Philosophy Research Seminar - Professor Richard Bradley

7 March 2019, 2.00 PM - 7 March 2019, 3.30 PM

Professor Richard Bradley, London School of Economics

G2, Cotham House

Chances and Credences

In this talk I will defend two mutually supporting theses about the relation between chances and credences.

The first is that chances should be identified with the judgements or partial beliefs of a (hypothetical) unbounded and fully informed perfect inductive reasoner and not with any of the possible grounds for her judgements, such as frequencies or propensities.

The second is a conditional version of the Principal Principle, which says that that rational conditional belief given the evidence should go by the expectation of conditional chance given this evidence.


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