950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.974374
Actual update 32000 of 50000, Stored update 32000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.184803
Actual update 32050 of 50000, Stored update 32050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.237391
Actual update 32100 of 50000, Stored update 32100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.356117
Actual update 32150 of 50000, Stored update 32150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.458947
Actual update 32200 of 50000, Stored update 32200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.595783
Actual update 32250 of 50000, Stored update 32250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.150721
Actual update 32300 of 50000, Stored update 32300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.258717
Actual update 32350 of 50000, Stored update 32350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.722017
Actual update 32400 of 50000, Stored update 32400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.903650
Actual update 32450 of 50000, Stored update 32450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.525720
Actual update 32500 of 50000, Stored update 32500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.801996
Actual update 32550 of 50000, Stored update 32550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.503449
Actual update 32600 of 50000, Stored update 32600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.306319
Actual update 32650 of 50000, Stored update 32650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.989065
Actual update 32700 of 50000, Stored update 32700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.204904
Actual update 32750 of 50000, Stored update 32750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.527761
Actual update 32800 of 50000, Stored update 32800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.675381
Actual update 32850 of 50000, Stored update 32850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 245.775477
Actual update 32900 of 50000, Stored update 32900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.239129
Actual update 32950 of 50000, Stored update 32950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 318.443870
Actual update 33000 of 50000, Stored update 33000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.607176
Actual update 33050 of 50000, Stored update 33050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.843942
Actual update 33100 of 50000, Stored update 33100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.216606
Actual update 33150 of 50000, Stored update 33150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.877830
Actual update 33200 of 50000, Stored update 33200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.825800
Actual update 33250 of 50000, Stored update 33250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.962078
Actual update 33300 of 50000, Stored update 33300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.051937
Actual update 33350 of 50000, Stored update 33350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.087873
Actual update 33400 of 50000, Stored update 33400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.255422
Actual update 33450 of 50000, Stored update 33450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.541688
Actual update 33500 of 50000, Stored update 33500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.700083
Actual update 33550 of 50000, Stored update 33550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.820873
Actual update 33600 of 50000, Stored update 33600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.278538
Actual update 33650 of 50000, Stored update 33650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.374122
Actual update 33700 of 50000, Stored update 33700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.971935
Actual update 33750 of 50000, Stored update 33750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.754927
Actual update 33800 of 50000, Stored update 33800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.256871
Actual update 33850 of 50000, Stored update 33850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.746649
Actual update 33900 of 50000, Stored update 33900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.777304
Actual update 33950 of 50000, Stored update 33950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.216600
Actual update 34000 of 50000, Stored update 34000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.967900
Actual update 34050 of 50000, Stored update 34050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.774193
Actual update 34100 of 50000, Stored update 34100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.074956
Actual update 34150 of 50000, Stored update 34150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.282143
Actual update 34200 of 50000, Stored update 34200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.583553
Actual update 34250 of 50000, Stored update 34250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.647492
Actual update 34300 of 50000, Stored update 34300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.473033
Actual update 34350 of 50000, Stored update 34350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.135898
Actual update 34400 of 50000, Stored update 34400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.656383
Actual update 34450 of 50000, Stored update 34450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.733146
Actual update 34500 of 50000, Stored update 34500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.638408
Actual update 34550 of 50000, Stored update 34550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.336238
Actual update 34600 of 50000, Stored update 34600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.755366
Actual update 34650 of 50000, Stored update 34650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.805767
Actual update 34700 of 50000, Stored update 34700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.143785
Actual update 34750 of 50000, Stored update 34750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.976946
Actual update 34800 of 50000, Stored update 34800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.703487
Actual update 34850 of 50000, Stored update 34850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.895875
Actual update 34900 of 50000, Stored update 34900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.567081
Actual update 34950 of 50000, Stored update 34950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.322254
Actual update 35000 of 50000, Stored update 35000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.188596
Actual update 35050 of 50000, Stored update 35050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.212319
Actual update 35100 of 50000, Stored update 35100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.317609
Actual update 35150 of 50000, Stored update 35150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.793824
Actual update 35200 of 50000, Stored update 35200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.290952
Actual update 35250 of 50000, Stored update 35250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.750042
Actual update 35300 of 50000, Stored update 35300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.507749
Actual update 35350 of 50000, Stored update 35350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 304.686128
Actual update 35400 of 50000, Stored update 35400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.768415
Actual update 35450 of 50000, Stored update 35450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.608600
Actual update 35500 of 50000, Stored update 35500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.057376
Actual update 35550 of 50000, Stored update 35550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.380519
Actual update 35600 of 50000, Stored update 35600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.623484
Actual update 35650 of 50000, Stored update 35650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.326712
Actual update 35700 of 50000, Stored update 35700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.811085
Actual update 35750 of 50000, Stored update 35750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.348402
Actual update 35800 of 50000, Stored update 35800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.586387
Actual update 35850 of 50000, Stored update 35850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.720978
Actual update 35900 of 50000, Stored update 35900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.493842
Actual update 35950 of 50000, Stored update 35950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.010842
Actual update 36000 of 50000, Stored update 36000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.881637
Actual update 36050 of 50000, Stored update 36050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.871659
Actual update 36100 of 50000, Stored update 36100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.096641
Actual update 36150 of 50000, Stored update 36150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.308507
Actual update 36200 of 50000, Stored update 36200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.112876
Actual update 36250 of 50000, Stored update 36250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.541396
Actual update 36300 of 50000, Stored update 36300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.335245
Actual update 36350 of 50000, Stored update 36350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.631308
Actual update 36400 of 50000, Stored update 36400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.480628
Actual update 36450 of 50000, Stored update 36450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 243.628243
Actual update 36500 of 50000, Stored update 36500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.538829
Actual update 36550 of 50000, Stored update 36550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.509228
Actual update 36600 of 50000, Stored update 36600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.508569
Actual update 36650 of 50000, Stored update 36650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.113139
Actual update 36700 of 50000, Stored update 36700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.108912
Actual update 36750 of 50000, Stored update 36750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.229186
Actual update 36800 of 50000, Stored update 36800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.417036
Actual update 36850 of 50000, Stored update 36850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.469584
Actual update 36900 of 50000, Stored update 36900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.797856
Actual update 36950 of 50000, Stored update 36950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.849376
Actual update 37000 of 50000, Stored update 37000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.975134
Actual update 37050 of 50000, Stored update 37050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.509158
Actual update 37100 of 50000, Stored update 37100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.514253
Actual update 37150 of 50000, Stored update 37150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.977381
Actual update 37200 of 50000, Stored update 37200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.499399
Actual update 37250 of 50000, Stored update 37250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.650267
Actual update 37300 of 50000, Stored update 37300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.829148
Actual update 37350 of 50000, Stored update 37350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.867536
Actual update 37400 of 50000, Stored update 37400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.019750
Actual update 37450 of 50000, Stored update 37450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.842256
Actual update 37500 of 50000, Stored update 37500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.574758
Actual update 37550 of 50000, Stored update 37550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.331770
Actual update 37600 of 50000, Stored update 37600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.278367
Actual update 37650 of 50000, Stored update 37650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.733454
Actual update 37700 of 50000, Stored update 37700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.857194
Actual update 37750 of 50000, Stored update 37750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.035810
Actual update 37800 of 50000, Stored update 37800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.250143
Actual update 37850 of 50000, Stored update 37850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.702262
Actual update 37900 of 50000, Stored update 37900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.978499
Actual update 37950 of 50000, Stored update 37950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.559865
Actual update 38000 of 50000, Stored update 38000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.252112
Actual update 38050 of 50000, Stored update 38050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.161968
Actual update 38100 of 50000, Stored update 38100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.886610
Actual update 38150 of 50000, Stored update 38150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.311855
Actual update 38200 of 50000, Stored update 38200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.982864
Actual update 38250 of 50000, Stored update 38250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.630869
Actual update 38300 of 50000, Stored update 38300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.272726
Actual update 38350 of 50000, Stored update 38350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.025063
Actual update 38400 of 50000, Stored update 38400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.830569
Actual update 38450 of 50000, Stored update 38450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.094502
Actual update 38500 of 50000, Stored update 38500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.026689
Actual update 38550 of 50000, Stored update 38550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.108588
Actual update 38600 of 50000, Stored update 38600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.790537
Actual update 38650 of 50000, Stored update 38650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.419697
Actual update 38700 of 50000, Stored update 38700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.034912
Actual update 38750 of 50000, Stored update 38750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.021860
Actual update 38800 of 50000, Stored update 38800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.705856
Actual update 38850 of 50000, Stored update 38850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.052591
Actual update 38900 of 50000, Stored update 38900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 296.342866
Actual update 38950 of 50000, Stored update 38950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.658963
Actual update 39000 of 50000, Stored update 39000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.213326
Actual update 39050 of 50000, Stored update 39050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.536908
Actual update 39100 of 50000, Stored update 39100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.381672
Actual update 39150 of 50000, Stored update 39150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 246.697237
Actual update 39200 of 50000, Stored update 39200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.353326
Actual update 39250 of 50000, Stored update 39250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.560255
Actual update 39300 of 50000, Stored update 39300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.973820
Actual update 39350 of 50000, Stored update 39350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.305800
Actual update 39400 of 50000, Stored update 39400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.191490
Actual update 39450 of 50000, Stored update 39450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.604470
Actual update 39500 of 50000, Stored update 39500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.581435
Actual update 39550 of 50000, Stored update 39550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.804177
Actual update 39600 of 50000, Stored update 39600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.948962
Actual update 39650 of 50000, Stored update 39650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.512246
Actual update 39700 of 50000, Stored update 39700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.079326
Actual update 39750 of 50000, Stored update 39750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.136672
Actual update 39800 of 50000, Stored update 39800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.237776
Actual update 39850 of 50000, Stored update 39850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.484332
Actual update 39900 of 50000, Stored update 39900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.221243
Actual update 39950 of 50000, Stored update 39950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.363269
Actual update 40000 of 50000, Stored update 40000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 301.166246
Actual update 40050 of 50000, Stored update 40050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.358288
Actual update 40100 of 50000, Stored update 40100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.161960
Actual update 40150 of 50000, Stored update 40150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.744483
Actual update 40200 of 50000, Stored update 40200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.476155
Actual update 40250 of 50000, Stored update 40250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.100994
Actual update 40300 of 50000, Stored update 40300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.382934
Actual update 40350 of 50000, Stored update 40350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.825625
Actual update 40400 of 50000, Stored update 40400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.031410
Actual update 40450 of 50000, Stored update 40450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.986075
Actual update 40500 of 50000, Stored update 40500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.847850
Actual update 40550 of 50000, Stored update 40550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.654699
Actual update 40600 of 50000, Stored update 40600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.321285
Actual update 40650 of 50000, Stored update 40650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.508789
Actual update 40700 of 50000, Stored update 40700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.628483
Actual update 40750 of 50000, Stored update 40750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.689265
Actual update 40800 of 50000, Stored update 40800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.635631
Actual update 40850 of 50000, Stored update 40850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.985395
Actual update 40900 of 50000, Stored update 40900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.121473
Actual update 40950 of 50000, Stored update 40950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.553656
Actual update 41000 of 50000, Stored update 41000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.326008
Actual update 41050 of 50000, Stored update 41050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.113449
Actual update 41100 of 50000, Stored update 41100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.597487
Actual update 41150 of 50000, Stored update 41150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.032767
Actual update 41200 of 50000, Stored update 41200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.270056
Actual update 41250 of 50000, Stored update 41250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.626885
Actual update 41300 of 50000, Stored update 41300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.971580
Actual update 41350 of 50000, Stored update 41350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.019664
Actual update 41400 of 50000, Stored update 41400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.509276
Actual update 41450 of 50000, Stored update 41450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.392467
Actual update 41500 of 50000, Stored update 41500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.379046
Actual update 41550 of 50000, Stored update 41550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.011002
Actual update 41600 of 50000, Stored update 41600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.357182
Actual update 41650 of 50000, Stored update 41650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.769147
Actual update 41700 of 50000, Stored update 41700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.736272
Actual update 41750 of 50000, Stored update 41750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.533953
Actual update 41800 of 50000, Stored update 41800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.748305
Actual update 41850 of 50000, Stored update 41850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.678371
Actual update 41900 of 50000, Stored update 41900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.907603
Actual update 41950 of 50000, Stored update 41950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.396700
Actual update 42000 of 50000, Stored update 42000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 296.061540
Actual update 42050 of 50000, Stored update 42050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.502210
Actual update 42100 of 50000, Stored update 42100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.508287
Actual update 42150 of 50000, Stored update 42150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.541739
Actual update 42200 of 50000, Stored update 42200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.021145
Actual update 42250 of 50000, Stored update 42250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.257510
Actual update 42300 of 50000, Stored update 42300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.222127
Actual update 42350 of 50000, Stored update 42350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.534504
Actual update 42400 of 50000, Stored update 42400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.012304
Actual update 42450 of 50000, Stored update 42450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.714531
Actual update 42500 of 50000, Stored update 42500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.352539
Actual update 42550 of 50000, Stored update 42550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.448894
Actual update 42600 of 50000, Stored update 42600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.200392
Actual update 42650 of 50000, Stored update 42650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.889198
Actual update 42700 of 50000, Stored update 42700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.713630
Actual update 42750 of 50000, Stored update 42750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.303836
Actual update 42800 of 50000, Stored update 42800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.444535
Actual update 42850 of 50000, Stored update 42850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.109570
Actual update 42900 of 50000, Stored update 42900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.585217
Actual update 42950 of 50000, Stored update 42950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.534811
Actual update 43000 of 50000, Stored update 43000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.437675
Actual update 43050 of 50000, Stored update 43050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.354064
Actual update 43100 of 50000, Stored update 43100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.488807
Actual update 43150 of 50000, Stored update 43150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.119072
Actual update 43200 of 50000, Stored update 43200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.663795
Actual update 43250 of 50000, Stored update 43250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.644859
Actual update 43300 of 50000, Stored update 43300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 296.729575
Actual update 43350 of 50000, Stored update 43350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.766794
Actual update 43400 of 50000, Stored update 43400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.065502
Actual update 43450 of 50000, Stored update 43450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.656710
Actual update 43500 of 50000, Stored update 43500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.149920
Actual update 43550 of 50000, Stored update 43550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.053397
Actual update 43600 of 50000, Stored update 43600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.372193
Actual update 43650 of 50000, Stored update 43650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.211245
Actual update 43700 of 50000, Stored update 43700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.383103
Actual update 43750 of 50000, Stored update 43750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.258181
Actual update 43800 of 50000, Stored update 43800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.037066
Actual update 43850 of 50000, Stored update 43850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.974189
Actual update 43900 of 50000, Stored update 43900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.035181
Actual update 43950 of 50000, Stored update 43950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.503006
Actual update 44000 of 50000, Stored update 44000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.954827
Actual update 44050 of 50000, Stored update 44050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.919780
Actual update 44100 of 50000, Stored update 44100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.887919
Actual update 44150 of 50000, Stored update 44150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.403884
Actual update 44200 of 50000, Stored update 44200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.097309
Actual update 44250 of 50000, Stored update 44250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.158650
Actual update 44300 of 50000, Stored update 44300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.767829
Actual update 44350 of 50000, Stored update 44350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.622489
Actual update 44400 of 50000, Stored update 44400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.637828
Actual update 44450 of 50000, Stored update 44450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.311213
Actual update 44500 of 50000, Stored update 44500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.259291
Actual update 44550 of 50000, Stored update 44550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.625558
Actual update 44600 of 50000, Stored update 44600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.109259
Actual update 44650 of 50000, Stored update 44650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.841474
Actual update 44700 of 50000, Stored update 44700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.296436
Actual update 44750 of 50000, Stored update 44750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.791685
Actual update 44800 of 50000, Stored update 44800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.936168
Actual update 44850 of 50000, Stored update 44850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.510291
Actual update 44900 of 50000, Stored update 44900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.546216
Actual update 44950 of 50000, Stored update 44950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.597090
Actual update 45000 of 50000, Stored update 45000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.887462
Actual update 45050 of 50000, Stored update 45050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.430938
Actual update 45100 of 50000, Stored update 45100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.142365
Actual update 45150 of 50000, Stored update 45150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.309689
Actual update 45200 of 50000, Stored update 45200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.584577
Actual update 45250 of 50000, Stored update 45250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.604879
Actual update 45300 of 50000, Stored update 45300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.936037
Actual update 45350 of 50000, Stored update 45350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.239829
Actual update 45400 of 50000, Stored update 45400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.720173
Actual update 45450 of 50000, Stored update 45450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.977953
Actual update 45500 of 50000, Stored update 45500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.528887
Actual update 45550 of 50000, Stored update 45550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.706672
Actual update 45600 of 50000, Stored update 45600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.931333
Actual update 45650 of 50000, Stored update 45650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.048792
Actual update 45700 of 50000, Stored update 45700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.225979
Actual update 45750 of 50000, Stored update 45750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.327153
Actual update 45800 of 50000, Stored update 45800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.513770
Actual update 45850 of 50000, Stored update 45850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.399737
Actual update 45900 of 50000, Stored update 45900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.509138
Actual update 45950 of 50000, Stored update 45950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.498515
Actual update 46000 of 50000, Stored update 46000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.360163
Actual update 46050 of 50000, Stored update 46050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.374164
Actual update 46100 of 50000, Stored update 46100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.200834
Actual update 46150 of 50000, Stored update 46150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.351302
Actual update 46200 of 50000, Stored update 46200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.154991
Actual update 46250 of 50000, Stored update 46250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.617010
Actual update 46300 of 50000, Stored update 46300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.623988
Actual update 46350 of 50000, Stored update 46350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.457589
Actual update 46400 of 50000, Stored update 46400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.327139
Actual update 46450 of 50000, Stored update 46450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.654459
Actual update 46500 of 50000, Stored update 46500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 246.613050
Actual update 46550 of 50000, Stored update 46550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.217230
Actual update 46600 of 50000, Stored update 46600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.912051
Actual update 46650 of 50000, Stored update 46650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.548909
Actual update 46700 of 50000, Stored update 46700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.540301
Actual update 46750 of 50000, Stored update 46750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.458122
Actual update 46800 of 50000, Stored update 46800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 292.587425
Actual update 46850 of 50000, Stored update 46850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.312868
Actual update 46900 of 50000, Stored update 46900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.636330
Actual update 46950 of 50000, Stored update 46950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.982866
Actual update 47000 of 50000, Stored update 47000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.132649
Actual update 47050 of 50000, Stored update 47050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.191444
Actual update 47100 of 50000, Stored update 47100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.375533
Actual update 47150 of 50000, Stored update 47150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.975108
Actual update 47200 of 50000, Stored update 47200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.471568
Actual update 47250 of 50000, Stored update 47250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.774077
Actual update 47300 of 50000, Stored update 47300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.670978
Actual update 47350 of 50000, Stored update 47350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.625703
Actual update 47400 of 50000, Stored update 47400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.193544
Actual update 47450 of 50000, Stored update 47450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.504852
Actual update 47500 of 50000, Stored update 47500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.486830
Actual update 47550 of 50000, Stored update 47550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.424956
Actual update 47600 of 50000, Stored update 47600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.331563
Actual update 47650 of 50000, Stored update 47650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.188921
Actual update 47700 of 50000, Stored update 47700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.096638
Actual update 47750 of 50000, Stored update 47750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.884729
Actual update 47800 of 50000, Stored update 47800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.763286
Actual update 47850 of 50000, Stored update 47850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.533062
Actual update 47900 of 50000, Stored update 47900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.667755
Actual update 47950 of 50000, Stored update 47950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.646957
Actual update 48000 of 50000, Stored update 48000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.307954
Actual update 48050 of 50000, Stored update 48050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.704367
Actual update 48100 of 50000, Stored update 48100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 299.262614
Actual update 48150 of 50000, Stored update 48150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.943949
Actual update 48200 of 50000, Stored update 48200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.037003
Actual update 48250 of 50000, Stored update 48250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 245.006575
Actual update 48300 of 50000, Stored update 48300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.866961
Actual update 48350 of 50000, Stored update 48350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.788594
Actual update 48400 of 50000, Stored update 48400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.490280
Actual update 48450 of 50000, Stored update 48450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.399706
Actual update 48500 of 50000, Stored update 48500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.507994
Actual update 48550 of 50000, Stored update 48550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.488544
Actual update 48600 of 50000, Stored update 48600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.120695
Actual update 48650 of 50000, Stored update 48650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.865901
Actual update 48700 of 50000, Stored update 48700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.162362
Actual update 48750 of 50000, Stored update 48750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.435633
Actual update 48800 of 50000, Stored update 48800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.818723
Actual update 48850 of 50000, Stored update 48850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.228791
Actual update 48900 of 50000, Stored update 48900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.419438
Actual update 48950 of 50000, Stored update 48950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.134277
Actual update 49000 of 50000, Stored update 49000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.426150
Actual update 49050 of 50000, Stored update 49050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.849232
Actual update 49100 of 50000, Stored update 49100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.942893
Actual update 49150 of 50000, Stored update 49150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.539455
Actual update 49200 of 50000, Stored update 49200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.700680
Actual update 49250 of 50000, Stored update 49250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.334990
Actual update 49300 of 50000, Stored update 49300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.510886
Actual update 49350 of 50000, Stored update 49350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.725726
Actual update 49400 of 50000, Stored update 49400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.469900
Actual update 49450 of 50000, Stored update 49450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.394379
Actual update 49500 of 50000, Stored update 49500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.097237
Actual update 49550 of 50000, Stored update 49550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.214383
Actual update 49600 of 50000, Stored update 49600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.793068
Actual update 49650 of 50000, Stored update 49650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.766642
Actual update 49700 of 50000, Stored update 49700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.924436
Actual update 49750 of 50000, Stored update 49750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.172337
Actual update 49800 of 50000, Stored update 49800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.193532
Actual update 49850 of 50000, Stored update 49850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.203298
Actual update 49900 of 50000, Stored update 49900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.688782
Actual update 49950 of 50000, Stored update 49950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.791745
Actual update 50000 of 50000, Stored update 50000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.753110
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          50000
Average =          270.35
S.D.    =          10.860
S.E.M.  =        0.048567

