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Probabilistic Hazard Analysis workshop

Kyoto Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Japan

DPRI Cabot Institute

DPRI and Cabot Institute

The Cabot Institute held a workshop with colleagues from Kyoto University’s Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) on the topic of probabilistic hazard analysis from Thursday 17 to Saturday 19 May 2012 . 

Please see the links below for more information on the workshop and view the presentations. 

If you would like to discuss the issues covered at these workshops, feel free to post your comments on our blog, or contact us directly.

Full programme

Day 1

Workshop 1 - Climate Change Impacts Assessment (based on KAKUSHIN Project and DEMON Project, focusing the Changing Frequency of Extreme Events such as Typhoons, Floods, Landslides Under Climate Change)   (including insurance related topics)

Leaders: Prof Eiichi Nakakita & Prof Paul Bates

It was exciting to find out how much overlap there was between our research interests and to see the possibilities for future collaboration.

Philippa Bayley - Cabot Institute Manager
Speakers: Prof Tetsuya Takemi (Typhoon) [DPRI], Prof Yasuto Tachikawa (Flood) [DPRI], Professor Paul Bates (Floods, inundation and landslide) [Cabot], Prof Mori (Storm surge)[DPRI], Prof Kenichiro Kobayashi (inundation)[DPRI]

9:05    Prof Nakakita (on the Kakushin and post Kakushin program) [PDF, 3.1 Mb]

9:15     Prof Paul Bates (Flood inundation risk under climate and social change) [Cabot] [PDF, 3.1 Mb]

9:45     Assoc. Prof Tetsuya Takemi (Assessment of Typhoon Disasters by Dynamical Downscaling Simulation) [DPRI] [PDF, 3.7 Mb]

10:05     Prof. Kenichiro Kobayashi (Development of a distributed rainfall-runoff/flood inundation (DRR/FI) model for flood risk management with/without climate change impact) [DPRI] [PDF, 3.7 Mb]

10:40    Prof Mori (Research on Coastal Disasters) [DPRI] [PDF, 4.2 Mb]


Workshop 2 - Decision-making and disaster risk reduction under uncertainty

Leaders: Prof Colin Taylor & Prof Hiroshi Kawase

Keynote talks: Dr Katsu Goda (Earthquake) [Cabot], Prof Colin Taylor (Earthquake) [Cabot], Prof Maruyama (Wind hazard) [DPRI], Prof Willy Aspinall [Cabot, via Skype], Prof Kawase[DPRI], Prof.Nishijima [ DPRI]

Leaders: Prof Colin Taylor & Prof Hiroshi Kawase

12:30     Prof. Kawase (After the unexpected extreme event, the Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake of M9.0, are we all guilty for not including this kind of event in our probabilistic seismic risk estimate?) [PDF, 2.4 Mb]

12:50     Prof Goda (Catastrophic Earthquake Risk Mitigation: Risk Perception & Decision-Making)[Cabot] [PDF, 3.9 Mb]

13:10     Prof Maruyama [DPRI] ( Strong wind risk of structures in Japan and prediction of strong wind) [PDF, 2.5 Mb]

13:30     Prof Nishijima [DPRI] ( Climate model-based probabilistic wind risk assessment under future climate) [PDF, 2.3 Mb]

13:50     Prof Colin Taylor (Earthquake engineering and systems thinking at Bristol) [Cabot] [PDF, 2.8 Mb]

14:10     Prof. Willy Aspinall (Expert group elicitations for quantifying scientific uncertainty: structured protocol and case histories) [Cabot, via skype] [PDF, 2.7 Mb]

14:45    Prof Yasuto Tachikawa (Projection of River Discharge in Japan and Thailand under Climate Change and its Impact on Water Resources) [DPRI] (theme1) [PDF, 5.9 Mb]


Workshop 3 - Current methods in hazard risk assessment and beyond – new mathematics, new models, defining and using worst case scenarios, interconnected hazards, impact-led assessments

Leaders: Dr Jeremy Philips and Prof Hirokazu Tatano

Speakers: Prof Eiichi Nakakita (Meaning of Super typhoon in climate change impact assessment) [DPRI], Prof Masato Iguchi (Volcanic risk)[DPRI],Prof Hirokazu Tatano[DPRI], Dr Jonty Rougier [Cabot, via skype], Dr Jeremy Phillips [Cabot].