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.15)  multilevel model (Poisson) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
neigh1 29   1 1.931034   5         29            1      1.931034            5
area   56   1 1.000000   1         56            1      1.000000            1
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Elapsed time : 2.43s 
Number of obs:  56 (from total 56)          Number of iter.: 50000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
270.354    230.614    39.740     310.095    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
log(obs) ~ 1 + perc_aff + offset(offs) + (0 | neigh1) + (1 | 
    area)
Level 3: neigh1     Level 2: area     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.50351     0.16692  -3.02    0.002557  **     -0.84084    -0.18629   450 
perc_aff     0.06922     0.01492   4.64   3.486e-06  ***     0.03977     0.09919   426 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the area level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.38612     0.11434      0.20929     0.65636   4941 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000     0.00000      1.00000     1.00000   50000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 17.4 A spatial multiple-membership (MM) model . . . . . . . . . . . . .252
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(log(obs) ~ 1 + perc_aff + offset(offs) + (1 | neigh1) + (1 | area), D = "Poisson", estoptions = list(mm = list(list(mmvar = list("neigh1",
+   "neigh2", "neigh3", "neigh4", "neigh5", "neigh6", "neigh7", "neigh8", "neigh9", "neigh10", "neigh11"), weights = list("weight1",
+   "weight2", "weight3", "weight4", "weight5", "weight6", "weight7", "weight8", "weight9", "weight10", "weight11")),
+   NA, NA), EstM = 1, mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000)), data = lips1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4
iteration 5

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 3
Setting up XC/MM data structures - may take a while
Setting up XC/MM data structures - may take a while
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 275.752960
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 263.751623
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 281.335006
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 268.592519
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 256.653505
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 260.605845
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 263.723933
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 259.980074
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 250.537525
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 270.433094
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 276.034784
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 269.921058
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 279.343701
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 258.006340
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 263.648314
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 268.747828
Adapting finished and took 1700 iterations
Adapting took 1700 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 278.631207
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 274.448805
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 274.514969
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 253.180645
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 256.567918
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 264.617588
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 256.130423
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 264.545528
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 276.733120
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 282.254126

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 50000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 3
Actual update 50 of 50000, Stored update 50 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.215602
Actual update 100 of 50000, Stored update 100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.444006
Actual update 150 of 50000, Stored update 150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.988727
Actual update 200 of 50000, Stored update 200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.732349
Actual update 250 of 50000, Stored update 250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.687163
Actual update 300 of 50000, Stored update 300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 244.232514
Actual update 350 of 50000, Stored update 350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.891885
Actual update 400 of 50000, Stored update 400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.457979
Actual update 450 of 50000, Stored update 450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.646562
Actual update 500 of 50000, Stored update 500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.530100
Actual update 550 of 50000, Stored update 550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.470420
Actual update 600 of 50000, Stored update 600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.113049
Actual update 650 of 50000, Stored update 650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.200536
Actual update 700 of 50000, Stored update 700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.320549
Actual update 750 of 50000, Stored update 750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.610834
Actual update 800 of 50000, Stored update 800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.591042
Actual update 850 of 50000, Stored update 850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.449305
Actual update 900 of 50000, Stored update 900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.122414
Actual update 950 of 50000, Stored update 950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.661698
Actual update 1000 of 50000, Stored update 1000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.891779
Actual update 1050 of 50000, Stored update 1050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.925065
Actual update 1100 of 50000, Stored update 1100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.390874
Actual update 1150 of 50000, Stored update 1150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.664442
Actual update 1200 of 50000, Stored update 1200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.220606
Actual update 1250 of 50000, Stored update 1250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.660066
Actual update 1300 of 50000, Stored update 1300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.788733
Actual update 1350 of 50000, Stored update 1350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.783758
Actual update 1400 of 50000, Stored update 1400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.465616
Actual update 1450 of 50000, Stored update 1450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.322827
Actual update 1500 of 50000, Stored update 1500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.893709
Actual update 1550 of 50000, Stored update 1550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.601904
Actual update 1600 of 50000, Stored update 1600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.582566
Actual update 1650 of 50000, Stored update 1650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.972670
Actual update 1700 of 50000, Stored update 1700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.267125
Actual update 1750 of 50000, Stored update 1750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 298.954396
Actual update 1800 of 50000, Stored update 1800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.643940
Actual update 1850 of 50000, Stored update 1850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.037971
Actual update 1900 of 50000, Stored update 1900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.829341
Actual update 1950 of 50000, Stored update 1950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.156437
Actual update 2000 of 50000, Stored update 2000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.019502
Actual update 2050 of 50000, Stored update 2050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.225469
Actual update 2100 of 50000, Stored update 2100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.561030
Actual update 2150 of 50000, Stored update 2150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.910560
Actual update 2200 of 50000, Stored update 2200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.522069
Actual update 2250 of 50000, Stored update 2250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.903805
Actual update 2300 of 50000, Stored update 2300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.966120
Actual update 2350 of 50000, Stored update 2350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.236604
Actual update 2400 of 50000, Stored update 2400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.554391
Actual update 2450 of 50000, Stored update 2450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.321916
Actual update 2500 of 50000, Stored update 2500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.952232
Actual update 2550 of 50000, Stored update 2550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.868870
Actual update 2600 of 50000, Stored update 2600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.144648
Actual update 2650 of 50000, Stored update 2650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.940258
Actual update 2700 of 50000, Stored update 2700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.347619
Actual update 2750 of 50000, Stored update 2750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.508440
Actual update 2800 of 50000, Stored update 2800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.244812
Actual update 2850 of 50000, Stored update 2850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.521602
Actual update 2900 of 50000, Stored update 2900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.942817
Actual update 2950 of 50000, Stored update 2950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.604791
Actual update 3000 of 50000, Stored update 3000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.322622
Actual update 3050 of 50000, Stored update 3050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.447712
Actual update 3100 of 50000, Stored update 3100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.927848
Actual update 3150 of 50000, Stored update 3150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.464291
Actual update 3200 of 50000, Stored update 3200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.781543
Actual update 3250 of 50000, Stored update 3250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.291553
Actual update 3300 of 50000, Stored update 3300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.821473
Actual update 3350 of 50000, Stored update 3350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.891584
Actual update 3400 of 50000, Stored update 3400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.393483
Actual update 3450 of 50000, Stored update 3450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.729000
Actual update 3500 of 50000, Stored update 3500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.664839
Actual update 3550 of 50000, Stored update 3550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.126844
Actual update 3600 of 50000, Stored update 3600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 299.962850
Actual update 3650 of 50000, Stored update 3650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.189527
Actual update 3700 of 50000, Stored update 3700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.585841
Actual update 3750 of 50000, Stored update 3750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.931730
Actual update 3800 of 50000, Stored update 3800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.299606
Actual update 3850 of 50000, Stored update 3850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 246.801107
Actual update 3900 of 50000, Stored update 3900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.423264
Actual update 3950 of 50000, Stored update 3950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.600909
Actual update 4000 of 50000, Stored update 4000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.590053
Actual update 4050 of 50000, Stored update 4050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.518064
Actual update 4100 of 50000, Stored update 4100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.559947
Actual update 4150 of 50000, Stored update 4150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.108829
Actual update 4200 of 50000, Stored update 4200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.306245
Actual update 4250 of 50000, Stored update 4250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.622672
Actual update 4300 of 50000, Stored update 4300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.953494
Actual update 4350 of 50000, Stored update 4350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.670008
Actual update 4400 of 50000, Stored update 4400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.339907
Actual update 4450 of 50000, Stored update 4450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.685840
Actual update 4500 of 50000, Stored update 4500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.720902
Actual update 4550 of 50000, Stored update 4550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.527116
Actual update 4600 of 50000, Stored update 4600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.158392
Actual update 4650 of 50000, Stored update 4650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.796511
Actual update 4700 of 50000, Stored update 4700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.718696
Actual update 4750 of 50000, Stored update 4750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.167716
Actual update 4800 of 50000, Stored update 4800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.915697
Actual update 4850 of 50000, Stored update 4850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.005944
Actual update 4900 of 50000, Stored update 4900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.898228
Actual update 4950 of 50000, Stored update 4950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.977939
Actual update 5000 of 50000, Stored update 5000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.538883
Actual update 5050 of 50000, Stored update 5050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 247.191705
Actual update 5100 of 50000, Stored update 5100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.344938
Actual update 5150 of 50000, Stored update 5150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.469039
Actual update 5200 of 50000, Stored update 5200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.833235
Actual update 5250 of 50000, Stored update 5250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.189067
Actual update 5300 of 50000, Stored update 5300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.703604
Actual update 5350 of 50000, Stored update 5350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.835799
Actual update 5400 of 50000, Stored update 5400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.866668
Actual update 5450 of 50000, Stored update 5450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.951579
Actual update 5500 of 50000, Stored update 5500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.550507
Actual update 5550 of 50000, Stored update 5550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.243591
Actual update 5600 of 50000, Stored update 5600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.732995
Actual update 5650 of 50000, Stored update 5650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.649782
Actual update 5700 of 50000, Stored update 5700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.281614
Actual update 5750 of 50000, Stored update 5750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.546061
Actual update 5800 of 50000, Stored update 5800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.091098
Actual update 5850 of 50000, Stored update 5850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.589352
Actual update 5900 of 50000, Stored update 5900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.755999
Actual update 5950 of 50000, Stored update 5950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.561796
Actual update 6000 of 50000, Stored update 6000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.048956
Actual update 6050 of 50000, Stored update 6050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.263952
Actual update 6100 of 50000, Stored update 6100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.422692
Actual update 6150 of 50000, Stored update 6150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.326704
Actual update 6200 of 50000, Stored update 6200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.378877
Actual update 6250 of 50000, Stored update 6250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.862689
Actual update 6300 of 50000, Stored update 6300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.423541
Actual update 6350 of 50000, Stored update 6350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.344037
Actual update 6400 of 50000, Stored update 6400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.008983
Actual update 6450 of 50000, Stored update 6450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.709951
Actual update 6500 of 50000, Stored update 6500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.087911
Actual update 6550 of 50000, Stored update 6550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.233063
Actual update 6600 of 50000, Stored update 6600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.509251
Actual update 6650 of 50000, Stored update 6650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.569455
Actual update 6700 of 50000, Stored update 6700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.867413
Actual update 6750 of 50000, Stored update 6750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.317756
Actual update 6800 of 50000, Stored update 6800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.756272
Actual update 6850 of 50000, Stored update 6850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.757232
Actual update 6900 of 50000, Stored update 6900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.584230
Actual update 6950 of 50000, Stored update 6950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.271525
Actual update 7000 of 50000, Stored update 7000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.297304
Actual update 7050 of 50000, Stored update 7050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.377906
Actual update 7100 of 50000, Stored update 7100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.491446
Actual update 7150 of 50000, Stored update 7150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.131178
Actual update 7200 of 50000, Stored update 7200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.113671
Actual update 7250 of 50000, Stored update 7250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.841057
Actual update 7300 of 50000, Stored update 7300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.706138
Actual update 7350 of 50000, Stored update 7350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.174285
Actual update 7400 of 50000, Stored update 7400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.203797
Actual update 7450 of 50000, Stored update 7450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.958864
Actual update 7500 of 50000, Stored update 7500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.309350
Actual update 7550 of 50000, Stored update 7550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.424398
Actual update 7600 of 50000, Stored update 7600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.464300
Actual update 7650 of 50000, Stored update 7650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.881442
Actual update 7700 of 50000, Stored update 7700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.650702
Actual update 7750 of 50000, Stored update 7750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.570227
Actual update 7800 of 50000, Stored update 7800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.893954
Actual update 7850 of 50000, Stored update 7850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.031362
Actual update 7900 of 50000, Stored update 7900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.679387
Actual update 7950 of 50000, Stored update 7950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.450423
Actual update 8000 of 50000, Stored update 8000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.400012
Actual update 8050 of 50000, Stored update 8050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.402831
Actual update 8100 of 50000, Stored update 8100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 247.261183
Actual update 8150 of 50000, Stored update 8150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.392520
Actual update 8200 of 50000, Stored update 8200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.876636
Actual update 8250 of 50000, Stored update 8250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.259775
Actual update 8300 of 50000, Stored update 8300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.147071
Actual update 8350 of 50000, Stored update 8350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.972050
Actual update 8400 of 50000, Stored update 8400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.485041
Actual update 8450 of 50000, Stored update 8450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.079095
Actual update 8500 of 50000, Stored update 8500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.233628
Actual update 8550 of 50000, Stored update 8550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.988175
Actual update 8600 of 50000, Stored update 8600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.727246
Actual update 8650 of 50000, Stored update 8650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.311280
Actual update 8700 of 50000, Stored update 8700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.990659
Actual update 8750 of 50000, Stored update 8750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.686870
Actual update 8800 of 50000, Stored update 8800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.226724
Actual update 8850 of 50000, Stored update 8850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.336234
Actual update 8900 of 50000, Stored update 8900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.018898
Actual update 8950 of 50000, Stored update 8950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.746179
Actual update 9000 of 50000, Stored update 9000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.893314
Actual update 9050 of 50000, Stored update 9050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.529143
Actual update 9100 of 50000, Stored update 9100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.098593
Actual update 9150 of 50000, Stored update 9150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.907952
Actual update 9200 of 50000, Stored update 9200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.486958
Actual update 9250 of 50000, Stored update 9250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.638718
Actual update 9300 of 50000, Stored update 9300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.532729
Actual update 9350 of 50000, Stored update 9350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.946359
Actual update 9400 of 50000, Stored update 9400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 244.481159
Actual update 9450 of 50000, Stored update 9450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.876579
Actual update 9500 of 50000, Stored update 9500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.689153
Actual update 9550 of 50000, Stored update 9550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.937783
Actual update 9600 of 50000, Stored update 9600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.781655
Actual update 9650 of 50000, Stored update 9650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.160850
Actual update 9700 of 50000, Stored update 9700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.016914
Actual update 9750 of 50000, Stored update 9750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.061580
Actual update 9800 of 50000, Stored update 9800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.638260
Actual update 9850 of 50000, Stored update 9850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.735191
Actual update 9900 of 50000, Stored update 9900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.915376
Actual update 9950 of 50000, Stored update 9950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.540906
Actual update 10000 of 50000, Stored update 10000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.181459
Actual update 10050 of 50000, Stored update 10050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.182092
Actual update 10100 of 50000, Stored update 10100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.464480
Actual update 10150 of 50000, Stored update 10150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.918732
Actual update 10200 of 50000, Stored update 10200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.860112
Actual update 10250 of 50000, Stored update 10250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.585831
Actual update 10300 of 50000, Stored update 10300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.071101
Actual update 10350 of 50000, Stored update 10350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.502393
Actual update 10400 of 50000, Stored update 10400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.937777
Actual update 10450 of 50000, Stored update 10450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.919189
Actual update 10500 of 50000, Stored update 10500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.989268
Actual update 10550 of 50000, Stored update 10550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.399962
Actual update 10600 of 50000, Stored update 10600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.755995
Actual update 10650 of 50000, Stored update 10650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.316465
Actual update 10700 of 50000, Stored update 10700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.929892
Actual update 10750 of 50000, Stored update 10750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.491039
Actual update 10800 of 50000, Stored update 10800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.607319
Actual update 10850 of 50000, Stored update 10850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.070920
Actual update 10900 of 50000, Stored update 10900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.772946
Actual update 10950 of 50000, Stored update 10950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.036945
Actual update 11000 of 50000, Stored update 11000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.138003
Actual update 11050 of 50000, Stored update 11050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.330668
Actual update 11100 of 50000, Stored update 11100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.444390
Actual update 11150 of 50000, Stored update 11150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.171382
Actual update 11200 of 50000, Stored update 11200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.348382
Actual update 11250 of 50000, Stored update 11250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.271585
Actual update 11300 of 50000, Stored update 11300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.003685
Actual update 11350 of 50000, Stored update 11350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.916304
Actual update 11400 of 50000, Stored update 11400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.452391
Actual update 11450 of 50000, Stored update 11450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.313941
Actual update 11500 of 50000, Stored update 11500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.428510
Actual update 11550 of 50000, Stored update 11550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.449405
Actual update 11600 of 50000, Stored update 11600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.915431
Actual update 11650 of 50000, Stored update 11650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.476405
Actual update 11700 of 50000, Stored update 11700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.362545
Actual update 11750 of 50000, Stored update 11750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.412552
Actual update 11800 of 50000, Stored update 11800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.573601
Actual update 11850 of 50000, Stored update 11850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.878328
Actual update 11900 of 50000, Stored update 11900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.042277
Actual update 11950 of 50000, Stored update 11950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.244920
Actual update 12000 of 50000, Stored update 12000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.034459
Actual update 12050 of 50000, Stored update 12050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.338356
Actual update 12100 of 50000, Stored update 12100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.162422
Actual update 12150 of 50000, Stored update 12150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.898755
Actual update 12200 of 50000, Stored update 12200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.508358
Actual update 12250 of 50000, Stored update 12250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.539705
Actual update 12300 of 50000, Stored update 12300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.819969
Actual update 12350 of 50000, Stored update 12350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.909054
Actual update 12400 of 50000, Stored update 12400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.149321
Actual update 12450 of 50000, Stored update 12450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.737961
Actual update 12500 of 50000, Stored update 12500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.126427
Actual update 12550 of 50000, Stored update 12550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.308303
Actual update 12600 of 50000, Stored update 12600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.113158
Actual update 12650 of 50000, Stored update 12650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.064822
Actual update 12700 of 50000, Stored update 12700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.041973
Actual update 12750 of 50000, Stored update 12750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.557843
Actual update 12800 of 50000, Stored update 12800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.255866
Actual update 12850 of 50000, Stored update 12850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.317443
Actual update 12900 of 50000, Stored update 12900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.661973
Actual update 12950 of 50000, Stored update 12950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.733951
Actual update 13000 of 50000, Stored update 13000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.429626
Actual update 13050 of 50000, Stored update 13050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.144091
Actual update 13100 of 50000, Stored update 13100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.743298
Actual update 13150 of 50000, Stored update 13150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.856923
Actual update 13200 of 50000, Stored update 13200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.178899
Actual update 13250 of 50000, Stored update 13250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.121016
Actual update 13300 of 50000, Stored update 13300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.951741
Actual update 13350 of 50000, Stored update 13350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.951720
Actual update 13400 of 50000, Stored update 13400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.707780
Actual update 13450 of 50000, Stored update 13450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.363369
Actual update 13500 of 50000, Stored update 13500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.728437
Actual update 13550 of 50000, Stored update 13550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.179424
Actual update 13600 of 50000, Stored update 13600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.154799
Actual update 13650 of 50000, Stored update 13650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.275286
Actual update 13700 of 50000, Stored update 13700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.401223
Actual update 13750 of 50000, Stored update 13750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.052855
Actual update 13800 of 50000, Stored update 13800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.641478
Actual update 13850 of 50000, Stored update 13850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 292.970648
Actual update 13900 of 50000, Stored update 13900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.796202
Actual update 13950 of 50000, Stored update 13950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.501927
Actual update 14000 of 50000, Stored update 14000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.788786
Actual update 14050 of 50000, Stored update 14050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.174779
Actual update 14100 of 50000, Stored update 14100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.591438
Actual update 14150 of 50000, Stored update 14150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.627235
Actual update 14200 of 50000, Stored update 14200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.483395
Actual update 14250 of 50000, Stored update 14250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.889623
Actual update 14300 of 50000, Stored update 14300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.459881
Actual update 14350 of 50000, Stored update 14350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.201081
Actual update 14400 of 50000, Stored update 14400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.472345
Actual update 14450 of 50000, Stored update 14450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.112051
Actual update 14500 of 50000, Stored update 14500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.922539
Actual update 14550 of 50000, Stored update 14550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.450826
Actual update 14600 of 50000, Stored update 14600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.948272
Actual update 14650 of 50000, Stored update 14650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.824690
Actual update 14700 of 50000, Stored update 14700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.422197
Actual update 14750 of 50000, Stored update 14750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.327075
Actual update 14800 of 50000, Stored update 14800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.296825
Actual update 14850 of 50000, Stored update 14850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.996430
Actual update 14900 of 50000, Stored update 14900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.671385
Actual update 14950 of 50000, Stored update 14950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.763984
Actual update 15000 of 50000, Stored update 15000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.538243
Actual update 15050 of 50000, Stored update 15050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.383125
Actual update 15100 of 50000, Stored update 15100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.785161
Actual update 15150 of 50000, Stored update 15150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.247377
Actual update 15200 of 50000, Stored update 15200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.556420
Actual update 15250 of 50000, Stored update 15250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 299.256196
Actual update 15300 of 50000, Stored update 15300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.207490
Actual update 15350 of 50000, Stored update 15350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.344636
Actual update 15400 of 50000, Stored update 15400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.008631
Actual update 15450 of 50000, Stored update 15450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.242761
Actual update 15500 of 50000, Stored update 15500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.657275
Actual update 15550 of 50000, Stored update 15550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.583378
Actual update 15600 of 50000, Stored update 15600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.315414
Actual update 15650 of 50000, Stored update 15650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.924087
Actual update 15700 of 50000, Stored update 15700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.240969
Actual update 15750 of 50000, Stored update 15750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.157675
Actual update 15800 of 50000, Stored update 15800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.240782
Actual update 15850 of 50000, Stored update 15850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.547651
Actual update 15900 of 50000, Stored update 15900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 297.730491
Actual update 15950 of 50000, Stored update 15950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.900190
Actual update 16000 of 50000, Stored update 16000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.189934
Actual update 16050 of 50000, Stored update 16050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.704884
Actual update 16100 of 50000, Stored update 16100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.995370
Actual update 16150 of 50000, Stored update 16150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 294.246043
Actual update 16200 of 50000, Stored update 16200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.648493
Actual update 16250 of 50000, Stored update 16250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.435530
Actual update 16300 of 50000, Stored update 16300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.259839
Actual update 16350 of 50000, Stored update 16350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.745798
Actual update 16400 of 50000, Stored update 16400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.037507
Actual update 16450 of 50000, Stored update 16450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.098300
Actual update 16500 of 50000, Stored update 16500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.896356
Actual update 16550 of 50000, Stored update 16550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.743566
Actual update 16600 of 50000, Stored update 16600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.732828
Actual update 16650 of 50000, Stored update 16650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.116281
Actual update 16700 of 50000, Stored update 16700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.610128
Actual update 16750 of 50000, Stored update 16750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.607359
Actual update 16800 of 50000, Stored update 16800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.315218
Actual update 16850 of 50000, Stored update 16850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.586638
Actual update 16900 of 50000, Stored update 16900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.218953
Actual update 16950 of 50000, Stored update 16950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.364756
Actual update 17000 of 50000, Stored update 17000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.274506
Actual update 17050 of 50000, Stored update 17050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 308.122948
Actual update 17100 of 50000, Stored update 17100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.126255
Actual update 17150 of 50000, Stored update 17150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.811990
Actual update 17200 of 50000, Stored update 17200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.177447
Actual update 17250 of 50000, Stored update 17250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.972961
Actual update 17300 of 50000, Stored update 17300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.792011
Actual update 17350 of 50000, Stored update 17350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.447681
Actual update 17400 of 50000, Stored update 17400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.278273
Actual update 17450 of 50000, Stored update 17450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.722818
Actual update 17500 of 50000, Stored update 17500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.000293
Actual update 17550 of 50000, Stored update 17550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.049292
Actual update 17600 of 50000, Stored update 17600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.839197
Actual update 17650 of 50000, Stored update 17650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.635851
Actual update 17700 of 50000, Stored update 17700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.091993
Actual update 17750 of 50000, Stored update 17750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.121041
Actual update 17800 of 50000, Stored update 17800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.619863
Actual update 17850 of 50000, Stored update 17850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.518018
Actual update 17900 of 50000, Stored update 17900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.910482
Actual update 17950 of 50000, Stored update 17950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.221451
Actual update 18000 of 50000, Stored update 18000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.733387
Actual update 18050 of 50000, Stored update 18050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.545011
Actual update 18100 of 50000, Stored update 18100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.416920
Actual update 18150 of 50000, Stored update 18150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 298.033923
Actual update 18200 of 50000, Stored update 18200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.356720
Actual update 18250 of 50000, Stored update 18250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.098205
Actual update 18300 of 50000, Stored update 18300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.639954
Actual update 18350 of 50000, Stored update 18350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.487538
Actual update 18400 of 50000, Stored update 18400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.974842
Actual update 18450 of 50000, Stored update 18450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.677868
Actual update 18500 of 50000, Stored update 18500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.086664
Actual update 18550 of 50000, Stored update 18550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.437883
Actual update 18600 of 50000, Stored update 18600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.104434
Actual update 18650 of 50000, Stored update 18650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.229436
Actual update 18700 of 50000, Stored update 18700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.307727
Actual update 18750 of 50000, Stored update 18750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.005901
Actual update 18800 of 50000, Stored update 18800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.306365
Actual update 18850 of 50000, Stored update 18850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.011711
Actual update 18900 of 50000, Stored update 18900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.643820
Actual update 18950 of 50000, Stored update 18950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.855914
Actual update 19000 of 50000, Stored update 19000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.886045
Actual update 19050 of 50000, Stored update 19050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.446403
Actual update 19100 of 50000, Stored update 19100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.718955
Actual update 19150 of 50000, Stored update 19150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.720832
Actual update 19200 of 50000, Stored update 19200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.788391
Actual update 19250 of 50000, Stored update 19250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.089439
Actual update 19300 of 50000, Stored update 19300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.053698
Actual update 19350 of 50000, Stored update 19350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.220097
Actual update 19400 of 50000, Stored update 19400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.436405
Actual update 19450 of 50000, Stored update 19450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.810865
Actual update 19500 of 50000, Stored update 19500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.502074
Actual update 19550 of 50000, Stored update 19550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.314852
Actual update 19600 of 50000, Stored update 19600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.643018
Actual update 19650 of 50000, Stored update 19650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.756120
Actual update 19700 of 50000, Stored update 19700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.033288
Actual update 19750 of 50000, Stored update 19750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.428990
Actual update 19800 of 50000, Stored update 19800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.268668
Actual update 19850 of 50000, Stored update 19850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.664213
Actual update 19900 of 50000, Stored update 19900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.760653
Actual update 19950 of 50000, Stored update 19950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.573353
Actual update 20000 of 50000, Stored update 20000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.488084
Actual update 20050 of 50000, Stored update 20050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.928056
Actual update 20100 of 50000, Stored update 20100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.009524
Actual update 20150 of 50000, Stored update 20150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.368383
Actual update 20200 of 50000, Stored update 20200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.204571
Actual update 20250 of 50000, Stored update 20250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.510284
Actual update 20300 of 50000, Stored update 20300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.273021
Actual update 20350 of 50000, Stored update 20350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.024339
Actual update 20400 of 50000, Stored update 20400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 301.500275
Actual update 20450 of 50000, Stored update 20450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.270282
Actual update 20500 of 50000, Stored update 20500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.292159
Actual update 20550 of 50000, Stored update 20550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.522443
Actual update 20600 of 50000, Stored update 20600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.740283
Actual update 20650 of 50000, Stored update 20650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.770804
Actual update 20700 of 50000, Stored update 20700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 292.385915
Actual update 20750 of 50000, Stored update 20750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.480934
Actual update 20800 of 50000, Stored update 20800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.016510
Actual update 20850 of 50000, Stored update 20850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.404252
Actual update 20900 of 50000, Stored update 20900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.012603
Actual update 20950 of 50000, Stored update 20950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.959289
Actual update 21000 of 50000, Stored update 21000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.104928
Actual update 21050 of 50000, Stored update 21050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.340994
Actual update 21100 of 50000, Stored update 21100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.110922
Actual update 21150 of 50000, Stored update 21150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.123578
Actual update 21200 of 50000, Stored update 21200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.360553
Actual update 21250 of 50000, Stored update 21250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.243242
Actual update 21300 of 50000, Stored update 21300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.251060
Actual update 21350 of 50000, Stored update 21350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.864732
Actual update 21400 of 50000, Stored update 21400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.944987
Actual update 21450 of 50000, Stored update 21450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.994072
Actual update 21500 of 50000, Stored update 21500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.795193
Actual update 21550 of 50000, Stored update 21550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.215034
Actual update 21600 of 50000, Stored update 21600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.596406
Actual update 21650 of 50000, Stored update 21650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.218849
Actual update 21700 of 50000, Stored update 21700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.314175
Actual update 21750 of 50000, Stored update 21750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.257755
Actual update 21800 of 50000, Stored update 21800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.034038
Actual update 21850 of 50000, Stored update 21850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.622344
Actual update 21900 of 50000, Stored update 21900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.040685
Actual update 21950 of 50000, Stored update 21950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.203184
Actual update 22000 of 50000, Stored update 22000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.466037
Actual update 22050 of 50000, Stored update 22050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 295.031202
Actual update 22100 of 50000, Stored update 22100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.141205
Actual update 22150 of 50000, Stored update 22150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.978386
Actual update 22200 of 50000, Stored update 22200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.724628
Actual update 22250 of 50000, Stored update 22250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.739005
Actual update 22300 of 50000, Stored update 22300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.502277
Actual update 22350 of 50000, Stored update 22350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.247625
Actual update 22400 of 50000, Stored update 22400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.743407
Actual update 22450 of 50000, Stored update 22450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.332752
Actual update 22500 of 50000, Stored update 22500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.056788
Actual update 22550 of 50000, Stored update 22550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.985830
Actual update 22600 of 50000, Stored update 22600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.535230
Actual update 22650 of 50000, Stored update 22650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.022523
Actual update 22700 of 50000, Stored update 22700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.467859
Actual update 22750 of 50000, Stored update 22750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.227044
Actual update 22800 of 50000, Stored update 22800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.925382
Actual update 22850 of 50000, Stored update 22850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.307022
Actual update 22900 of 50000, Stored update 22900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.156131
Actual update 22950 of 50000, Stored update 22950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.852994
Actual update 23000 of 50000, Stored update 23000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.810354
Actual update 23050 of 50000, Stored update 23050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.907970
Actual update 23100 of 50000, Stored update 23100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.187055
Actual update 23150 of 50000, Stored update 23150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.815772
Actual update 23200 of 50000, Stored update 23200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.415926
Actual update 23250 of 50000, Stored update 23250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.596779
Actual update 23300 of 50000, Stored update 23300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.936304
Actual update 23350 of 50000, Stored update 23350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.288165
Actual update 23400 of 50000, Stored update 23400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.887809
Actual update 23450 of 50000, Stored update 23450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.178050
Actual update 23500 of 50000, Stored update 23500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.687175
Actual update 23550 of 50000, Stored update 23550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.131574
Actual update 23600 of 50000, Stored update 23600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.376685
Actual update 23650 of 50000, Stored update 23650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.713995
Actual update 23700 of 50000, Stored update 23700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.302981
Actual update 23750 of 50000, Stored update 23750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.127105
Actual update 23800 of 50000, Stored update 23800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.552553
Actual update 23850 of 50000, Stored update 23850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.173446
Actual update 23900 of 50000, Stored update 23900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.968571
Actual update 23950 of 50000, Stored update 23950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.124767
Actual update 24000 of 50000, Stored update 24000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.300868
Actual update 24050 of 50000, Stored update 24050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.060936
Actual update 24100 of 50000, Stored update 24100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.009724
Actual update 24150 of 50000, Stored update 24150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.661209
Actual update 24200 of 50000, Stored update 24200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.874314
Actual update 24250 of 50000, Stored update 24250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.557058
Actual update 24300 of 50000, Stored update 24300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.919028
Actual update 24350 of 50000, Stored update 24350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.078942
Actual update 24400 of 50000, Stored update 24400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.478584
Actual update 24450 of 50000, Stored update 24450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.220816
Actual update 24500 of 50000, Stored update 24500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.245738
Actual update 24550 of 50000, Stored update 24550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.288320
Actual update 24600 of 50000, Stored update 24600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.393233
Actual update 24650 of 50000, Stored update 24650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.162353
Actual update 24700 of 50000, Stored update 24700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.892095
Actual update 24750 of 50000, Stored update 24750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.392958
Actual update 24800 of 50000, Stored update 24800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.571130
Actual update 24850 of 50000, Stored update 24850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.175743
Actual update 24900 of 50000, Stored update 24900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.283117
Actual update 24950 of 50000, Stored update 24950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.803459
Actual update 25000 of 50000, Stored update 25000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.317823
Actual update 25050 of 50000, Stored update 25050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.326590
Actual update 25100 of 50000, Stored update 25100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.380301
Actual update 25150 of 50000, Stored update 25150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.159117
Actual update 25200 of 50000, Stored update 25200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.611819
Actual update 25250 of 50000, Stored update 25250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.209518
Actual update 25300 of 50000, Stored update 25300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.748208
Actual update 25350 of 50000, Stored update 25350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.489042
Actual update 25400 of 50000, Stored update 25400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.911022
Actual update 25450 of 50000, Stored update 25450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.759785
Actual update 25500 of 50000, Stored update 25500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.338091
Actual update 25550 of 50000, Stored update 25550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.876701
Actual update 25600 of 50000, Stored update 25600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.928678
Actual update 25650 of 50000, Stored update 25650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 245.837721
Actual update 25700 of 50000, Stored update 25700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.538125
Actual update 25750 of 50000, Stored update 25750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.488117
Actual update 25800 of 50000, Stored update 25800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.850216
Actual update 25850 of 50000, Stored update 25850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.827545
Actual update 25900 of 50000, Stored update 25900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.547229
Actual update 25950 of 50000, Stored update 25950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.948347
Actual update 26000 of 50000, Stored update 26000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.079566
Actual update 26050 of 50000, Stored update 26050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.094367
Actual update 26100 of 50000, Stored update 26100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.091449
Actual update 26150 of 50000, Stored update 26150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.721905
Actual update 26200 of 50000, Stored update 26200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.747431
Actual update 26250 of 50000, Stored update 26250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.800860
Actual update 26300 of 50000, Stored update 26300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 297.583231
Actual update 26350 of 50000, Stored update 26350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.966013
Actual update 26400 of 50000, Stored update 26400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.862825
Actual update 26450 of 50000, Stored update 26450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.202664
Actual update 26500 of 50000, Stored update 26500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.509395
Actual update 26550 of 50000, Stored update 26550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.932866
Actual update 26600 of 50000, Stored update 26600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.303190
Actual update 26650 of 50000, Stored update 26650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.857928
Actual update 26700 of 50000, Stored update 26700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.713217
Actual update 26750 of 50000, Stored update 26750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.594575
Actual update 26800 of 50000, Stored update 26800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.114472
Actual update 26850 of 50000, Stored update 26850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.185236
Actual update 26900 of 50000, Stored update 26900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.155529
Actual update 26950 of 50000, Stored update 26950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.455564
Actual update 27000 of 50000, Stored update 27000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.580871
Actual update 27050 of 50000, Stored update 27050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.296110
Actual update 27100 of 50000, Stored update 27100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.361855
Actual update 27150 of 50000, Stored update 27150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.844364
Actual update 27200 of 50000, Stored update 27200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.567335
Actual update 27250 of 50000, Stored update 27250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.384877
Actual update 27300 of 50000, Stored update 27300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.059996
Actual update 27350 of 50000, Stored update 27350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.199757
Actual update 27400 of 50000, Stored update 27400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.778548
Actual update 27450 of 50000, Stored update 27450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.510210
Actual update 27500 of 50000, Stored update 27500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.020137
Actual update 27550 of 50000, Stored update 27550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.813597
Actual update 27600 of 50000, Stored update 27600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.093206
Actual update 27650 of 50000, Stored update 27650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.990136
Actual update 27700 of 50000, Stored update 27700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.520245
Actual update 27750 of 50000, Stored update 27750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.888520
Actual update 27800 of 50000, Stored update 27800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.330313
Actual update 27850 of 50000, Stored update 27850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.554489
Actual update 27900 of 50000, Stored update 27900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.414813
Actual update 27950 of 50000, Stored update 27950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.935147
Actual update 28000 of 50000, Stored update 28000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.346114
Actual update 28050 of 50000, Stored update 28050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.805814
Actual update 28100 of 50000, Stored update 28100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.764664
Actual update 28150 of 50000, Stored update 28150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.813336
Actual update 28200 of 50000, Stored update 28200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.769187
Actual update 28250 of 50000, Stored update 28250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.510828
Actual update 28300 of 50000, Stored update 28300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.029206
Actual update 28350 of 50000, Stored update 28350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.802691
Actual update 28400 of 50000, Stored update 28400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.071529
Actual update 28450 of 50000, Stored update 28450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.665519
Actual update 28500 of 50000, Stored update 28500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.411053
Actual update 28550 of 50000, Stored update 28550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.653216
Actual update 28600 of 50000, Stored update 28600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.146515
Actual update 28650 of 50000, Stored update 28650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.257458
Actual update 28700 of 50000, Stored update 28700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.937669
Actual update 28750 of 50000, Stored update 28750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.548397
Actual update 28800 of 50000, Stored update 28800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.056701
Actual update 28850 of 50000, Stored update 28850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.139548
Actual update 28900 of 50000, Stored update 28900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.147478
Actual update 28950 of 50000, Stored update 28950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.134028
Actual update 29000 of 50000, Stored update 29000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.749669
Actual update 29050 of 50000, Stored update 29050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.123351
Actual update 29100 of 50000, Stored update 29100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.856268
Actual update 29150 of 50000, Stored update 29150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.898641
Actual update 29200 of 50000, Stored update 29200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.996472
Actual update 29250 of 50000, Stored update 29250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.148173
Actual update 29300 of 50000, Stored update 29300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.375930
Actual update 29350 of 50000, Stored update 29350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.853902
Actual update 29400 of 50000, Stored update 29400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.588604
Actual update 29450 of 50000, Stored update 29450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.502629
Actual update 29500 of 50000, Stored update 29500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.749746
Actual update 29550 of 50000, Stored update 29550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.319046
Actual update 29600 of 50000, Stored update 29600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.711124
Actual update 29650 of 50000, Stored update 29650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.954639
Actual update 29700 of 50000, Stored update 29700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.861244
Actual update 29750 of 50000, Stored update 29750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.119685
Actual update 29800 of 50000, Stored update 29800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.716132
Actual update 29850 of 50000, Stored update 29850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.523627
Actual update 29900 of 50000, Stored update 29900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.351264
Actual update 29950 of 50000, Stored update 29950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.567440
Actual update 30000 of 50000, Stored update 30000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.831291
Actual update 30050 of 50000, Stored update 30050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.340841
Actual update 30100 of 50000, Stored update 30100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.226640
Actual update 30150 of 50000, Stored update 30150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.346109
Actual update 30200 of 50000, Stored update 30200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.991773
Actual update 30250 of 50000, Stored update 30250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.297210
Actual update 30300 of 50000, Stored update 30300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.235629
Actual update 30350 of 50000, Stored update 30350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.687917
Actual update 30400 of 50000, Stored update 30400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.999671
Actual update 30450 of 50000, Stored update 30450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.998663
Actual update 30500 of 50000, Stored update 30500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.433270
Actual update 30550 of 50000, Stored update 30550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.411153
Actual update 30600 of 50000, Stored update 30600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.047905
Actual update 30650 of 50000, Stored update 30650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.729264
Actual update 30700 of 50000, Stored update 30700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.209642
Actual update 30750 of 50000, Stored update 30750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.803132
Actual update 30800 of 50000, Stored update 30800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.106083
Actual update 30850 of 50000, Stored update 30850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.118003
Actual update 30900 of 50000, Stored update 30900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.227303
Actual update 30950 of 50000, Stored update 30950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.286069
Actual update 31000 of 50000, Stored update 31000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.163870
Actual update 31050 of 50000, Stored update 31050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.084839
Actual update 31100 of 50000, Stored update 31100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.511969
Actual update 31150 of 50000, Stored update 31150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.921972
Actual update 31200 of 50000, Stored update 31200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.497910
Actual update 31250 of 50000, Stored update 31250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.670650
Actual update 31300 of 50000, Stored update 31300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.149230
Actual update 31350 of 50000, Stored update 31350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.497726
Actual update 31400 of 50000, Stored update 31400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.224240
Actual update 31450 of 50000, Stored update 31450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.457736
Actual update 31500 of 50000, Stored update 31500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.432817
Actual update 31550 of 50000, Stored update 31550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.586817
Actual update 31600 of 50000, Stored update 31600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.547910
Actual update 31650 of 50000, Stored update 31650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.030076
Actual update 31700 of 50000, Stored update 31700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.901795
Actual update 31750 of 50000, Stored update 31750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.433508
Actual update 31800 of 50000, Stored update 31800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 303.792165
Actual update 31850 of 50000, Stored update 31850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.540997
Actual update 31900 of 50000, Stored update 31900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.715548
Actual update 31950 of 50000, Stored update 31950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.932067
Actual update 32000 of 50000, Stored update 32000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.436391
Actual update 32050 of 50000, Stored update 32050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.005255
Actual update 32100 of 50000, Stored update 32100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.786351
Actual update 32150 of 50000, Stored update 32150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.466408
Actual update 32200 of 50000, Stored update 32200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.492185
Actual update 32250 of 50000, Stored update 32250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.676220
Actual update 32300 of 50000, Stored update 32300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.573218
Actual update 32350 of 50000, Stored update 32350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.056021
Actual update 32400 of 50000, Stored update 32400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.117968
Actual update 32450 of 50000, Stored update 32450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.752293
Actual update 32500 of 50000, Stored update 32500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.963005
Actual update 32550 of 50000, Stored update 32550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.266174
Actual update 32600 of 50000, Stored update 32600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.546968
Actual update 32650 of 50000, Stored update 32650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.237494
Actual update 32700 of 50000, Stored update 32700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.637810
Actual update 32750 of 50000, Stored update 32750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.247070
Actual update 32800 of 50000, Stored update 32800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.599862
Actual update 32850 of 50000, Stored update 32850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.250989
Actual update 32900 of 50000, Stored update 32900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.071025
Actual update 32950 of 50000, Stored update 32950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.694992
Actual update 33000 of 50000, Stored update 33000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.327241
Actual update 33050 of 50000, Stored update 33050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.857814
Actual update 33100 of 50000, Stored update 33100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.159517
Actual update 33150 of 50000, Stored update 33150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.682319
Actual update 33200 of 50000, Stored update 33200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.575955
Actual update 33250 of 50000, Stored update 33250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.543072
Actual update 33300 of 50000, Stored update 33300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.125691
Actual update 33350 of 50000, Stored update 33350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.828990
Actual update 33400 of 50000, Stored update 33400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.421194
Actual update 33450 of 50000, Stored update 33450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.069004
Actual update 33500 of 50000, Stored update 33500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.797042
Actual update 33550 of 50000, Stored update 33550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.553011
Actual update 33600 of 50000, Stored update 33600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.540471
Actual update 33650 of 50000, Stored update 33650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.089027
Actual update 33700 of 50000, Stored update 33700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.701681
Actual update 33750 of 50000, Stored update 33750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.610807
Actual update 33800 of 50000, Stored update 33800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.115779
Actual update 33850 of 50000, Stored update 33850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.011284
Actual update 33900 of 50000, Stored update 33900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.606744
Actual update 33950 of 50000, Stored update 33950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.825445
Actual update 34000 of 50000, Stored update 34000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.353759
Actual update 34050 of 50000, Stored update 34050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.131090
Actual update 34100 of 50000, Stored update 34100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.398924
Actual update 34150 of 50000, Stored update 34150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.384678
Actual update 34200 of 50000, Stored update 34200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.267831
Actual update 34250 of 50000, Stored update 34250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.057370
Actual update 34300 of 50000, Stored update 34300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.973562
Actual update 34350 of 50000, Stored update 34350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.243774
Actual update 34400 of 50000, Stored update 34400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.301894
Actual update 34450 of 50000, Stored update 34450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.076374
Actual update 34500 of 50000, Stored update 34500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.651294
Actual update 34550 of 50000, Stored update 34550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.626909
Actual update 34600 of 50000, Stored update 34600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.898143
Actual update 34650 of 50000, Stored update 34650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.717104
Actual update 34700 of 50000, Stored update 34700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.263563
Actual update 34750 of 50000, Stored update 34750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.941431
Actual update 34800 of 50000, Stored update 34800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.127382
Actual update 34850 of 50000, Stored update 34850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.344846
Actual update 34900 of 50000, Stored update 34900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.817307
Actual update 34950 of 50000, Stored update 34950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.703932
Actual update 35000 of 50000, Stored update 35000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.364962
Actual update 35050 of 50000, Stored update 35050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.829015
Actual update 35100 of 50000, Stored update 35100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.518117
Actual update 35150 of 50000, Stored update 35150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.705184
Actual update 35200 of 50000, Stored update 35200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 248.736615
Actual update 35250 of 50000, Stored update 35250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.491681
Actual update 35300 of 50000, Stored update 35300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.333003
Actual update 35350 of 50000, Stored update 35350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.740480
Actual update 35400 of 50000, Stored update 35400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.995957
Actual update 35450 of 50000, Stored update 35450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.378417
Actual update 35500 of 50000, Stored update 35500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.823189
Actual update 35550 of 50000, Stored update 35550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.241473
Actual update 35600 of 50000, Stored update 35600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.899913
Actual update 35650 of 50000, Stored update 35650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.188050
Actual update 35700 of 50000, Stored update 35700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.637118
Actual update 35750 of 50000, Stored update 35750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.926678
Actual update 35800 of 50000, Stored update 35800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.622417
Actual update 35850 of 50000, Stored update 35850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.362971
Actual update 35900 of 50000, Stored update 35900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.886836
Actual update 35950 of 50000, Stored update 35950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.202055
Actual update 36000 of 50000, Stored update 36000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.200341
Actual update 36050 of 50000, Stored update 36050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.674898
Actual update 36100 of 50000, Stored update 36100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.486457
Actual update 36150 of 50000, Stored update 36150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.358231
Actual update 36200 of 50000, Stored update 36200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.320435
Actual update 36250 of 50000, Stored update 36250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.575795
Actual update 36300 of 50000, Stored update 36300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 302.097039
Actual update 36350 of 50000, Stored update 36350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.625031
Actual update 36400 of 50000, Stored update 36400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.388294
Actual update 36450 of 50000, Stored update 36450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.027927
Actual update 36500 of 50000, Stored update 36500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.543899
Actual update 36550 of 50000, Stored update 36550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.817445
Actual update 36600 of 50000, Stored update 36600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.470888
Actual update 36650 of 50000, Stored update 36650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.678285
Actual update 36700 of 50000, Stored update 36700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.328926
Actual update 36750 of 50000, Stored update 36750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.943633
Actual update 36800 of 50000, Stored update 36800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.411645
Actual update 36850 of 50000, Stored update 36850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.338932
Actual update 36900 of 50000, Stored update 36900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.922570
Actual update 36950 of 50000, Stored update 36950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.523523
Actual update 37000 of 50000, Stored update 37000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.352802
Actual update 37050 of 50000, Stored update 37050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.966723
Actual update 37100 of 50000, Stored update 37100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.351578
Actual update 37150 of 50000, Stored update 37150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.333176
Actual update 37200 of 50000, Stored update 37200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.209297
Actual update 37250 of 50000, Stored update 37250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.869945
Actual update 37300 of 50000, Stored update 37300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.825904
Actual update 37350 of 50000, Stored update 37350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.972836
Actual update 37400 of 50000, Stored update 37400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.710711
Actual update 37450 of 50000, Stored update 37450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.362564
Actual update 37500 of 50000, Stored update 37500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.727938
Actual update 37550 of 50000, Stored update 37550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.502997
Actual update 37600 of 50000, Stored update 37600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.283967
Actual update 37650 of 50000, Stored update 37650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.678709
Actual update 37700 of 50000, Stored update 37700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.208083
Actual update 37750 of 50000, Stored update 37750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.484962
Actual update 37800 of 50000, Stored update 37800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.931725
Actual update 37850 of 50000, Stored update 37850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.170515
Actual update 37900 of 50000, Stored update 37900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.671528
Actual update 37950 of 50000, Stored update 37950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.288470
Actual update 38000 of 50000, Stored update 38000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.104226
Actual update 38050 of 50000, Stored update 38050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.584009
Actual update 38100 of 50000, Stored update 38100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.690703
Actual update 38150 of 50000, Stored update 38150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.893913
Actual update 38200 of 50000, Stored update 38200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.635448
Actual update 38250 of 50000, Stored update 38250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.967153
Actual update 38300 of 50000, Stored update 38300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.218681
Actual update 38350 of 50000, Stored update 38350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.848630
Actual update 38400 of 50000, Stored update 38400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.856180
Actual update 38450 of 50000, Stored update 38450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.990941
Actual update 38500 of 50000, Stored update 38500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.972762
Actual update 38550 of 50000, Stored update 38550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.585356
Actual update 38600 of 50000, Stored update 38600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.051623
Actual update 38650 of 50000, Stored update 38650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.447187
Actual update 38700 of 50000, Stored update 38700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.579275
Actual update 38750 of 50000, Stored update 38750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.578700
Actual update 38800 of 50000, Stored update 38800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.888432
Actual update 38850 of 50000, Stored update 38850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.565536
Actual update 38900 of 50000, Stored update 38900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.828998
Actual update 38950 of 50000, Stored update 38950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.526099
Actual update 39000 of 50000, Stored update 39000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.070860
Actual update 39050 of 50000, Stored update 39050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.938863
Actual update 39100 of 50000, Stored update 39100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.413995
Actual update 39150 of 50000, Stored update 39150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.270066
Actual update 39200 of 50000, Stored update 39200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.447849
Actual update 39250 of 50000, Stored update 39250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.409179
Actual update 39300 of 50000, Stored update 39300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.809385
Actual update 39350 of 50000, Stored update 39350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 300.939935
Actual update 39400 of 50000, Stored update 39400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.807643
Actual update 39450 of 50000, Stored update 39450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.170438
Actual update 39500 of 50000, Stored update 39500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.480184
Actual update 39550 of 50000, Stored update 39550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.923183
Actual update 39600 of 50000, Stored update 39600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.024938
Actual update 39650 of 50000, Stored update 39650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.369341
Actual update 39700 of 50000, Stored update 39700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.280889
Actual update 39750 of 50000, Stored update 39750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.275710
Actual update 39800 of 50000, Stored update 39800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.379844
Actual update 39850 of 50000, Stored update 39850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.269156
Actual update 39900 of 50000, Stored update 39900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.287759
Actual update 39950 of 50000, Stored update 39950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.407636
Actual update 40000 of 50000, Stored update 40000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.620756
Actual update 40050 of 50000, Stored update 40050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.579543
Actual update 40100 of 50000, Stored update 40100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.591690
Actual update 40150 of 50000, Stored update 40150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.908603
Actual update 40200 of 50000, Stored update 40200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.531970
Actual update 40250 of 50000, Stored update 40250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.921722
Actual update 40300 of 50000, Stored update 40300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.464067
Actual update 40350 of 50000, Stored update 40350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.987503
Actual update 40400 of 50000, Stored update 40400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.733193
Actual update 40450 of 50000, Stored update 40450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.803846
Actual update 40500 of 50000, Stored update 40500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.993180
Actual update 40550 of 50000, Stored update 40550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.180860
Actual update 40600 of 50000, Stored update 40600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.728518
Actual update 40650 of 50000, Stored update 40650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.965003
Actual update 40700 of 50000, Stored update 40700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.720193
Actual update 40750 of 50000, Stored update 40750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.446685
Actual update 40800 of 50000, Stored update 40800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.664134
Actual update 40850 of 50000, Stored update 40850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.542982
Actual update 40900 of 50000, Stored update 40900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.975496
Actual update 40950 of 50000, Stored update 40950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.225886
Actual update 41000 of 50000, Stored update 41000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.856242
Actual update 41050 of 50000, Stored update 41050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.534725
Actual update 41100 of 50000, Stored update 41100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.425517
Actual update 41150 of 50000, Stored update 41150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.618006
Actual update 41200 of 50000, Stored update 41200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.553236
Actual update 41250 of 50000, Stored update 41250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.273635
Actual update 41300 of 50000, Stored update 41300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.962406
Actual update 41350 of 50000, Stored update 41350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.492694
Actual update 41400 of 50000, Stored update 41400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.473796
Actual update 41450 of 50000, Stored update 41450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.029115
Actual update 41500 of 50000, Stored update 41500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.782195
Actual update 41550 of 50000, Stored update 41550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.687995
Actual update 41600 of 50000, Stored update 41600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.797386
Actual update 41650 of 50000, Stored update 41650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.507506
Actual update 41700 of 50000, Stored update 41700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.109610
Actual update 41750 of 50000, Stored update 41750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.487885
Actual update 41800 of 50000, Stored update 41800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.010840
Actual update 41850 of 50000, Stored update 41850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.760450
Actual update 41900 of 50000, Stored update 41900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.621959
Actual update 41950 of 50000, Stored update 41950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.441798
Actual update 42000 of 50000, Stored update 42000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.658740
Actual update 42050 of 50000, Stored update 42050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.900916
Actual update 42100 of 50000, Stored update 42100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.829770
Actual update 42150 of 50000, Stored update 42150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.939011
Actual update 42200 of 50000, Stored update 42200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.488712
Actual update 42250 of 50000, Stored update 42250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.666996
Actual update 42300 of 50000, Stored update 42300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.741291
Actual update 42350 of 50000, Stored update 42350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.681271
Actual update 42400 of 50000, Stored update 42400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.650449
Actual update 42450 of 50000, Stored update 42450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.690065
Actual update 42500 of 50000, Stored update 42500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.551336
Actual update 42550 of 50000, Stored update 42550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.874357
Actual update 42600 of 50000, Stored update 42600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.693225
Actual update 42650 of 50000, Stored update 42650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.493472
Actual update 42700 of 50000, Stored update 42700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.326945
Actual update 42750 of 50000, Stored update 42750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.915282
Actual update 42800 of 50000, Stored update 42800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.898543
Actual update 42850 of 50000, Stored update 42850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.693367
Actual update 42900 of 50000, Stored update 42900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.475415
Actual update 42950 of 50000, Stored update 42950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.713849
Actual update 43000 of 50000, Stored update 43000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.021287
Actual update 43050 of 50000, Stored update 43050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.899317
Actual update 43100 of 50000, Stored update 43100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.283621
Actual update 43150 of 50000, Stored update 43150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.728362
Actual update 43200 of 50000, Stored update 43200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.192831
Actual update 43250 of 50000, Stored update 43250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.710300
Actual update 43300 of 50000, Stored update 43300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.677580
Actual update 43350 of 50000, Stored update 43350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.139981
Actual update 43400 of 50000, Stored update 43400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.653036
Actual update 43450 of 50000, Stored update 43450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.355746
Actual update 43500 of 50000, Stored update 43500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.263440
Actual update 43550 of 50000, Stored update 43550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.045853
Actual update 43600 of 50000, Stored update 43600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.765548
Actual update 43650 of 50000, Stored update 43650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.103069
Actual update 43700 of 50000, Stored update 43700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.270372
Actual update 43750 of 50000, Stored update 43750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.783694
Actual update 43800 of 50000, Stored update 43800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.384933
Actual update 43850 of 50000, Stored update 43850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.967724
Actual update 43900 of 50000, Stored update 43900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.828081
Actual update 43950 of 50000, Stored update 43950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.822254
Actual update 44000 of 50000, Stored update 44000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.072624
Actual update 44050 of 50000, Stored update 44050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.945693
Actual update 44100 of 50000, Stored update 44100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.336121
Actual update 44150 of 50000, Stored update 44150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.698912
Actual update 44200 of 50000, Stored update 44200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.483128
Actual update 44250 of 50000, Stored update 44250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.735125
Actual update 44300 of 50000, Stored update 44300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.429899
Actual update 44350 of 50000, Stored update 44350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.409298
Actual update 44400 of 50000, Stored update 44400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.607337
Actual update 44450 of 50000, Stored update 44450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.600591
Actual update 44500 of 50000, Stored update 44500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.968879
Actual update 44550 of 50000, Stored update 44550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.826699
Actual update 44600 of 50000, Stored update 44600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.058760
Actual update 44650 of 50000, Stored update 44650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.327075
Actual update 44700 of 50000, Stored update 44700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 248.807361
Actual update 44750 of 50000, Stored update 44750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.608928
Actual update 44800 of 50000, Stored update 44800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.248584
Actual update 44850 of 50000, Stored update 44850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.014022
Actual update 44900 of 50000, Stored update 44900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.312870
Actual update 44950 of 50000, Stored update 44950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.696765
Actual update 45000 of 50000, Stored update 45000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.584941
Actual update 45050 of 50000, Stored update 45050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.469375
Actual update 45100 of 50000, Stored update 45100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.492426
Actual update 45150 of 50000, Stored update 45150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.170381
Actual update 45200 of 50000, Stored update 45200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.214519
Actual update 45250 of 50000, Stored update 45250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.976356
Actual update 45300 of 50000, Stored update 45300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.934407
Actual update 45350 of 50000, Stored update 45350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.578174
Actual update 45400 of 50000, Stored update 45400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.984659
Actual update 45450 of 50000, Stored update 45450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.196423
Actual update 45500 of 50000, Stored update 45500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.818221
Actual update 45550 of 50000, Stored update 45550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.615481
Actual update 45600 of 50000, Stored update 45600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.455001
Actual update 45650 of 50000, Stored update 45650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.911538
Actual update 45700 of 50000, Stored update 45700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.441731
Actual update 45750 of 50000, Stored update 45750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.484365
Actual update 45800 of 50000, Stored update 45800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.676901
Actual update 45850 of 50000, Stored update 45850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.716128
Actual update 45900 of 50000, Stored update 45900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.598176
Actual update 45950 of 50000, Stored update 45950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.827940
Actual update 46000 of 50000, Stored update 46000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.131831
Actual update 46050 of 50000, Stored update 46050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.144676
Actual update 46100 of 50000, Stored update 46100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.415016
Actual update 46150 of 50000, Stored update 46150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.528821
Actual update 46200 of 50000, Stored update 46200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.913851
Actual update 46250 of 50000, Stored update 46250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.859106
Actual update 46300 of 50000, Stored update 46300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.274985
Actual update 46350 of 50000, Stored update 46350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.024985
Actual update 46400 of 50000, Stored update 46400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.977670
Actual update 46450 of 50000, Stored update 46450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.159680
Actual update 46500 of 50000, Stored update 46500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.308702
Actual update 46550 of 50000, Stored update 46550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.741736
Actual update 46600 of 50000, Stored update 46600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.310146
Actual update 46650 of 50000, Stored update 46650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.771551
Actual update 46700 of 50000, Stored update 46700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.140819
Actual update 46750 of 50000, Stored update 46750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.223741
Actual update 46800 of 50000, Stored update 46800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.658384
Actual update 46850 of 50000, Stored update 46850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.893239
Actual update 46900 of 50000, Stored update 46900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.357758
Actual update 46950 of 50000, Stored update 46950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.751596
Actual update 47000 of 50000, Stored update 47000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.597425
Actual update 47050 of 50000, Stored update 47050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.512540
Actual update 47100 of 50000, Stored update 47100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.807035
Actual update 47150 of 50000, Stored update 47150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.025215
Actual update 47200 of 50000, Stored update 47200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.336191
Actual update 47250 of 50000, Stored update 47250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.725688
Actual update 47300 of 50000, Stored update 47300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.800429
Actual update 47350 of 50000, Stored update 47350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.848229
Actual update 47400 of 50000, Stored update 47400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.878230
Actual update 47450 of 50000, Stored update 47450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.581729
Actual update 47500 of 50000, Stored update 47500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.981786
Actual update 47550 of 50000, Stored update 47550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.739551
Actual update 47600 of 50000, Stored update 47600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.039901
Actual update 47650 of 50000, Stored update 47650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.667419
Actual update 47700 of 50000, Stored update 47700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.606723
Actual update 47750 of 50000, Stored update 47750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.454962
Actual update 47800 of 50000, Stored update 47800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.211238
Actual update 47850 of 50000, Stored update 47850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.632285
Actual update 47900 of 50000, Stored update 47900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.946175
Actual update 47950 of 50000, Stored update 47950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.452494
Actual update 48000 of 50000, Stored update 48000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.995715
Actual update 48050 of 50000, Stored update 48050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.052391
Actual update 48100 of 50000, Stored update 48100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.016330
Actual update 48150 of 50000, Stored update 48150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.256219
Actual update 48200 of 50000, Stored update 48200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.767980
Actual update 48250 of 50000, Stored update 48250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.805269
Actual update 48300 of 50000, Stored update 48300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.576634
Actual update 48350 of 50000, Stored update 48350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.557569
Actual update 48400 of 50000, Stored update 48400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.626171
Actual update 48450 of 50000, Stored update 48450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.101252
Actual update 48500 of 50000, Stored update 48500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 248.340995
Actual update 48550 of 50000, Stored update 48550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.704003
Actual update 48600 of 50000, Stored update 48600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.206138
Actual update 48650 of 50000, Stored update 48650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.182487
Actual update 48700 of 50000, Stored update 48700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 246.625372
Actual update 48750 of 50000, Stored update 48750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.665757
Actual update 48800 of 50000, Stored update 48800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.577541
Actual update 48850 of 50000, Stored update 48850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.787754
Actual update 48900 of 50000, Stored update 48900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.823204
Actual update 48950 of 50000, Stored update 48950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.571847
Actual update 49000 of 50000, Stored update 49000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.145294
Actual update 49050 of 50000, Stored update 49050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.998964
Actual update 49100 of 50000, Stored update 49100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.105008
Actual update 49150 of 50000, Stored update 49150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.717304
Actual update 49200 of 50000, Stored update 49200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 297.154480
Actual update 49250 of 50000, Stored update 49250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.022610
Actual update 49300 of 50000, Stored update 49300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.811961
Actual update 49350 of 50000, Stored update 49350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.860950
Actual update 49400 of 50000, Stored update 49400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.161875
Actual update 49450 of 50000, Stored update 49450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.706476
Actual update 49500 of 50000, Stored update 49500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.455141
Actual update 49550 of 50000, Stored update 49550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.781979
Actual update 49600 of 50000, Stored update 49600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.577870
Actual update 49650 of 50000, Stored update 49650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.496974
Actual update 49700 of 50000, Stored update 49700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.484437
Actual update 49750 of 50000, Stored update 49750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.289621
Actual update 49800 of 50000, Stored update 49800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.580155
Actual update 49850 of 50000, Stored update 49850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.902186
Actual update 49900 of 50000, Stored update 49900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.038220
Actual update 49950 of 50000, Stored update 49950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.232466
Actual update 50000 of 50000, Stored update 50000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.482189
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          50000
Average =          270.14
S.D.    =          9.8326
S.E.M.  =        0.043973