Research Introductions: Dr Susanna Jenkins (Impact led assessment), Dr Tamsin Edwards

15:30     Prof Eiichi Nakakita (Importance of thinking worst case scenario in the climate impact assessment on disaster environment ) [DPRI]  [PDF, 6.6 Mb]

15:45    Prof Masato Iguchi (Volcanic activity of Sakurajima volcano, South Kyushu, Japan) [PDF, 4.8 Mb]

16:05     Dr Susanna Jenkins (Modelling volcanic risk) [Cabot] [PDF, 2 Mb]

               Dr Tamsin Edwards (Uncertainty in earth system modelling) [Cabot, Skype] [PDF, 304 Kb]

16:25     Prof Hirokazu Tatano (Dealing with the big one in disaster risk reduction planning: issues and challenges) [PDF, 3.1 Mb]

16:45     Assoc. Prof. Jonty Rougier (Opportunities to implement standard statistical methods and close the gap between hazard and risk) (Skype) [PDF, 167 Kb]

17:05     Assoc. Prof. Jeremy Philips (Modelling Volcanic Ash and Lahars for Hazard Risk Assessment) [PDF, 1.9 Mb]


Workshop 4 - Human Social dimensions of a disaster (Natural Hazard Risk Assessment e.g. Tohoku Earthquake and Radiological Risk Assessment)

Leaders: Prof. Yousuke Yamashiki & Prof Wendy Larner

Speakers: Prof Yosuke Yamashiki (Radiation Run-off) [DPRI], Prof. Wendy Larner [Cabot], Dr Susanna Jenkins (Volcanic hazards) [Cabot], Prof. Muneta Yokomatsu, Dr Fran Lee

9:00     Prof Yosuke Yamashiki (Numerical simulation of Radionuclides Transport through Suspended Material into the Tokyo Bay) [PDF, 5.6 Mb]

9:20     Dr Susannah Jenkins (Assessing eruption impacts) [PDF, 3.5Mb]

9:40     Prof Yokomatsu (Economic Valuation of Catastrophic Disaster Risk) [PDF, 494 Kb]

10:00     Dr. Fran Lee (Investigation of Taiwan media coverage in anxiety over the safety of imported food products from Japan after 3.11 earthquake) [PDF, 489 Kb]

10:15     Dr. Ying Sun (Disaster Risk Reduction Education as Legitimate Peripheral Participation −A Case Study of Okitsu Elementary School) [PDF, 1.5 Mb]

10:30     Prof Wendy Larner (Cabot, Social Science and Law) [PDF, 532 Kb]


Cabot Institute participants

Professor Paul Bates

Professor Colin Taylor

Professor Wendy Larner

Dr Katsu Goda

Dr Jeremy Phillips

Dr Susanna Jenkins

Dr Philippa Bayley

Professor Willy Aspinall (via Skype)

Dr Jonathan Rougier (via Skype)

Tamsin Edwards (via Skype)


DPRI participants

Prof Eiichi Nakakita

Prof Tetsuya Takemi

Prof Kenichiro Kobayashi

Prof Nobuhito Mori

Prof Hiroshi Kawase

Prof Takashi Maruyama

Prof Masato Iguchi

Prof Hirokazu Tatano

Prof Muneta Yokomatsu

Prof Yasuto Tachikawa

Prof Yousuke Yamashiki

Prof Kazuyoshi Nishijima

Dr Fran Lee

Dr Ying Sun


SACI participants

Prof Toshio Nomura (by Skype Participant)

Mr. Shizuka Yanase



Note: some of the documents on this page are in PDF format. In order to view a PDF you will need Adobe Acrobat Reader