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.15)  multilevel model (Poisson) 
        N min     mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
neigh1 29   1 1.931034   5         29            1      1.931034            5
area   56   1 1.000000   1         56            1      1.000000            1
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Cross-classified              Elapsed time : 2.92s 
Number of obs:  56 (from total 56)          Number of iter.: 50000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
270.138    237.399    32.739     302.877    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
log(obs) ~ 1 + perc_aff + offset(offs) + (1 | neigh1) + (1 | 
    area)
Level 3: neigh1     Level 2: area     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
               Coef.   Std. Err.      z    Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
Intercept   -0.29240     0.20091  -1.46      0.1456         -0.66613     0.12951   390 
perc_aff     0.04851     0.01429   3.39   0.0006903  ***     0.01938     0.07571   570 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the neigh1 level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   1.20871     0.46616      0.49452     2.30485   1119 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the area level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.05242     0.05517      0.00096     0.19424   240 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000     0.00000      1.00000     1.00000   50000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> # 17.5 Other spatial models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .255
> 
> # 17.6 Fitting a CAR model in MLwiN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .255
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mymodel <- runMLwiN(log(obs) ~ 0 + perc_aff + offset(offs) + (1 | area) + (0 | area), D = "Poisson", estoptions = list(car = list(list(carvar = list("neigh1",
+   "neigh2", "neigh3", "neigh4", "neigh5", "neigh6", "neigh7", "neigh8", "neigh9", "neigh10", "neigh11"), weights = list("wcar1",
+   "wcar2", "wcar3", "wcar4", "wcar5", "wcar6", "wcar7", "wcar8", "wcar9", "wcar10", "wcar11")), NA, NA), EstM = 1,
+   mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000)), BUGO = c(version = 4, n.chains = 1, OpenBugs = TRUE), data = lips1)
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0
Execution completed

Loading required namespace: R2OpenBUGS
> 
> summary(mymodel)

Iterations = 501:50500
Thinning interval = 1 
Number of chains = 1 
Sample size per chain = 50000 

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable,
   plus standard error of the mean:

             Mean      SD  Naive SE Time-series SE
beta[1]    0.0351 0.01284 5.743e-05      0.0001769
carmean   -0.2060 0.11989 5.362e-04      0.0014994
deviance 268.3014 9.44642 4.225e-02      0.0660435

2. Quantiles for each variable:

              2.5%       25%      50%       75%     97.5%
beta[1]    0.00913   0.02672   0.0353   0.04381   0.05964
carmean   -0.44060  -0.28700  -0.2067  -0.12540   0.03030
deviance 251.30000 261.60000 267.9000 274.40000 288.00000

> # 17.7 Including exchangeable random effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
> 
> # R will remove duplicate terms in the formula, so create a copy of area with a different name
> lips1$areahigh <- lips1$area
> 
> (mymodel <- runMLwiN(log(obs) ~ 0 + perc_aff + offset(offs) + (1 | area) + (1 | areahigh), D = "Poisson", estoptions = list(car = list(list(carvar = list("neigh1",
+   "neigh2", "neigh3", "neigh4", "neigh5", "neigh6", "neigh7", "neigh8", "neigh9", "neigh10", "neigh11"), weights = list("wcar1",
+   "wcar2", "wcar3", "wcar4", "wcar5", "wcar6", "wcar7", "wcar8", "wcar9", "wcar10", "wcar11")), NA, NA), EstM = 1,
+   mcmcMeth = list(iterations = 50000)), data = lips1))
MLwiN is running, please wait......
/nogui option ignored
ECHO    0


Echoing is ON
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
MAXI 2
STAR
iteration 0
iteration 1

Convergence not achieved
TOLE 2
MAXI 20
BATC 1

Batch mode is ON
NEXT
iteration 2
iteration 3
iteration 4

Convergence achieved
ECHO 0

Echoing is ON
MCMC   0 500 1 5.8 50 10   2 2 2 1 1 3
Setting up XC/MM data structures - may take a while
Setting up XC/MM data structures - may take a while
RUNNING ADAPTIVE PROCEDURE AND BURNING IN...
Adapting for 100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 249.701695
Adapting for 200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 254.873537
Adapting for 300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 261.111120
Adapting for 400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 264.260924
Adapting for 500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 249.624844
Adapting for 600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 271.785477
Adapting for 700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 260.092928
Adapting for 800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 275.746614
Adapting for 900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 275.962011
Adapting for 1000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 278.001760
Adapting for 1100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 262.667836
Adapting for 1200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 261.550092
Adapting for 1300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 267.819416
Adapting for 1400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 263.195237
Adapting for 1500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 262.517498
Adapting for 1600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 266.652553
Adapting for 1700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 276.206598
Adapting for 1800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 251.679193
Adapting for 1900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 272.413465
Adapting for 2000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 275.396659
Adapting for 2100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 268.987746
Adapting for 2200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 275.585501
Adapting for 2300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 276.144370
Adapting for 2400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 281.726322
Adapting for 2500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 287.967841
Adapting for 2600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 276.502670
Adapting for 2700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 283.756777
Adapting for 2800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 256.811393
Adapting for 2900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 267.451663
Adapting for 3000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 265.852693
Adapting for 3100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 249.089932
Adapting for 3200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 262.793374
Adapting for 3300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 269.987169
Adapting for 3400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 283.152143
Adapting for 3500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 283.528666
Adapting for 3600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 263.059842
Adapting for 3700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 272.625289
Adapting for 3800 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 265.966775
Adapting for 3900 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 259.313706
Adapting for 4000 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 265.003125
Adapting for 4100 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 252.913562
Adapting for 4200 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 246.759932
Adapting for 4300 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 262.009416
Adapting for 4400 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 264.205415
Adapting for 4500 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 264.522009
Adapting for 4600 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 274.020829
Adapting for 4700 iterations (Maximum 5000)
-2 * Loglike = 261.320346
Adapting finished and took 4800 iterations
Adapting took 4800 iterations
Burning in for 50 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 284.326454
Burning in for 100 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 267.479935
Burning in for 150 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 262.882569
Burning in for 200 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 259.924002
Burning in for 250 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 256.720877
Burning in for 300 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 278.568922
Burning in for 350 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 259.209690
Burning in for 400 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 266.813902
Burning in for 450 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 276.679523
Burning in for 500 iterations out of 500
-2 * Loglike = 259.257386

ERAS  c1090 c1091

MCMC 1 50000 1 c1090 c1091 c1003 c1004 1 3
Actual update 50 of 50000, Stored update 50 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.809218
Actual update 100 of 50000, Stored update 100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.405234
Actual update 150 of 50000, Stored update 150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.998313
Actual update 200 of 50000, Stored update 200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.502042
Actual update 250 of 50000, Stored update 250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.467772
Actual update 300 of 50000, Stored update 300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 247.312618
Actual update 350 of 50000, Stored update 350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.697526
Actual update 400 of 50000, Stored update 400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.378571
Actual update 450 of 50000, Stored update 450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.758280
Actual update 500 of 50000, Stored update 500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.642539
Actual update 550 of 50000, Stored update 550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.649439
Actual update 600 of 50000, Stored update 600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.996183
Actual update 650 of 50000, Stored update 650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.824252
Actual update 700 of 50000, Stored update 700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.989113
Actual update 750 of 50000, Stored update 750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.197922
Actual update 800 of 50000, Stored update 800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.417168
Actual update 850 of 50000, Stored update 850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.276252
Actual update 900 of 50000, Stored update 900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.464609
Actual update 950 of 50000, Stored update 950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.515154
Actual update 1000 of 50000, Stored update 1000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.612285
Actual update 1050 of 50000, Stored update 1050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.089140
Actual update 1100 of 50000, Stored update 1100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.446444
Actual update 1150 of 50000, Stored update 1150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.318786
Actual update 1200 of 50000, Stored update 1200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.625528
Actual update 1250 of 50000, Stored update 1250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.348457
Actual update 1300 of 50000, Stored update 1300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.281260
Actual update 1350 of 50000, Stored update 1350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.336389
Actual update 1400 of 50000, Stored update 1400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.010898
Actual update 1450 of 50000, Stored update 1450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.567628
Actual update 1500 of 50000, Stored update 1500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.631725
Actual update 1550 of 50000, Stored update 1550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.309864
Actual update 1600 of 50000, Stored update 1600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.629093
Actual update 1650 of 50000, Stored update 1650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.208115
Actual update 1700 of 50000, Stored update 1700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.028816
Actual update 1750 of 50000, Stored update 1750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.418948
Actual update 1800 of 50000, Stored update 1800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.657406
Actual update 1850 of 50000, Stored update 1850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.232985
Actual update 1900 of 50000, Stored update 1900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.185681
Actual update 1950 of 50000, Stored update 1950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.729935
Actual update 2000 of 50000, Stored update 2000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.654443
Actual update 2050 of 50000, Stored update 2050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.493904
Actual update 2100 of 50000, Stored update 2100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.032863
Actual update 2150 of 50000, Stored update 2150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.299070
Actual update 2200 of 50000, Stored update 2200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.092490
Actual update 2250 of 50000, Stored update 2250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.166393
Actual update 2300 of 50000, Stored update 2300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.533517
Actual update 2350 of 50000, Stored update 2350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.712418
Actual update 2400 of 50000, Stored update 2400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.356176
Actual update 2450 of 50000, Stored update 2450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.451164
Actual update 2500 of 50000, Stored update 2500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.787984
Actual update 2550 of 50000, Stored update 2550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.303141
Actual update 2600 of 50000, Stored update 2600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.873292
Actual update 2650 of 50000, Stored update 2650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.874146
Actual update 2700 of 50000, Stored update 2700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.755240
Actual update 2750 of 50000, Stored update 2750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.094062
Actual update 2800 of 50000, Stored update 2800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.239169
Actual update 2850 of 50000, Stored update 2850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.832384
Actual update 2900 of 50000, Stored update 2900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.617021
Actual update 2950 of 50000, Stored update 2950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.121134
Actual update 3000 of 50000, Stored update 3000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.054462
Actual update 3050 of 50000, Stored update 3050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.847524
Actual update 3100 of 50000, Stored update 3100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.070767
Actual update 3150 of 50000, Stored update 3150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.321525
Actual update 3200 of 50000, Stored update 3200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.497034
Actual update 3250 of 50000, Stored update 3250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.693381
Actual update 3300 of 50000, Stored update 3300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.582173
Actual update 3350 of 50000, Stored update 3350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.996821
Actual update 3400 of 50000, Stored update 3400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.146540
Actual update 3450 of 50000, Stored update 3450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.903438
Actual update 3500 of 50000, Stored update 3500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.969116
Actual update 3550 of 50000, Stored update 3550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.680671
Actual update 3600 of 50000, Stored update 3600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.676055
Actual update 3650 of 50000, Stored update 3650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.592257
Actual update 3700 of 50000, Stored update 3700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.038302
Actual update 3750 of 50000, Stored update 3750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.865680
Actual update 3800 of 50000, Stored update 3800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.333854
Actual update 3850 of 50000, Stored update 3850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.696845
Actual update 3900 of 50000, Stored update 3900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.842079
Actual update 3950 of 50000, Stored update 3950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.654321
Actual update 4000 of 50000, Stored update 4000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.975886
Actual update 4050 of 50000, Stored update 4050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.546985
Actual update 4100 of 50000, Stored update 4100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.951747
Actual update 4150 of 50000, Stored update 4150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.151578
Actual update 4200 of 50000, Stored update 4200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.985690
Actual update 4250 of 50000, Stored update 4250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.678093
Actual update 4300 of 50000, Stored update 4300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.775684
Actual update 4350 of 50000, Stored update 4350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.279694
Actual update 4400 of 50000, Stored update 4400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.472825
Actual update 4450 of 50000, Stored update 4450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.428419
Actual update 4500 of 50000, Stored update 4500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.631655
Actual update 4550 of 50000, Stored update 4550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.929096
Actual update 4600 of 50000, Stored update 4600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.247212
Actual update 4650 of 50000, Stored update 4650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.295190
Actual update 4700 of 50000, Stored update 4700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.443326
Actual update 4750 of 50000, Stored update 4750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.699023
Actual update 4800 of 50000, Stored update 4800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.275286
Actual update 4850 of 50000, Stored update 4850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.778988
Actual update 4900 of 50000, Stored update 4900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.404755
Actual update 4950 of 50000, Stored update 4950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.019867
Actual update 5000 of 50000, Stored update 5000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.653056
Actual update 5050 of 50000, Stored update 5050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.829992
Actual update 5100 of 50000, Stored update 5100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.504730
Actual update 5150 of 50000, Stored update 5150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.063536
Actual update 5200 of 50000, Stored update 5200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.497345
Actual update 5250 of 50000, Stored update 5250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.308725
Actual update 5300 of 50000, Stored update 5300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.475812
Actual update 5350 of 50000, Stored update 5350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.688425
Actual update 5400 of 50000, Stored update 5400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.528776
Actual update 5450 of 50000, Stored update 5450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.260439
Actual update 5500 of 50000, Stored update 5500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.573490
Actual update 5550 of 50000, Stored update 5550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.818464
Actual update 5600 of 50000, Stored update 5600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.273849
Actual update 5650 of 50000, Stored update 5650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.175068
Actual update 5700 of 50000, Stored update 5700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.982122
Actual update 5750 of 50000, Stored update 5750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.121426
Actual update 5800 of 50000, Stored update 5800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.096895
Actual update 5850 of 50000, Stored update 5850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.727036
Actual update 5900 of 50000, Stored update 5900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.182975
Actual update 5950 of 50000, Stored update 5950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.096966
Actual update 6000 of 50000, Stored update 6000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.782504
Actual update 6050 of 50000, Stored update 6050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.935636
Actual update 6100 of 50000, Stored update 6100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.400306
Actual update 6150 of 50000, Stored update 6150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.858644
Actual update 6200 of 50000, Stored update 6200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 238.482266
Actual update 6250 of 50000, Stored update 6250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.134447
Actual update 6300 of 50000, Stored update 6300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.456472
Actual update 6350 of 50000, Stored update 6350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.488507
Actual update 6400 of 50000, Stored update 6400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.641806
Actual update 6450 of 50000, Stored update 6450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.473013
Actual update 6500 of 50000, Stored update 6500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.497347
Actual update 6550 of 50000, Stored update 6550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.335256
Actual update 6600 of 50000, Stored update 6600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.461115
Actual update 6650 of 50000, Stored update 6650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.429757
Actual update 6700 of 50000, Stored update 6700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.639998
Actual update 6750 of 50000, Stored update 6750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.157638
Actual update 6800 of 50000, Stored update 6800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.345486
Actual update 6850 of 50000, Stored update 6850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.382793
Actual update 6900 of 50000, Stored update 6900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.875269
Actual update 6950 of 50000, Stored update 6950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.532832
Actual update 7000 of 50000, Stored update 7000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.542054
Actual update 7050 of 50000, Stored update 7050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.951315
Actual update 7100 of 50000, Stored update 7100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.649212
Actual update 7150 of 50000, Stored update 7150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.783842
Actual update 7200 of 50000, Stored update 7200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.648919
Actual update 7250 of 50000, Stored update 7250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.066336
Actual update 7300 of 50000, Stored update 7300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.713009
Actual update 7350 of 50000, Stored update 7350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 247.698652
Actual update 7400 of 50000, Stored update 7400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.748316
Actual update 7450 of 50000, Stored update 7450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.559598
Actual update 7500 of 50000, Stored update 7500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.096180
Actual update 7550 of 50000, Stored update 7550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.619570
Actual update 7600 of 50000, Stored update 7600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.720228
Actual update 7650 of 50000, Stored update 7650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.825613
Actual update 7700 of 50000, Stored update 7700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.820336
Actual update 7750 of 50000, Stored update 7750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.671531
Actual update 7800 of 50000, Stored update 7800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.461514
Actual update 7850 of 50000, Stored update 7850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.870638
Actual update 7900 of 50000, Stored update 7900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.737260
Actual update 7950 of 50000, Stored update 7950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.408065
Actual update 8000 of 50000, Stored update 8000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.630103
Actual update 8050 of 50000, Stored update 8050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.005169
Actual update 8100 of 50000, Stored update 8100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.671600
Actual update 8150 of 50000, Stored update 8150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.309837
Actual update 8200 of 50000, Stored update 8200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.366831
Actual update 8250 of 50000, Stored update 8250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.809186
Actual update 8300 of 50000, Stored update 8300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.040247
Actual update 8350 of 50000, Stored update 8350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.980415
Actual update 8400 of 50000, Stored update 8400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.285798
Actual update 8450 of 50000, Stored update 8450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.044719
Actual update 8500 of 50000, Stored update 8500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.279845
Actual update 8550 of 50000, Stored update 8550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.348459
Actual update 8600 of 50000, Stored update 8600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.215649
Actual update 8650 of 50000, Stored update 8650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.887864
Actual update 8700 of 50000, Stored update 8700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.692685
Actual update 8750 of 50000, Stored update 8750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.208768
Actual update 8800 of 50000, Stored update 8800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.802351
Actual update 8850 of 50000, Stored update 8850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.553367
Actual update 8900 of 50000, Stored update 8900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.474961
Actual update 8950 of 50000, Stored update 8950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.214875
Actual update 9000 of 50000, Stored update 9000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.471403
Actual update 9050 of 50000, Stored update 9050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.159055
Actual update 9100 of 50000, Stored update 9100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.559102
Actual update 9150 of 50000, Stored update 9150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.662664
Actual update 9200 of 50000, Stored update 9200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.347569
Actual update 9250 of 50000, Stored update 9250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.955670
Actual update 9300 of 50000, Stored update 9300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.235435
Actual update 9350 of 50000, Stored update 9350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.034078
Actual update 9400 of 50000, Stored update 9400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.533217
Actual update 9450 of 50000, Stored update 9450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.721024
Actual update 9500 of 50000, Stored update 9500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.457845
Actual update 9550 of 50000, Stored update 9550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.343919
Actual update 9600 of 50000, Stored update 9600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.684337
Actual update 9650 of 50000, Stored update 9650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.792491
Actual update 9700 of 50000, Stored update 9700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.643261
Actual update 9750 of 50000, Stored update 9750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.582013
Actual update 9800 of 50000, Stored update 9800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.396354
Actual update 9850 of 50000, Stored update 9850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.323026
Actual update 9900 of 50000, Stored update 9900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.474778
Actual update 9950 of 50000, Stored update 9950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.233253
Actual update 10000 of 50000, Stored update 10000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.657271
Actual update 10050 of 50000, Stored update 10050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.291822
Actual update 10100 of 50000, Stored update 10100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.918553
Actual update 10150 of 50000, Stored update 10150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.212307
Actual update 10200 of 50000, Stored update 10200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.751631
Actual update 10250 of 50000, Stored update 10250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.203879
Actual update 10300 of 50000, Stored update 10300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.496686
Actual update 10350 of 50000, Stored update 10350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.234264
Actual update 10400 of 50000, Stored update 10400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.536425
Actual update 10450 of 50000, Stored update 10450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.740637
Actual update 10500 of 50000, Stored update 10500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.616266
Actual update 10550 of 50000, Stored update 10550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.925477
Actual update 10600 of 50000, Stored update 10600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.194589
Actual update 10650 of 50000, Stored update 10650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.193909
Actual update 10700 of 50000, Stored update 10700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.269421
Actual update 10750 of 50000, Stored update 10750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.270324
Actual update 10800 of 50000, Stored update 10800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.637703
Actual update 10850 of 50000, Stored update 10850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.088408
Actual update 10900 of 50000, Stored update 10900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.902337
Actual update 10950 of 50000, Stored update 10950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.559777
Actual update 11000 of 50000, Stored update 11000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.154292
Actual update 11050 of 50000, Stored update 11050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.471802
Actual update 11100 of 50000, Stored update 11100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.642700
Actual update 11150 of 50000, Stored update 11150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.044825
Actual update 11200 of 50000, Stored update 11200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.236422
Actual update 11250 of 50000, Stored update 11250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.900776
Actual update 11300 of 50000, Stored update 11300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.872674
Actual update 11350 of 50000, Stored update 11350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.319931
Actual update 11400 of 50000, Stored update 11400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.614898
Actual update 11450 of 50000, Stored update 11450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.830637
Actual update 11500 of 50000, Stored update 11500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.666036
Actual update 11550 of 50000, Stored update 11550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.989496
Actual update 11600 of 50000, Stored update 11600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.146378
Actual update 11650 of 50000, Stored update 11650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.279261
Actual update 11700 of 50000, Stored update 11700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.569857
Actual update 11750 of 50000, Stored update 11750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.022219
Actual update 11800 of 50000, Stored update 11800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.568091
Actual update 11850 of 50000, Stored update 11850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.637245
Actual update 11900 of 50000, Stored update 11900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.588811
Actual update 11950 of 50000, Stored update 11950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.289248
Actual update 12000 of 50000, Stored update 12000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.156403
Actual update 12050 of 50000, Stored update 12050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.768473
Actual update 12100 of 50000, Stored update 12100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.431744
Actual update 12150 of 50000, Stored update 12150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.597327
Actual update 12200 of 50000, Stored update 12200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.488163
Actual update 12250 of 50000, Stored update 12250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.685205
Actual update 12300 of 50000, Stored update 12300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.594561
Actual update 12350 of 50000, Stored update 12350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.296247
Actual update 12400 of 50000, Stored update 12400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.385865
Actual update 12450 of 50000, Stored update 12450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.850434
Actual update 12500 of 50000, Stored update 12500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 245.762693
Actual update 12550 of 50000, Stored update 12550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.290631
Actual update 12600 of 50000, Stored update 12600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.578426
Actual update 12650 of 50000, Stored update 12650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.408385
Actual update 12700 of 50000, Stored update 12700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.642109
Actual update 12750 of 50000, Stored update 12750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.849742
Actual update 12800 of 50000, Stored update 12800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.237491
Actual update 12850 of 50000, Stored update 12850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.459053
Actual update 12900 of 50000, Stored update 12900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.171706
Actual update 12950 of 50000, Stored update 12950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.130068
Actual update 13000 of 50000, Stored update 13000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.808498
Actual update 13050 of 50000, Stored update 13050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.663843
Actual update 13100 of 50000, Stored update 13100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.857333
Actual update 13150 of 50000, Stored update 13150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.518638
Actual update 13200 of 50000, Stored update 13200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.145481
Actual update 13250 of 50000, Stored update 13250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.972797
Actual update 13300 of 50000, Stored update 13300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.196178
Actual update 13350 of 50000, Stored update 13350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 294.316501
Actual update 13400 of 50000, Stored update 13400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.646001
Actual update 13450 of 50000, Stored update 13450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.612449
Actual update 13500 of 50000, Stored update 13500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.629233
Actual update 13550 of 50000, Stored update 13550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.058893
Actual update 13600 of 50000, Stored update 13600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.330638
Actual update 13650 of 50000, Stored update 13650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.144898
Actual update 13700 of 50000, Stored update 13700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.859355
Actual update 13750 of 50000, Stored update 13750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.094083
Actual update 13800 of 50000, Stored update 13800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.725576
Actual update 13850 of 50000, Stored update 13850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.146770
Actual update 13900 of 50000, Stored update 13900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.238280
Actual update 13950 of 50000, Stored update 13950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.156801
Actual update 14000 of 50000, Stored update 14000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.322773
Actual update 14050 of 50000, Stored update 14050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.780755
Actual update 14100 of 50000, Stored update 14100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.336352
Actual update 14150 of 50000, Stored update 14150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.036256
Actual update 14200 of 50000, Stored update 14200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.352911
Actual update 14250 of 50000, Stored update 14250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.860359
Actual update 14300 of 50000, Stored update 14300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.100025
Actual update 14350 of 50000, Stored update 14350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.500008
Actual update 14400 of 50000, Stored update 14400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.064452
Actual update 14450 of 50000, Stored update 14450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.659697
Actual update 14500 of 50000, Stored update 14500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.299416
Actual update 14550 of 50000, Stored update 14550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.474726
Actual update 14600 of 50000, Stored update 14600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.037660
Actual update 14650 of 50000, Stored update 14650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.800579
Actual update 14700 of 50000, Stored update 14700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.783573
Actual update 14750 of 50000, Stored update 14750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.941253
Actual update 14800 of 50000, Stored update 14800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.056504
Actual update 14850 of 50000, Stored update 14850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.057784
Actual update 14900 of 50000, Stored update 14900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.451674
Actual update 14950 of 50000, Stored update 14950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.326987
Actual update 15000 of 50000, Stored update 15000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.284034
Actual update 15050 of 50000, Stored update 15050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.053324
Actual update 15100 of 50000, Stored update 15100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.782762
Actual update 15150 of 50000, Stored update 15150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.261624
Actual update 15200 of 50000, Stored update 15200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.221958
Actual update 15250 of 50000, Stored update 15250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.785843
Actual update 15300 of 50000, Stored update 15300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.088493
Actual update 15350 of 50000, Stored update 15350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.635980
Actual update 15400 of 50000, Stored update 15400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.810386
Actual update 15450 of 50000, Stored update 15450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.563086
Actual update 15500 of 50000, Stored update 15500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.280545
Actual update 15550 of 50000, Stored update 15550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.467478
Actual update 15600 of 50000, Stored update 15600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.062783
Actual update 15650 of 50000, Stored update 15650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.629372
Actual update 15700 of 50000, Stored update 15700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.058113
Actual update 15750 of 50000, Stored update 15750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.520917
Actual update 15800 of 50000, Stored update 15800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.176607
Actual update 15850 of 50000, Stored update 15850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.750383
Actual update 15900 of 50000, Stored update 15900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.702547
Actual update 15950 of 50000, Stored update 15950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.892408
Actual update 16000 of 50000, Stored update 16000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.230843
Actual update 16050 of 50000, Stored update 16050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.093783
Actual update 16100 of 50000, Stored update 16100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.292038
Actual update 16150 of 50000, Stored update 16150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.755491
Actual update 16200 of 50000, Stored update 16200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.245910
Actual update 16250 of 50000, Stored update 16250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.227215
Actual update 16300 of 50000, Stored update 16300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.248670
Actual update 16350 of 50000, Stored update 16350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.103735
Actual update 16400 of 50000, Stored update 16400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.765635
Actual update 16450 of 50000, Stored update 16450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.450438
Actual update 16500 of 50000, Stored update 16500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.731208
Actual update 16550 of 50000, Stored update 16550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.241457
Actual update 16600 of 50000, Stored update 16600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.998818
Actual update 16650 of 50000, Stored update 16650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.707936
Actual update 16700 of 50000, Stored update 16700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.805398
Actual update 16750 of 50000, Stored update 16750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.956584
Actual update 16800 of 50000, Stored update 16800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.433937
Actual update 16850 of 50000, Stored update 16850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.333390
Actual update 16900 of 50000, Stored update 16900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.876357
Actual update 16950 of 50000, Stored update 16950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.318618
Actual update 17000 of 50000, Stored update 17000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.974416
Actual update 17050 of 50000, Stored update 17050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.320806
Actual update 17100 of 50000, Stored update 17100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.751650
Actual update 17150 of 50000, Stored update 17150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.572590
Actual update 17200 of 50000, Stored update 17200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.471783
Actual update 17250 of 50000, Stored update 17250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.881100
Actual update 17300 of 50000, Stored update 17300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.972970
Actual update 17350 of 50000, Stored update 17350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.429463
Actual update 17400 of 50000, Stored update 17400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.686545
Actual update 17450 of 50000, Stored update 17450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.485917
Actual update 17500 of 50000, Stored update 17500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.925547
Actual update 17550 of 50000, Stored update 17550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.234896
Actual update 17600 of 50000, Stored update 17600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.489767
Actual update 17650 of 50000, Stored update 17650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.526670
Actual update 17700 of 50000, Stored update 17700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.167239
Actual update 17750 of 50000, Stored update 17750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.989552
Actual update 17800 of 50000, Stored update 17800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.420383
Actual update 17850 of 50000, Stored update 17850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.578978
Actual update 17900 of 50000, Stored update 17900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.082917
Actual update 17950 of 50000, Stored update 17950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.994546
Actual update 18000 of 50000, Stored update 18000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.737308
Actual update 18050 of 50000, Stored update 18050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.301383
Actual update 18100 of 50000, Stored update 18100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.376624
Actual update 18150 of 50000, Stored update 18150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.256216
Actual update 18200 of 50000, Stored update 18200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.354423
Actual update 18250 of 50000, Stored update 18250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.365776
Actual update 18300 of 50000, Stored update 18300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.151473
Actual update 18350 of 50000, Stored update 18350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.658268
Actual update 18400 of 50000, Stored update 18400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.429963
Actual update 18450 of 50000, Stored update 18450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.689373
Actual update 18500 of 50000, Stored update 18500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.667133
Actual update 18550 of 50000, Stored update 18550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.471120
Actual update 18600 of 50000, Stored update 18600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.095606
Actual update 18650 of 50000, Stored update 18650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.740428
Actual update 18700 of 50000, Stored update 18700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.409881
Actual update 18750 of 50000, Stored update 18750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.005522
Actual update 18800 of 50000, Stored update 18800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.237891
Actual update 18850 of 50000, Stored update 18850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.537008
Actual update 18900 of 50000, Stored update 18900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.442116
Actual update 18950 of 50000, Stored update 18950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.226110
Actual update 19000 of 50000, Stored update 19000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.145969
Actual update 19050 of 50000, Stored update 19050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.127366
Actual update 19100 of 50000, Stored update 19100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.175966
Actual update 19150 of 50000, Stored update 19150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.961952
Actual update 19200 of 50000, Stored update 19200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.695160
Actual update 19250 of 50000, Stored update 19250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.941518
Actual update 19300 of 50000, Stored update 19300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.563247
Actual update 19350 of 50000, Stored update 19350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.448230
Actual update 19400 of 50000, Stored update 19400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.560195
Actual update 19450 of 50000, Stored update 19450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.188408
Actual update 19500 of 50000, Stored update 19500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.666260
Actual update 19550 of 50000, Stored update 19550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.666425
Actual update 19600 of 50000, Stored update 19600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.722395
Actual update 19650 of 50000, Stored update 19650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.569078
Actual update 19700 of 50000, Stored update 19700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.236018
Actual update 19750 of 50000, Stored update 19750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.115170
Actual update 19800 of 50000, Stored update 19800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 294.008000
Actual update 19850 of 50000, Stored update 19850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.337836
Actual update 19900 of 50000, Stored update 19900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.437473
Actual update 19950 of 50000, Stored update 19950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.344671
Actual update 20000 of 50000, Stored update 20000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.192476
Actual update 20050 of 50000, Stored update 20050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.052528
Actual update 20100 of 50000, Stored update 20100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.205322
Actual update 20150 of 50000, Stored update 20150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.110119
Actual update 20200 of 50000, Stored update 20200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.216485
Actual update 20250 of 50000, Stored update 20250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.770750
Actual update 20300 of 50000, Stored update 20300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.916611
Actual update 20350 of 50000, Stored update 20350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.082109
Actual update 20400 of 50000, Stored update 20400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.999925
Actual update 20450 of 50000, Stored update 20450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.217510
Actual update 20500 of 50000, Stored update 20500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.322383
Actual update 20550 of 50000, Stored update 20550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.513772
Actual update 20600 of 50000, Stored update 20600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.694547
Actual update 20650 of 50000, Stored update 20650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.078001
Actual update 20700 of 50000, Stored update 20700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.387408
Actual update 20750 of 50000, Stored update 20750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.313680
Actual update 20800 of 50000, Stored update 20800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.978828
Actual update 20850 of 50000, Stored update 20850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.295555
Actual update 20900 of 50000, Stored update 20900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.729608
Actual update 20950 of 50000, Stored update 20950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.850817
Actual update 21000 of 50000, Stored update 21000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.674403
Actual update 21050 of 50000, Stored update 21050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.823031
Actual update 21100 of 50000, Stored update 21100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.991617
Actual update 21150 of 50000, Stored update 21150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.583440
Actual update 21200 of 50000, Stored update 21200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.276616
Actual update 21250 of 50000, Stored update 21250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.968968
Actual update 21300 of 50000, Stored update 21300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.714917
Actual update 21350 of 50000, Stored update 21350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.604389
Actual update 21400 of 50000, Stored update 21400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.281167
Actual update 21450 of 50000, Stored update 21450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.666810
Actual update 21500 of 50000, Stored update 21500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.024881
Actual update 21550 of 50000, Stored update 21550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.830786
Actual update 21600 of 50000, Stored update 21600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.258469
Actual update 21650 of 50000, Stored update 21650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.742704
Actual update 21700 of 50000, Stored update 21700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.780893
Actual update 21750 of 50000, Stored update 21750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.959909
Actual update 21800 of 50000, Stored update 21800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.169302
Actual update 21850 of 50000, Stored update 21850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.871984
Actual update 21900 of 50000, Stored update 21900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.561058
Actual update 21950 of 50000, Stored update 21950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.969141
Actual update 22000 of 50000, Stored update 22000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.472920
Actual update 22050 of 50000, Stored update 22050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 298.687765
Actual update 22100 of 50000, Stored update 22100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.152194
Actual update 22150 of 50000, Stored update 22150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.013718
Actual update 22200 of 50000, Stored update 22200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.772077
Actual update 22250 of 50000, Stored update 22250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.776809
Actual update 22300 of 50000, Stored update 22300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.845775
Actual update 22350 of 50000, Stored update 22350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.166168
Actual update 22400 of 50000, Stored update 22400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.852560
Actual update 22450 of 50000, Stored update 22450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.802541
Actual update 22500 of 50000, Stored update 22500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.509854
Actual update 22550 of 50000, Stored update 22550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.096499
Actual update 22600 of 50000, Stored update 22600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.402296
Actual update 22650 of 50000, Stored update 22650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.538726
Actual update 22700 of 50000, Stored update 22700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.102942
Actual update 22750 of 50000, Stored update 22750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.322808
Actual update 22800 of 50000, Stored update 22800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 247.720547
Actual update 22850 of 50000, Stored update 22850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.697154
Actual update 22900 of 50000, Stored update 22900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.015510
Actual update 22950 of 50000, Stored update 22950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.098006
Actual update 23000 of 50000, Stored update 23000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.913877
Actual update 23050 of 50000, Stored update 23050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.240677
Actual update 23100 of 50000, Stored update 23100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.347324
Actual update 23150 of 50000, Stored update 23150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.191794
Actual update 23200 of 50000, Stored update 23200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.214368
Actual update 23250 of 50000, Stored update 23250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.198315
Actual update 23300 of 50000, Stored update 23300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 248.683124
Actual update 23350 of 50000, Stored update 23350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.696157
Actual update 23400 of 50000, Stored update 23400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.556657
Actual update 23450 of 50000, Stored update 23450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.068394
Actual update 23500 of 50000, Stored update 23500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.877386
Actual update 23550 of 50000, Stored update 23550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.742114
Actual update 23600 of 50000, Stored update 23600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.023307
Actual update 23650 of 50000, Stored update 23650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.692225
Actual update 23700 of 50000, Stored update 23700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.060916
Actual update 23750 of 50000, Stored update 23750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.346353
Actual update 23800 of 50000, Stored update 23800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.984522
Actual update 23850 of 50000, Stored update 23850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.960059
Actual update 23900 of 50000, Stored update 23900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.216180
Actual update 23950 of 50000, Stored update 23950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.043098
Actual update 24000 of 50000, Stored update 24000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.326987
Actual update 24050 of 50000, Stored update 24050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.361010
Actual update 24100 of 50000, Stored update 24100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.190587
Actual update 24150 of 50000, Stored update 24150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.054870
Actual update 24200 of 50000, Stored update 24200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.643488
Actual update 24250 of 50000, Stored update 24250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.729369
Actual update 24300 of 50000, Stored update 24300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.789375
Actual update 24350 of 50000, Stored update 24350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.008349
Actual update 24400 of 50000, Stored update 24400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.827110
Actual update 24450 of 50000, Stored update 24450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.881306
Actual update 24500 of 50000, Stored update 24500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.553440
Actual update 24550 of 50000, Stored update 24550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.292329
Actual update 24600 of 50000, Stored update 24600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.774059
Actual update 24650 of 50000, Stored update 24650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.539126
Actual update 24700 of 50000, Stored update 24700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.796511
Actual update 24750 of 50000, Stored update 24750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.623177
Actual update 24800 of 50000, Stored update 24800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.110517
Actual update 24850 of 50000, Stored update 24850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.826551
Actual update 24900 of 50000, Stored update 24900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.282831
Actual update 24950 of 50000, Stored update 24950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.352438
Actual update 25000 of 50000, Stored update 25000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.431885
Actual update 25050 of 50000, Stored update 25050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.096947
Actual update 25100 of 50000, Stored update 25100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.907204
Actual update 25150 of 50000, Stored update 25150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.226043
Actual update 25200 of 50000, Stored update 25200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.277220
Actual update 25250 of 50000, Stored update 25250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.029536
Actual update 25300 of 50000, Stored update 25300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.941012
Actual update 25350 of 50000, Stored update 25350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.011254
Actual update 25400 of 50000, Stored update 25400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.913803
Actual update 25450 of 50000, Stored update 25450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.527146
Actual update 25500 of 50000, Stored update 25500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.461770
Actual update 25550 of 50000, Stored update 25550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.604501
Actual update 25600 of 50000, Stored update 25600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.542828
Actual update 25650 of 50000, Stored update 25650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.289936
Actual update 25700 of 50000, Stored update 25700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.889018
Actual update 25750 of 50000, Stored update 25750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.412942
Actual update 25800 of 50000, Stored update 25800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.842764
Actual update 25850 of 50000, Stored update 25850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.007296
Actual update 25900 of 50000, Stored update 25900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.665499
Actual update 25950 of 50000, Stored update 25950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.338036
Actual update 26000 of 50000, Stored update 26000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.362902
Actual update 26050 of 50000, Stored update 26050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.528443
Actual update 26100 of 50000, Stored update 26100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.366367
Actual update 26150 of 50000, Stored update 26150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 248.888775
Actual update 26200 of 50000, Stored update 26200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.427090
Actual update 26250 of 50000, Stored update 26250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.560470
Actual update 26300 of 50000, Stored update 26300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.101192
Actual update 26350 of 50000, Stored update 26350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.839561
Actual update 26400 of 50000, Stored update 26400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.760362
Actual update 26450 of 50000, Stored update 26450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.027334
Actual update 26500 of 50000, Stored update 26500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.963896
Actual update 26550 of 50000, Stored update 26550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.799803
Actual update 26600 of 50000, Stored update 26600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.356950
Actual update 26650 of 50000, Stored update 26650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.570169
Actual update 26700 of 50000, Stored update 26700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.404268
Actual update 26750 of 50000, Stored update 26750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.819650
Actual update 26800 of 50000, Stored update 26800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.206375
Actual update 26850 of 50000, Stored update 26850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.002517
Actual update 26900 of 50000, Stored update 26900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.980077
Actual update 26950 of 50000, Stored update 26950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 299.640264
Actual update 27000 of 50000, Stored update 27000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.997400
Actual update 27050 of 50000, Stored update 27050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.736723
Actual update 27100 of 50000, Stored update 27100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.316127
Actual update 27150 of 50000, Stored update 27150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.130157
Actual update 27200 of 50000, Stored update 27200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.840534
Actual update 27250 of 50000, Stored update 27250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.019166
Actual update 27300 of 50000, Stored update 27300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 249.474909
Actual update 27350 of 50000, Stored update 27350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.565945
Actual update 27400 of 50000, Stored update 27400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.281275
Actual update 27450 of 50000, Stored update 27450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.764333
Actual update 27500 of 50000, Stored update 27500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.126930
Actual update 27550 of 50000, Stored update 27550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 298.973005
Actual update 27600 of 50000, Stored update 27600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.310717
Actual update 27650 of 50000, Stored update 27650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.238381
Actual update 27700 of 50000, Stored update 27700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.062115
Actual update 27750 of 50000, Stored update 27750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.100252
Actual update 27800 of 50000, Stored update 27800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.707624
Actual update 27850 of 50000, Stored update 27850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.350386
Actual update 27900 of 50000, Stored update 27900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.522698
Actual update 27950 of 50000, Stored update 27950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.741386
Actual update 28000 of 50000, Stored update 28000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.756994
Actual update 28050 of 50000, Stored update 28050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.953282
Actual update 28100 of 50000, Stored update 28100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.640504
Actual update 28150 of 50000, Stored update 28150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.801311
Actual update 28200 of 50000, Stored update 28200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.253505
Actual update 28250 of 50000, Stored update 28250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.973297
Actual update 28300 of 50000, Stored update 28300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.531541
Actual update 28350 of 50000, Stored update 28350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.389338
Actual update 28400 of 50000, Stored update 28400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.869699
Actual update 28450 of 50000, Stored update 28450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.286494
Actual update 28500 of 50000, Stored update 28500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.389380
Actual update 28550 of 50000, Stored update 28550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.030024
Actual update 28600 of 50000, Stored update 28600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.885568
Actual update 28650 of 50000, Stored update 28650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.012332
Actual update 28700 of 50000, Stored update 28700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.610525
Actual update 28750 of 50000, Stored update 28750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 286.521201
Actual update 28800 of 50000, Stored update 28800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.979265
Actual update 28850 of 50000, Stored update 28850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.583596
Actual update 28900 of 50000, Stored update 28900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.759052
Actual update 28950 of 50000, Stored update 28950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.443302
Actual update 29000 of 50000, Stored update 29000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.018453
Actual update 29050 of 50000, Stored update 29050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.506352
Actual update 29100 of 50000, Stored update 29100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.777698
Actual update 29150 of 50000, Stored update 29150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.663661
Actual update 29200 of 50000, Stored update 29200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.999672
Actual update 29250 of 50000, Stored update 29250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.926692
Actual update 29300 of 50000, Stored update 29300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.423533
Actual update 29350 of 50000, Stored update 29350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.306522
Actual update 29400 of 50000, Stored update 29400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.425094
Actual update 29450 of 50000, Stored update 29450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.842972
Actual update 29500 of 50000, Stored update 29500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.721905
Actual update 29550 of 50000, Stored update 29550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.661954
Actual update 29600 of 50000, Stored update 29600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.489714
Actual update 29650 of 50000, Stored update 29650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.922559
Actual update 29700 of 50000, Stored update 29700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 244.574409
Actual update 29750 of 50000, Stored update 29750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.526604
Actual update 29800 of 50000, Stored update 29800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.893232
Actual update 29850 of 50000, Stored update 29850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.027125
Actual update 29900 of 50000, Stored update 29900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.777670
Actual update 29950 of 50000, Stored update 29950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.746780
Actual update 30000 of 50000, Stored update 30000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.795838
Actual update 30050 of 50000, Stored update 30050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.079826
Actual update 30100 of 50000, Stored update 30100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.135652
Actual update 30150 of 50000, Stored update 30150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.929962
Actual update 30200 of 50000, Stored update 30200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.283396
Actual update 30250 of 50000, Stored update 30250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.949003
Actual update 30300 of 50000, Stored update 30300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.048137
Actual update 30350 of 50000, Stored update 30350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.226241
Actual update 30400 of 50000, Stored update 30400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.767658
Actual update 30450 of 50000, Stored update 30450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.724471
Actual update 30500 of 50000, Stored update 30500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.401001
Actual update 30550 of 50000, Stored update 30550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.915155
Actual update 30600 of 50000, Stored update 30600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.011965
Actual update 30650 of 50000, Stored update 30650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.561239
Actual update 30700 of 50000, Stored update 30700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.027078
Actual update 30750 of 50000, Stored update 30750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.134771
Actual update 30800 of 50000, Stored update 30800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.198497
Actual update 30850 of 50000, Stored update 30850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.169803
Actual update 30900 of 50000, Stored update 30900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.490505
Actual update 30950 of 50000, Stored update 30950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.364869
Actual update 31000 of 50000, Stored update 31000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.504723
Actual update 31050 of 50000, Stored update 31050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.360873
Actual update 31100 of 50000, Stored update 31100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.630198
Actual update 31150 of 50000, Stored update 31150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.198110
Actual update 31200 of 50000, Stored update 31200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.683607
Actual update 31250 of 50000, Stored update 31250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.472913
Actual update 31300 of 50000, Stored update 31300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.611195
Actual update 31350 of 50000, Stored update 31350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.266979
Actual update 31400 of 50000, Stored update 31400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.166317
Actual update 31450 of 50000, Stored update 31450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.332463
Actual update 31500 of 50000, Stored update 31500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.880000
Actual update 31550 of 50000, Stored update 31550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.305821
Actual update 31600 of 50000, Stored update 31600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.130581
Actual update 31650 of 50000, Stored update 31650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.956801
Actual update 31700 of 50000, Stored update 31700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.178665
Actual update 31750 of 50000, Stored update 31750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.769972
Actual update 31800 of 50000, Stored update 31800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.324364
Actual update 31850 of 50000, Stored update 31850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.950039
Actual update 31900 of 50000, Stored update 31900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.058406
Actual update 31950 of 50000, Stored update 31950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.453388
Actual update 32000 of 50000, Stored update 32000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 244.841745
Actual update 32050 of 50000, Stored update 32050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.375914
Actual update 32100 of 50000, Stored update 32100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.748147
Actual update 32150 of 50000, Stored update 32150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.487367
Actual update 32200 of 50000, Stored update 32200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.114272
Actual update 32250 of 50000, Stored update 32250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.452105
Actual update 32300 of 50000, Stored update 32300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.822023
Actual update 32350 of 50000, Stored update 32350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.998158
Actual update 32400 of 50000, Stored update 32400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.743197
Actual update 32450 of 50000, Stored update 32450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.207446
Actual update 32500 of 50000, Stored update 32500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.513792
Actual update 32550 of 50000, Stored update 32550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.848014
Actual update 32600 of 50000, Stored update 32600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.948575
Actual update 32650 of 50000, Stored update 32650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.403954
Actual update 32700 of 50000, Stored update 32700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.933490
Actual update 32750 of 50000, Stored update 32750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.392265
Actual update 32800 of 50000, Stored update 32800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.767957
Actual update 32850 of 50000, Stored update 32850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.061132
Actual update 32900 of 50000, Stored update 32900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.116565
Actual update 32950 of 50000, Stored update 32950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.384029
Actual update 33000 of 50000, Stored update 33000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.828215
Actual update 33050 of 50000, Stored update 33050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.532978
Actual update 33100 of 50000, Stored update 33100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.378719
Actual update 33150 of 50000, Stored update 33150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.271246
Actual update 33200 of 50000, Stored update 33200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.365967
Actual update 33250 of 50000, Stored update 33250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.722037
Actual update 33300 of 50000, Stored update 33300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.709642
Actual update 33350 of 50000, Stored update 33350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.649414
Actual update 33400 of 50000, Stored update 33400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.800948
Actual update 33450 of 50000, Stored update 33450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.758581
Actual update 33500 of 50000, Stored update 33500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.202289
Actual update 33550 of 50000, Stored update 33550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.390862
Actual update 33600 of 50000, Stored update 33600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.402324
Actual update 33650 of 50000, Stored update 33650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.415095
Actual update 33700 of 50000, Stored update 33700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.346016
Actual update 33750 of 50000, Stored update 33750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.619967
Actual update 33800 of 50000, Stored update 33800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.315246
Actual update 33850 of 50000, Stored update 33850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.919016
Actual update 33900 of 50000, Stored update 33900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.558828
Actual update 33950 of 50000, Stored update 33950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.576241
Actual update 34000 of 50000, Stored update 34000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.903082
Actual update 34050 of 50000, Stored update 34050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.276538
Actual update 34100 of 50000, Stored update 34100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.045559
Actual update 34150 of 50000, Stored update 34150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.975352
Actual update 34200 of 50000, Stored update 34200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.923096
Actual update 34250 of 50000, Stored update 34250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.750903
Actual update 34300 of 50000, Stored update 34300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.496660
Actual update 34350 of 50000, Stored update 34350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.602718
Actual update 34400 of 50000, Stored update 34400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.146119
Actual update 34450 of 50000, Stored update 34450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.155954
Actual update 34500 of 50000, Stored update 34500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.887422
Actual update 34550 of 50000, Stored update 34550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.474844
Actual update 34600 of 50000, Stored update 34600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.679243
Actual update 34650 of 50000, Stored update 34650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.403153
Actual update 34700 of 50000, Stored update 34700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.142356
Actual update 34750 of 50000, Stored update 34750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.409064
Actual update 34800 of 50000, Stored update 34800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.020443
Actual update 34850 of 50000, Stored update 34850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.042618
Actual update 34900 of 50000, Stored update 34900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.488306
Actual update 34950 of 50000, Stored update 34950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.686203
Actual update 35000 of 50000, Stored update 35000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.507178
Actual update 35050 of 50000, Stored update 35050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.690189
Actual update 35100 of 50000, Stored update 35100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.482958
Actual update 35150 of 50000, Stored update 35150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.183151
Actual update 35200 of 50000, Stored update 35200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.426391
Actual update 35250 of 50000, Stored update 35250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.216857
Actual update 35300 of 50000, Stored update 35300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.891038
Actual update 35350 of 50000, Stored update 35350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.048028
Actual update 35400 of 50000, Stored update 35400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.722227
Actual update 35450 of 50000, Stored update 35450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.765372
Actual update 35500 of 50000, Stored update 35500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.171740
Actual update 35550 of 50000, Stored update 35550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.561592
Actual update 35600 of 50000, Stored update 35600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.655049
Actual update 35650 of 50000, Stored update 35650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.890427
Actual update 35700 of 50000, Stored update 35700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.475423
Actual update 35750 of 50000, Stored update 35750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.610398
Actual update 35800 of 50000, Stored update 35800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.704047
Actual update 35850 of 50000, Stored update 35850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.732799
Actual update 35900 of 50000, Stored update 35900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.638786
Actual update 35950 of 50000, Stored update 35950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.966883
Actual update 36000 of 50000, Stored update 36000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.004064
Actual update 36050 of 50000, Stored update 36050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.670228
Actual update 36100 of 50000, Stored update 36100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 247.469924
Actual update 36150 of 50000, Stored update 36150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.234617
Actual update 36200 of 50000, Stored update 36200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.765255
Actual update 36250 of 50000, Stored update 36250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.914143
Actual update 36300 of 50000, Stored update 36300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.983410
Actual update 36350 of 50000, Stored update 36350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.199177
Actual update 36400 of 50000, Stored update 36400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.100760
Actual update 36450 of 50000, Stored update 36450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.607973
Actual update 36500 of 50000, Stored update 36500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.636301
Actual update 36550 of 50000, Stored update 36550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.717605
Actual update 36600 of 50000, Stored update 36600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.670572
Actual update 36650 of 50000, Stored update 36650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.582091
Actual update 36700 of 50000, Stored update 36700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.666703
Actual update 36750 of 50000, Stored update 36750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.187426
Actual update 36800 of 50000, Stored update 36800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.670491
Actual update 36850 of 50000, Stored update 36850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.426296
Actual update 36900 of 50000, Stored update 36900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.085366
Actual update 36950 of 50000, Stored update 36950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 294.239142
Actual update 37000 of 50000, Stored update 37000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 243.689281
Actual update 37050 of 50000, Stored update 37050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.772557
Actual update 37100 of 50000, Stored update 37100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.322089
Actual update 37150 of 50000, Stored update 37150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.283195
Actual update 37200 of 50000, Stored update 37200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.254058
Actual update 37250 of 50000, Stored update 37250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.911415
Actual update 37300 of 50000, Stored update 37300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.563979
Actual update 37350 of 50000, Stored update 37350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.071006
Actual update 37400 of 50000, Stored update 37400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.616450
Actual update 37450 of 50000, Stored update 37450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.889156
Actual update 37500 of 50000, Stored update 37500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.239545
Actual update 37550 of 50000, Stored update 37550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.773173
Actual update 37600 of 50000, Stored update 37600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.032890
Actual update 37650 of 50000, Stored update 37650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.822619
Actual update 37700 of 50000, Stored update 37700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.053114
Actual update 37750 of 50000, Stored update 37750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.674816
Actual update 37800 of 50000, Stored update 37800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.615435
Actual update 37850 of 50000, Stored update 37850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.864185
Actual update 37900 of 50000, Stored update 37900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.571227
Actual update 37950 of 50000, Stored update 37950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.685352
Actual update 38000 of 50000, Stored update 38000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.571910
Actual update 38050 of 50000, Stored update 38050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.978478
Actual update 38100 of 50000, Stored update 38100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.551320
Actual update 38150 of 50000, Stored update 38150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.370482
Actual update 38200 of 50000, Stored update 38200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.544729
Actual update 38250 of 50000, Stored update 38250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.051530
Actual update 38300 of 50000, Stored update 38300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.207785
Actual update 38350 of 50000, Stored update 38350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.826090
Actual update 38400 of 50000, Stored update 38400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.601395
Actual update 38450 of 50000, Stored update 38450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.512433
Actual update 38500 of 50000, Stored update 38500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.190044
Actual update 38550 of 50000, Stored update 38550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.913764
Actual update 38600 of 50000, Stored update 38600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.526778
Actual update 38650 of 50000, Stored update 38650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.357163
Actual update 38700 of 50000, Stored update 38700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.018990
Actual update 38750 of 50000, Stored update 38750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.280790
Actual update 38800 of 50000, Stored update 38800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.711152
Actual update 38850 of 50000, Stored update 38850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.426714
Actual update 38900 of 50000, Stored update 38900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.546641
Actual update 38950 of 50000, Stored update 38950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.690057
Actual update 39000 of 50000, Stored update 39000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.511676
Actual update 39050 of 50000, Stored update 39050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.165801
Actual update 39100 of 50000, Stored update 39100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.196426
Actual update 39150 of 50000, Stored update 39150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.426012
Actual update 39200 of 50000, Stored update 39200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.698426
Actual update 39250 of 50000, Stored update 39250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.936868
Actual update 39300 of 50000, Stored update 39300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.715479
Actual update 39350 of 50000, Stored update 39350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.471657
Actual update 39400 of 50000, Stored update 39400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.570267
Actual update 39450 of 50000, Stored update 39450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.842251
Actual update 39500 of 50000, Stored update 39500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.421233
Actual update 39550 of 50000, Stored update 39550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.637359
Actual update 39600 of 50000, Stored update 39600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.986754
Actual update 39650 of 50000, Stored update 39650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.946481
Actual update 39700 of 50000, Stored update 39700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.561501
Actual update 39750 of 50000, Stored update 39750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.000662
Actual update 39800 of 50000, Stored update 39800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.952622
Actual update 39850 of 50000, Stored update 39850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.368445
Actual update 39900 of 50000, Stored update 39900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.435041
Actual update 39950 of 50000, Stored update 39950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.740783
Actual update 40000 of 50000, Stored update 40000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.988097
Actual update 40050 of 50000, Stored update 40050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.721579
Actual update 40100 of 50000, Stored update 40100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.992840
Actual update 40150 of 50000, Stored update 40150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.292658
Actual update 40200 of 50000, Stored update 40200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 293.121850
Actual update 40250 of 50000, Stored update 40250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.403891
Actual update 40300 of 50000, Stored update 40300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.200788
Actual update 40350 of 50000, Stored update 40350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.281493
Actual update 40400 of 50000, Stored update 40400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.233327
Actual update 40450 of 50000, Stored update 40450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.237101
Actual update 40500 of 50000, Stored update 40500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.834040
Actual update 40550 of 50000, Stored update 40550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.941780
Actual update 40600 of 50000, Stored update 40600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.354822
Actual update 40650 of 50000, Stored update 40650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.003456
Actual update 40700 of 50000, Stored update 40700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.871840
Actual update 40750 of 50000, Stored update 40750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.304716
Actual update 40800 of 50000, Stored update 40800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.886777
Actual update 40850 of 50000, Stored update 40850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.127123
Actual update 40900 of 50000, Stored update 40900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.968551
Actual update 40950 of 50000, Stored update 40950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.990012
Actual update 41000 of 50000, Stored update 41000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.001807
Actual update 41050 of 50000, Stored update 41050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.613345
Actual update 41100 of 50000, Stored update 41100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.991613
Actual update 41150 of 50000, Stored update 41150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.020281
Actual update 41200 of 50000, Stored update 41200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.773122
Actual update 41250 of 50000, Stored update 41250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.684461
Actual update 41300 of 50000, Stored update 41300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.796865
Actual update 41350 of 50000, Stored update 41350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.919643
Actual update 41400 of 50000, Stored update 41400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.058074
Actual update 41450 of 50000, Stored update 41450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.480556
Actual update 41500 of 50000, Stored update 41500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.555094
Actual update 41550 of 50000, Stored update 41550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.494401
Actual update 41600 of 50000, Stored update 41600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.119082
Actual update 41650 of 50000, Stored update 41650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 290.309770
Actual update 41700 of 50000, Stored update 41700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.187408
Actual update 41750 of 50000, Stored update 41750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.763296
Actual update 41800 of 50000, Stored update 41800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.370343
Actual update 41850 of 50000, Stored update 41850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.648842
Actual update 41900 of 50000, Stored update 41900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.794613
Actual update 41950 of 50000, Stored update 41950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.094258
Actual update 42000 of 50000, Stored update 42000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.827755
Actual update 42050 of 50000, Stored update 42050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.308429
Actual update 42100 of 50000, Stored update 42100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.446339
Actual update 42150 of 50000, Stored update 42150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.977671
Actual update 42200 of 50000, Stored update 42200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.801061
Actual update 42250 of 50000, Stored update 42250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.780906
Actual update 42300 of 50000, Stored update 42300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.209982
Actual update 42350 of 50000, Stored update 42350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.626913
Actual update 42400 of 50000, Stored update 42400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.518891
Actual update 42450 of 50000, Stored update 42450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.860331
Actual update 42500 of 50000, Stored update 42500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.041922
Actual update 42550 of 50000, Stored update 42550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.636012
Actual update 42600 of 50000, Stored update 42600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 288.158041
Actual update 42650 of 50000, Stored update 42650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.537216
Actual update 42700 of 50000, Stored update 42700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.547049
Actual update 42750 of 50000, Stored update 42750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.748005
Actual update 42800 of 50000, Stored update 42800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.568684
Actual update 42850 of 50000, Stored update 42850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.235035
Actual update 42900 of 50000, Stored update 42900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.210941
Actual update 42950 of 50000, Stored update 42950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.903018
Actual update 43000 of 50000, Stored update 43000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.693501
Actual update 43050 of 50000, Stored update 43050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 252.584794
Actual update 43100 of 50000, Stored update 43100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.429871
Actual update 43150 of 50000, Stored update 43150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.491102
Actual update 43200 of 50000, Stored update 43200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.734396
Actual update 43250 of 50000, Stored update 43250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 256.612411
Actual update 43300 of 50000, Stored update 43300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.363494
Actual update 43350 of 50000, Stored update 43350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.038425
Actual update 43400 of 50000, Stored update 43400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.155507
Actual update 43450 of 50000, Stored update 43450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.985234
Actual update 43500 of 50000, Stored update 43500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 282.351923
Actual update 43550 of 50000, Stored update 43550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.497807
Actual update 43600 of 50000, Stored update 43600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.340054
Actual update 43650 of 50000, Stored update 43650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.208668
Actual update 43700 of 50000, Stored update 43700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.258846
Actual update 43750 of 50000, Stored update 43750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.310888
Actual update 43800 of 50000, Stored update 43800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.342680
Actual update 43850 of 50000, Stored update 43850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.044177
Actual update 43900 of 50000, Stored update 43900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.060293
Actual update 43950 of 50000, Stored update 43950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.618374
Actual update 44000 of 50000, Stored update 44000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.692948
Actual update 44050 of 50000, Stored update 44050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.717952
Actual update 44100 of 50000, Stored update 44100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.604187
Actual update 44150 of 50000, Stored update 44150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.500233
Actual update 44200 of 50000, Stored update 44200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 250.093827
Actual update 44250 of 50000, Stored update 44250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.616995
Actual update 44300 of 50000, Stored update 44300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.268618
Actual update 44350 of 50000, Stored update 44350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.541723
Actual update 44400 of 50000, Stored update 44400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.035387
Actual update 44450 of 50000, Stored update 44450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.024461
Actual update 44500 of 50000, Stored update 44500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.692709
Actual update 44550 of 50000, Stored update 44550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.960976
Actual update 44600 of 50000, Stored update 44600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.525099
Actual update 44650 of 50000, Stored update 44650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 279.213069
Actual update 44700 of 50000, Stored update 44700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.576607
Actual update 44750 of 50000, Stored update 44750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.463042
Actual update 44800 of 50000, Stored update 44800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 281.186590
Actual update 44850 of 50000, Stored update 44850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.504137
Actual update 44900 of 50000, Stored update 44900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.639244
Actual update 44950 of 50000, Stored update 44950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.928525
Actual update 45000 of 50000, Stored update 45000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.838299
Actual update 45050 of 50000, Stored update 45050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.220024
Actual update 45100 of 50000, Stored update 45100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.408286
Actual update 45150 of 50000, Stored update 45150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.167907
Actual update 45200 of 50000, Stored update 45200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.610871
Actual update 45250 of 50000, Stored update 45250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.244069
Actual update 45300 of 50000, Stored update 45300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.850540
Actual update 45350 of 50000, Stored update 45350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.887434
Actual update 45400 of 50000, Stored update 45400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.668004
Actual update 45450 of 50000, Stored update 45450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.333256
Actual update 45500 of 50000, Stored update 45500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 244.941074
Actual update 45550 of 50000, Stored update 45550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.889347
Actual update 45600 of 50000, Stored update 45600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.788147
Actual update 45650 of 50000, Stored update 45650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.135505
Actual update 45700 of 50000, Stored update 45700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.756150
Actual update 45750 of 50000, Stored update 45750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.449301
Actual update 45800 of 50000, Stored update 45800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.366200
Actual update 45850 of 50000, Stored update 45850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.573126
Actual update 45900 of 50000, Stored update 45900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.162690
Actual update 45950 of 50000, Stored update 45950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 289.755878
Actual update 46000 of 50000, Stored update 46000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.454803
Actual update 46050 of 50000, Stored update 46050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.146259
Actual update 46100 of 50000, Stored update 46100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.230595
Actual update 46150 of 50000, Stored update 46150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.492936
Actual update 46200 of 50000, Stored update 46200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 255.160499
Actual update 46250 of 50000, Stored update 46250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.335823
Actual update 46300 of 50000, Stored update 46300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 276.131573
Actual update 46350 of 50000, Stored update 46350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.770012
Actual update 46400 of 50000, Stored update 46400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.332971
Actual update 46450 of 50000, Stored update 46450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.190785
Actual update 46500 of 50000, Stored update 46500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.359221
Actual update 46550 of 50000, Stored update 46550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.947008
Actual update 46600 of 50000, Stored update 46600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 258.387923
Actual update 46650 of 50000, Stored update 46650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.562920
Actual update 46700 of 50000, Stored update 46700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.434982
Actual update 46750 of 50000, Stored update 46750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.736233
Actual update 46800 of 50000, Stored update 46800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.208499
Actual update 46850 of 50000, Stored update 46850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.493081
Actual update 46900 of 50000, Stored update 46900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.707962
Actual update 46950 of 50000, Stored update 46950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.784938
Actual update 47000 of 50000, Stored update 47000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 291.777828
Actual update 47050 of 50000, Stored update 47050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.265176
Actual update 47100 of 50000, Stored update 47100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 259.886470
Actual update 47150 of 50000, Stored update 47150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.323107
Actual update 47200 of 50000, Stored update 47200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.514690
Actual update 47250 of 50000, Stored update 47250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.652553
Actual update 47300 of 50000, Stored update 47300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.161425
Actual update 47350 of 50000, Stored update 47350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.312560
Actual update 47400 of 50000, Stored update 47400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.684030
Actual update 47450 of 50000, Stored update 47450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 284.197732
Actual update 47500 of 50000, Stored update 47500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.505300
Actual update 47550 of 50000, Stored update 47550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.399525
Actual update 47600 of 50000, Stored update 47600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.891931
Actual update 47650 of 50000, Stored update 47650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 260.338295
Actual update 47700 of 50000, Stored update 47700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.882556
Actual update 47750 of 50000, Stored update 47750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.827125
Actual update 47800 of 50000, Stored update 47800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.211661
Actual update 47850 of 50000, Stored update 47850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.908155
Actual update 47900 of 50000, Stored update 47900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 280.834833
Actual update 47950 of 50000, Stored update 47950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.858502
Actual update 48000 of 50000, Stored update 48000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.809754
Actual update 48050 of 50000, Stored update 48050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.274711
Actual update 48100 of 50000, Stored update 48100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.587889
Actual update 48150 of 50000, Stored update 48150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 261.677801
Actual update 48200 of 50000, Stored update 48200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.128777
Actual update 48250 of 50000, Stored update 48250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.061863
Actual update 48300 of 50000, Stored update 48300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 278.653274
Actual update 48350 of 50000, Stored update 48350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 271.684526
Actual update 48400 of 50000, Stored update 48400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.517414
Actual update 48450 of 50000, Stored update 48450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.066281
Actual update 48500 of 50000, Stored update 48500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.568763
Actual update 48550 of 50000, Stored update 48550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.503613
Actual update 48600 of 50000, Stored update 48600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.666555
Actual update 48650 of 50000, Stored update 48650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.720711
Actual update 48700 of 50000, Stored update 48700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 283.033898
Actual update 48750 of 50000, Stored update 48750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 287.209340
Actual update 48800 of 50000, Stored update 48800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 275.348462
Actual update 48850 of 50000, Stored update 48850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 253.265214
Actual update 48900 of 50000, Stored update 48900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 285.691314
Actual update 48950 of 50000, Stored update 48950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 268.206028
Actual update 49000 of 50000, Stored update 49000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.091717
Actual update 49050 of 50000, Stored update 49050 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 263.936023
Actual update 49100 of 50000, Stored update 49100 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 254.865941
Actual update 49150 of 50000, Stored update 49150 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 251.773369
Actual update 49200 of 50000, Stored update 49200 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 266.908249
Actual update 49250 of 50000, Stored update 49250 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 257.480324
Actual update 49300 of 50000, Stored update 49300 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.517252
Actual update 49350 of 50000, Stored update 49350 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.356930
Actual update 49400 of 50000, Stored update 49400 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 273.981931
Actual update 49450 of 50000, Stored update 49450 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 274.237248
Actual update 49500 of 50000, Stored update 49500 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 267.039699
Actual update 49550 of 50000, Stored update 49550 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 270.522018
Actual update 49600 of 50000, Stored update 49600 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.233293
Actual update 49650 of 50000, Stored update 49650 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.747397
Actual update 49700 of 50000, Stored update 49700 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 265.617958
Actual update 49750 of 50000, Stored update 49750 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.065082
Actual update 49800 of 50000, Stored update 49800 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 264.083094
Actual update 49850 of 50000, Stored update 49850 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 262.917837
Actual update 49900 of 50000, Stored update 49900 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 269.747370
Actual update 49950 of 50000, Stored update 49950 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 272.741721
Actual update 50000 of 50000, Stored update 50000 of 50000
-2 * Loglike = 277.022496
PUPN c1003 c1004
AVER c1091 b99 b100

Count   =          50000
Average =          267.88
S.D.    =          9.4380
S.E.M.  =        0.042208

ECHO 0
Execution completed


-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
MLwiN (version: 3.15)  multilevel model (Poisson) 
          N min mean max N_complete min_complete mean_complete max_complete
area     56   1    1   1         56            1             1            1
areahigh 56   1    1   1         56            1             1            1
Estimation algorithm:  MCMC      Cross-classified              Elapsed time : 3.51s 
Number of obs:  56 (from total 56)          Number of iter.: 50000  Chains: 1  Burn-in: 500 
Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)
Dbar      D(thetabar)    pD      DIC
267.883    238.262    29.621     297.504    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The model formula:
log(obs) ~ 0 + perc_aff + offset(offs) + (1 | area) + (1 | areahigh)
Level 3: area     Level 2: areahigh     Level 1: l1id      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The fixed part estimates:  
             Coef.   Std. Err.     z   Pr(>|z|)       [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
perc_aff   0.03735     0.01229  3.04   0.002366  **      0.01299     0.06129   419 
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the area level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]    ESS 
var_Intercept   0.48337     0.19588      0.18417     0.94827   1282 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the areahigh level: 
                  Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]   ESS 
var_Intercept   0.02507     0.03610      0.00091     0.13074   234 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
The random part estimates at the l1id level: 
                Coef.   Std. Err.   [95% Cred.   Interval]     ESS 
var_bcons_1   1.00000     0.00000      1.00000     1.00000   50000 
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 
> 
> # 17.8 Further reading on spatial modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .260
> 
> # Chapter learning outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ############################################################################
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
   8.76    3.09   42.34